This Week in Stocks: 6/23 - 6/29/07

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The Week Ahead
Last Update: 22-Jun-07 11:43 ET

The coming week brings another FOMC meeting. This one is a two-day affair that will culminate Thursday in the release of a policy directive at 2:15 ET.

Like the past 7 meetings, though, the outcome of this FOMC meeting seems all but certain as the committee is expected to leave the fed funds rate unchanged at 5.25%.

That will leave the policy statement itself as the focal point for traders who will be scrutinizing it for any hints on the timing and direction of future rate decisions.

The economic calendar, fittingly, is expected to provide some trading catalysts leading up to, and following, the FOMC meeting as it contains several key reports, the most notable of which is the Personal Income and Spending report on Friday.

The earnings calendar should also provide some catalysts for the market. Walgreen (WAG), Kroger (KR), Nike (NKE), Oracle (ORCL) and General Mills (GIS) are among the luminaries due to report their results.
Below you will find the lineup of key happenings for each day during the week.
________________________________________________________________
Monday, June 25:
  • Earnings: Walgreen (WAG)
  • Economic Data: Existing Home Sales
  • Events: BASF (BF) Investor Day
  • Conferences: Wachovia Securities CEO Summit
  • Fed Speakers: None
Tuesday, June 26:
  • Earnings: Kroger (KR); Lennar (LEN); Nike (NKE); Oracle (ORCL)
  • Economic Data: Consumer Confidence; New Home Sales
  • Events: None
  • Conferences: Jefferies Healthcare Conference
  • Fed Speakers: Chicago President Moskow speaks at Civic Federation's Awards Luncheon
Wednesday, June 27:
  • Earnings: ConAgra (CAG); Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY); Herman Miller (MLHR); Paychex (PAYX); Red Hat (RHT)
  • Economic Data: Durable Orders
  • Events: Dept. of Energy Weekly Inventory Report
  • Conferences: Jefferies Healthcare Conference; Wachovia Securities CEO Summit
  • Fed Speakers: FOMC Meeting
Thursday, June 28:
  • Earnings: Constellation Brands (STZ); General Mills (GIS); KB Home (KBH); Monsanto (MON); Palm (PALM)
  • Economic Data: Q1 GDP - Final; Initial Claims
  • Events: FOMC Decision
  • Conferences: Jefferies Healthcare Conference; Wachovia Securities CEO Summit
  • Fed Speakers: FOMC Decision
Friday, June 29:
  • Earnings: None
  • Economic Data: Personal Income and Spending; Core-PCE; Chicago PMI; Construction Spending; Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
  • Events: None
  • Conferences: None
  • Fed Speakers: None
 
Sunday, June 24, 2007

Frank Russell Slams the Market to the Mat
The stock market got a double-whammy this week. First, it was put buyers slamming the market earlier in the week. Then, Frank Russell & Co. did the same on Friday by radically reconstituting stocks in their widely-held Russell 1000 and 2000 indices, forcing huge index fund selling of major stock holdings. By the end of the week, the market was severely bruised and broken by this "mechanical" churning:

In past years, Russell had waited until the end of June to do this massive restructuring of their indices, but for some ill-conceived reason, they decided to move this event to the week immediately following Quad Witching options and futures expiration -- the most vulnerable time of the year for the stock market as the "big money" tends to go on vacation after May. If you lost money last week, blame Frank Russell and the put buyers for slamming it to the mat, not any kind of either technical or fundamental change.

Of course, if you were trading the market, as you should have been in this trendless environment, you made a lot of money both buying and selling, so perhaps you should thank Frank for his valuable services!

Due to this mechanical selling, creating almost a "mini-crash" in stocks, next week could very well see most of last week's losses reversed and the market soar higher. In fact, crashes always create buying opportunities, so traders are going to have a golden opportunity to buy for the rebound off the mat.

http://marketclues.blogspot.com/
 
did anyone hear the entire interview w/ Abby Joseph Cohen on CNBC just at around noon EST? I only caught the first minute. Please give a recap if you did. The part I caught, she said she thought the Fed didn't need to act to any data yet. Then I went underground into a parking lot and the reception got cut off -- not sure if she qualified that with a statement on them changing the wording for the chance of a rate cut going up? Was she bullish or bearish?
 
LOL, where is thunder5? He doesn't spend much time with us common folk. :D
 
We're stuck in a trading range!..:D..>>>>DOW 150 points in 1 Day<<<<....:sick:
 
AP
Lennar Falls to 2nd-Quarter Loss
Tuesday June 26, 8:04 am ET Lennar Drops to 2nd-Quarter Loss As Housing Downturn Continues; Forecasts 3Q Loss

MIAMI (AP) -- Homebuilder Lennar Corp. said Tuesday it swung to a second-quarter loss as the housing downturn continues, and warned it would likely post a loss in the third quarter as well.
Losses totaled $244.2 million, or $1.55 per share, versus profit of $324.7 million, or $2 per share, in the previous year.
The company said results were hurt by a charge of $1.33 per share related to valuation adjustments and write-offs of option deposits and pre-acquisition costs.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial forecast a profit of 5 cents per share. The estimates typically exclude one-time charges.
Quarterly revenue slid 37 percent to $2.88 billion from $4.58 billion in the prior-year period, which beat the analysts' consensus of $2.58 billion.
"The housing market has continued to deteriorate throughout the second quarter. The supply of new and existing homes has continued to increase resulting in declining home prices across our markets," President and Chief Executive Stuart Miller said in a statement.
Lennar said new home deliveries, excluding unconsolidated entities, fell to 8,940 homes from 12,506 homes in the year-ago period. The average sales price of homes delivered slipped to $298,000 from $322,000 due to higher sales incentives offered to buyers.
Gross margins, including $171.6 million in valuation adjustments, were $193.2 million, or 7.2 percent, versus $946.5 million, or 23.5 percent. The prior-year period included $8.7 million in valuation adjustments.
Gross margins excluding valuation adjustments were $364.8 million, or 13.6 percent, compared with $955.2 million, or 23.7 percent, in the previous year. Lennar attributed the decline to more sales incentives.
Loss on land sales totaled $108.8 million, including $69.4 million of valuation adjustments and $48.9 million of write-offs of deposits and pre-acquisition costs related to approximately 5,400 homesites under option that the company does not intend to buy. Miller said the company anticipates a third-quarter loss due to uncertain market conditions.
 
The market has the shakes this morning. It's bouncing around as if it doesn't know which way its going. If it doesn't know which way it's going, how are we supposed to know? :)
 
"LOL, where is thunder5? He doesn't spend much time with us common folk."


I am as common as they come. I do not post that much because I spend the majority of my time reading all of the insightful posts that help me decide what to do each day. The reason I was partially in the market (60%) is because it seemed to rebound after every drop. I am probably wrong and got out too late or too early but it seems that the market wants to continue to fall right now. Hopefully I did not get out too early and will be able to buy back in at a better price.
 
As of 11:03 am the market is waffleing (is that a word?) about as much as it can . Schizophrenic is probably the best description. I think I will take my medicine for my dizziness prior to deciding on tomorrow's allocation. I'm already too dizzy from looking up from the bottom of the barrel. :o
 
with the futures showing some deep red this AM, the S&P price falls well under the lower bollinger and psar... we all know that falls fast. 100 and 150 DMAs look like the next lines of support. Fed just hinting at an increased chance of a rate cut later this year should encourage some buying. Abby Joseph Cohen said she thinks the Fed will take no action at this FOMC meeting... although many think the dovish tone will be back in the statemet. Maybe one big red candlestick today and then a big green reversal tomorrow?
 
fedgolfer said:
with the futures showing some deep red this AM, the S&P price falls well under the lower bollinger and psar... we all know that falls fast. .....
Maybe one big red candlestick today and then a big green reversal tomorrow?
Click to expand...
I was looking for the big "Kangaroo Tail" today. Big red down morning that takes out support, followed by the snap back rally. It's shaping up nicely but we know any bad news from the subprime/hedge fund area could change all that quickly.

A red morning turning into a green afternoon would be a welcomed change.
 
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