This Week in Stocks: 6/23 - 6/29/07

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A close above 1506 on the S&P and we'll have ourselves an outside reversal day and be looking very good. But that's a good 0.70% from where we are now (~1496). Easier said than done.
 
The reason we "need" get to, and close, above 1506 is because if we don't then it was just a positive day in a down trend market, and we could just lose it back tomorrow. An outside day means a trend change.

It doesn't have to happen right away. I'll give it another 90 minutes. :D
 
The reason we "need" get to, and close, above 1506 is because if we don't then it was just a positive day in a down trend market, and we could just lose it back tomorrow. An outside day means a trend change.

It doesn't have to happen right away. I'll give it another 90 minutes. :D

Just got above 1506 with 15 mins left in the day.
 
KB Home reports unexpected loss

Homebuilder puts quarterly operating loss at $174.2 million, says it continues to see deteriorating market conditions.

June 28 2007: 8:44 AM EDT


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Homebuilder KB Home has become the latest company in its battered sector to report a loss, as it says it continues to see deteriorating market conditions.
KB Home (Charts, Fortune 500) reported a second-quarter operating loss from continuing operations of $174.2 million, or $2.26 a share. A year earlier the company had earnings from continuing operations of $184.4 million, or $2.20 per diluted share
Most of the loss was due to a non-cash charge of $308.2 million related to the writedown in the value of inventory and joint ventures, and the abandonment of land option contracts.
Analysts surveyed by earnings tracker First Call had forecast earnings per share of 7 cents, and while its not immediately clear how they will consider the charges when making comparison of actual results to forecasts, analysts have typically counted those types of charges against results.
On Tuesday, No. 1 homebuilder Lennar (Charts, Fortune 500) reported a loss of $1.55 a share, rather than the forecast narrow profit, due greatly to a similar charges of $1.33 a share. Analysts did not exclude those charges when comparing results to their forecasts.
 
Yesterday sure changed things. Anybody worried that we're getting a little too giddy? So many of us are expecting a post Fed rally. Have you seen the early sentiment survey results? Almost 3 to 1 bulls to bears. :eek:

The good news is, while officially neutral, the AAII sentiment survey was leaning towards overly bearish again with 39% bulls / 36% bears.
 
I think big Ben just blew it. Yields are moving up again. More pain for housing and sub-prime hedge funds.
 
The intra-day is looking shakey. I think they wanted more than Ben gave them.

This quote grabbed me. "However, a sustained moderation in inflation pressure has yet to be convincingly demonstrated." We are treading water and that is it.
 
OK now I hit refresh and everything is back up. Don't blink it's going to change again.
 
This quote grabbed me. "However, a sustained moderation in inflation pressure has yet to be convincingly demonstrated." We are treading water and that is it.

Not exactly the feel good quote everyone was hoping for. At least the markets are up, across the board for now.
 
No one is talking about the possibility of another disinflation scenario because we won't have a recession. The losses in the U.S. subprime mortgage market easily could top $100 billion. That is enough to sink a midsize financial institution or two. And the real-estate losses could be much larger if house prices fall more than a token amount. The Fed will be forced to lower rates by the end of the year - the omnipotent market knows this and will discount the future, so be prepared to ride the wall of worry as the bull market continues. The real-estate speculator didn't worry about me in the last bear market - so I'll not worry about his problems. The Dow all time high of 13,690 is just around the corner again. How low will rates go this time to prevent deflation - look to Japan. They still can't get any inflation going and it's been many years. I say with total short shares now outstanding on the NYSE at 12.47 billion shares the buying to cover these positions will be beautiful if you are in to win. I'll be patiently waiting for Godot.
 
http://www.briefing.com/GeneralCont...or&ArticleId=NS20070629164037AfterHoursReport

Weekly Wrap

Last Update: 29-Jun-07 16:40 ET


Investors' anxiety levels remained high in the past week, as the indices finished only slightly higher despite falling bond yields. Ongoing concerns about the potential spillover effect of a struggling subprime mortgage market and a lack of concerted leadership were the main limiting factors.
Problems at two hedge funds managed by Bear Stearns (BSC), which suffered substantial losses from their exposure to the sub-prime mortgage market, provided the fuel that fed the subprime concerns.
Disappointing new and existing home sales data, and a decline in durable goods orders, which were reported on Wednesday, also kept investors on edge ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy statement onThursday.
Crude oil prices rose, climbing above $70/bbl, after a government report showed an unexpected drop in distillate and gasoline stockpiles. The report exacerbated supply concerns during the peak summer driving season, and contributed to ongoing inflationary pressures.
As expected, the FOMC left the fed funds rate at 5.25% for an eighth straight meeting, despite lingering concerns about weakness in the economy as problems in subprime lending have weighed on a housing recovery and have created unease in the financial markets.
The accompanying policy statement was little changed, except for a mention that core rates of inflation have eased in recent months but that a sustained moderation in inflation pressures has yet to be convincingly demonstrated. The central bank retained the statement that the predominant policy concern is inflation.
Accordingly, there was nothing in the statement to suggest that the Fed is inclined to change the fed funds rate anytime soon - either up or down.
Stocks ended little changed on Thursday following the decision.
On Friday the Commerce Department reported that consumer spending rose 0.5% in May, with the core PCE deflator up just 0.1%. The year/year increase of 1.9% in the core rate is below the Fed's 2007 forecast of 2.00% to 2.25%.
The core-PCE number provided some initial support, but separate reports that car bombs had been discovered (and defused) in London added to current geo-polical risks and contributed to a reversal in stocks that had been precipitated by a pullback in the financial sector.
Merger activity continued in the past week, but true to recent form, there weren't any blockbuster deals to get the broader market running.
In other developments, Apple (AAPL) launched its highly-anticipated iPhone Friday. That launch gave Apple's stock a modest boost, but it did little for the overall market other than to serve as a major talking point going into the weekend.
 
http://www.briefing.com/GeneralCont...or&ArticleId=NS20070629164037AfterHoursReport

The Week Ahead

Last Update: 29-Jun-07 12:45 ET

We are deviating a bit from our normal "Week Ahead" format due simply to the fact that there would be a lot of empty space on the page if we stuck by the regular format this week.
The Independence Day holiday is the reason for the change, as it has understandably caused the pushback of scheduled activity in the corporate world.
There aren't any investment conferences in the coming week and the earnings calendar is essentially empty.
San Francisco Fed President Yellen, meanwhile, is the only Fed official scheduled to give a speech. Yellen will be in Singapore on Friday to talk about the international dimension of risk as it relates to capital flows and asset prices.
The one area of interest during the week will be the economic front, which features the ISM Index, a report on national manufacturing activity, at the beginning of the week (July 2) and the June employment report at the end of the week (July 6).
Added detail on those reports, and other less influential ones, can be found via the links on our Economic Calendar page.
In observance of the Fourth of July holiday, the Bank of England will convene to discuss how England ever lost the Revolutionary War. We're kidding! The Bank of England, however, does start a two-day policy meeting on the fourth while the European Central Bank is scheduled to hold its policy meeting on the fifth.
The stock market will close early at 1:00 ET on Tuesday, July 3, and will remain closed on the Fourth of July. Trading will resume in its regular fashion on Thursday.
 
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