This Month in Stocks January: 12/28 - 02/01/2008

Re: This Month in Stocks January: 12/28 - 02/01/2007

I thought he was not speaking untill 1 pm eastern. PPT to the rescue!!! Gimme some tax rebates to boot!
 
Re: This Month in Stocks January: 12/28 - 02/01/2007

I'd prefer to have dividend reinvestment income tax free for a year - that would help the economy.
 
Re: This Month in Stocks January: 12/28 - 02/01/2007

http://www.briefing.com/GeneralCont...vestor&ArticleId=NS20080111080540LookingAhead

The Week Ahead

Last Update: 11-Jan-08 08:04 ET

There will be plenty to keep investors busy as earnings season enters full-swing and a bevy of economic data are released next week. Investors anxiously await the reports, looking to assess the performance of several financial firms amid deteriorating housing and credit markets.

December's Producer and Consumer Price Indices will provide the latest glimpse of inflationary pressure. Concerns have risen that intensifying price pressures will prevent the Fed from lowering interest rates. However, testimony from Fed Chairman Bernanke will likely address those concerns specifically. An outline of additional economic data can be previewed on our Economic Calendar.

Several widely held companies are slated to report quarterly results next week. The schedule is weighted with financial service firms. Investors will watch intently as Citigroup (C), State Street (ST), JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Merrill Lynch (MER), and Washington Mutual (WM) all announce earnings. A complete list of all companies reporting can be previewed on Briefing.com's Earnings Calendar.
________________________________________________________________
Monday, January 14:
  • Earnings: M&T Bank (MTB), Genentech (DNA)
  • Economic Data: None
  • Events: None
  • Conferences: No conferences are currently scheduled
  • Fed Speakers: None
Tuesday, January 15:
  • Earnings: Citigroup (C), Forest Labs (FRX), Marshall & Ilsley (MI), State Street (STT), US Bancorp (USB), Intel (INTC)
  • Economic Data: December Retail Sales, December Producer Price Index, January's New York Empire State Index, November Business Inventories
  • Events: None
  • Conferences: No conferences are currently scheduled
  • Fed Speakers: None
Wednesday, January 16:
  • Earnings: AMR Corp(AMR), ASML Holding (ASML), JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Northern Trust (NTRS), Wells Fargo (WFC), Logitech Int'l (LOGI)
  • Economic Data: December Consumer Price Index, December Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, Fed's Beige Book
  • Events: None
  • Conferences: No conferences are currently scheduled
  • Fed Speakers: None
Thursday, January 17:
  • Earnings: Bank of New York (BK), BB&T Corp (BBT), BlackRock (BLK), Comerica (CMA), Continental Air (CAL), Huntington Banc (HBAN), Merrill Lynch (MER), Parker Hannifin (PH), PNC Bank (PNC), PPG Industries (PPG), TD Ameritrade (AMTD), IBM (IBM), Seagate Tech (STX), Washington Mutual (WM)
  • Economic Data: December Housing Starts and Building Permits, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (Week Ending Jan. 12), Weekly Crude Inventories (Week Ending Jan. 12), January Philadelphia Fed Survey
  • Events: None
  • Conferences: No conferences are currently scheduled
  • Fed Speakers: Fed Chairman Bernanke testifies on the economic outlook to House Budget Committee (10:00 AM ET), Dallas Fed President Fisher discusses global trade in Philadelphia (12:30 PM ET), Atlanta Fed President Lockhart speaks about economic outlook in Alabama (1:15 PM ET)
Friday, January 18:
  • Earnings: Schlumberger(SLB), Wilmington Trust (WL)
  • Economic Data: December Leading Indicators, University of Michigan's Preliminary Consumer Sentiment Survey for January
  • Events: None
  • Conferences: No conferences are currently scheduled
  • Fed Speakers: Richmond Fed President Lacker discusses the economic outlook in Richmond (8:00 AM ET)
--Jeffrey Ham, Briefing.com
 
Re: This Month in Stocks January: 12/28 - 02/01/2007

http://www.briefing.com/GeneralCont...vestor&ArticleId=NS20080111080540LookingAhead

The Week Ahead

Last Update: 11-Jan-08 08:04 ET

There will be plenty to keep investors busy as earnings season enters full-swing and a bevy of economic data are released next week. Investors anxiously await the reports, looking to assess the performance of several financial firms amid deteriorating housing and credit markets.

December's Producer and Consumer Price Indices will provide the latest glimpse of inflationary pressure. Concerns have risen that intensifying price pressures will prevent the Fed from lowering interest rates. However, testimony from Fed Chairman Bernanke will likely address those concerns specifically. An outline of additional economic data can be previewed on our Economic Calendar.

Several widely held companies are slated to report quarterly results next week. The schedule is weighted with financial service firms. Investors will watch intently as Citigroup (C), State Street (ST), JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Merrill Lynch (MER), and Washington Mutual (WM) all announce earnings. A complete list of all companies reporting can be previewed on Briefing.com's Earnings Calendar.
________________________________________________________________
Monday, January 14:
  • Earnings: M&T Bank (MTB), Genentech (DNA)
  • Economic Data: None
  • Events: None
  • Conferences: No conferences are currently scheduled
  • Fed Speakers: None
Tuesday, January 15:
  • Earnings: Citigroup (C), Forest Labs (FRX), Marshall & Ilsley (MI), State Street (STT), US Bancorp (USB), Intel (INTC)
  • Economic Data: December Retail Sales, December Producer Price Index, January's New York Empire State Index, November Business Inventories
  • Events: None
  • Conferences: No conferences are currently scheduled
  • Fed Speakers: None
Wednesday, January 16:
  • Earnings: AMR Corp(AMR), ASML Holding (ASML), JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Northern Trust (NTRS), Wells Fargo (WFC), Logitech Int'l (LOGI)
  • Economic Data: December Consumer Price Index, December Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, Fed's Beige Book
  • Events: None
  • Conferences: No conferences are currently scheduled
  • Fed Speakers: None
Thursday, January 17:
  • Earnings: Bank of New York (BK), BB&T Corp (BBT), BlackRock (BLK), Comerica (CMA), Continental Air (CAL), Huntington Banc (HBAN), Merrill Lynch (MER), Parker Hannifin (PH), PNC Bank (PNC), PPG Industries (PPG), TD Ameritrade (AMTD), IBM (IBM), Seagate Tech (STX), Washington Mutual (WM)
  • Economic Data: December Housing Starts and Building Permits, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (Week Ending Jan. 12), Weekly Crude Inventories (Week Ending Jan. 12), January Philadelphia Fed Survey
  • Events: None
  • Conferences: No conferences are currently scheduled
  • Fed Speakers: Fed Chairman Bernanke testifies on the economic outlook to House Budget Committee (10:00 AM ET), Dallas Fed President Fisher discusses global trade in Philadelphia (12:30 PM ET), Atlanta Fed President Lockhart speaks about economic outlook in Alabama (1:15 PM ET)
Friday, January 18:
  • Earnings: Schlumberger(SLB), Wilmington Trust (WL)
  • Economic Data: December Leading Indicators, University of Michigan's Preliminary Consumer Sentiment Survey for January
  • Events: None
  • Conferences: No conferences are currently scheduled
  • Fed Speakers: Richmond Fed President Lacker discusses the economic outlook in Richmond (8:00 AM ET)
--Jeffrey Ham, Briefing.com



Good Information ShowMe, Mark your calender's people. Next week is going to be fun. :)

Thanks!
 
Re: This Month in Stocks January: 12/28 - 02/01/2007

One more piece for the jigsaw puzzle (or whipsaw puzzle, depending). :cool:
I've learned to pay attention to OPEX dates - which our next one happens to be next Friday.
Provided is OPEX calender for 2008... http://www.optionsclearing.com/publications/xcal/xcal2008.pdf

Besides reading that "volatility" can be expected, on this day, and days, even week surrounding OPEX (as if we didn't already have enough volatility already) - I've heard rumor that, specifically, yesterday was result of folks dumping "puts" ahead of the upcoming OPEX (next Friday)!
Now, I don't pose to know much about these monthly events, so would love to hear more from anyone more knowedgeable in how these affect "normal" market's activity.
VR
 
Re: This Month in Stocks January: 12/28 - 02/01/2007

More corruption on Wall Street. Just prior to the CFC aquisition announcement, 2 blocks of Jan 5 CFC Calls crossed on seperate exchanges. Hopefully the SEC does the right thing and follows up on this.

www.wsj.com
 
Re: This Month in Stocks January: 12/28 - 02/01/2007

More corruption on Wall Street. Just prior to the CFC aquisition announcement, 2 blocks of Jan 5 CFC Calls crossed on seperate exchanges. Hopefully the SEC does the right thing and follows up on this.
www.wsj.com

Bullitt,
Man, if SEC doesn't investigate that, well, then all you can conclude is that "pick and choose" is their REAL business. :rolleyes:

BTW, regarding selling on Friday that I posited: more I thought, I'm not sure if the big selling I heard was "puts" or "calls" (but recall market was up two days preceeding) -so maybe instead it was "calls" that were dumped? :suspicious: (trying to learn, but still not clear on options/expirations days).
Thanks
VR
 
Re: This Month in Stocks January: 12/28 - 02/01/2007

Show:
I like Ocar's stuff -(thanks for posting those!)

Check this -regarding what I've been trying to get at:
Sunday, January 13, 2008


Wednesday's low for the COMP came close to testing the August lows. Will it be enough? Note that on the monthly chart, the actual August low (2386) now corresponds to the long term bull market trendline. Very often, we put in lows the week before option expiration week. Bulls are hoping this is the case since December opex was a bloodbath. It will be critical to not make new lows on Monday.

Shorts should take note that as long as the trendline holds, the Nasdaq is still in the 2003 bull market. It sure does not look promising for bulls, but it must be pointed out especially given the unanimous negativity out there. Frankly, I don't remember sentiment being this lousy in a long time. Heck, it's much worse than when we were dropping post 2000.
Like to hear your opinion!
VR
http://aheadoftheNews.com
 
Re: This Month in Stocks January: 12/28 - 02/01/2007

I think that after watching Oscar I would say that the technicals are telling us that support is forming and giving us a heads up on the data that is coming out soon. We have important ED and earnings this week and the PPT may ride in to save the day.

We are at a point that the information being presented will make or break support. If the earning and guidance come in weak it will hurt. If inflation comes in hot it will hurt. If the PPT does not doing something to appease the Street, it will hurt. A rate cut will come and it will cause inflation to climb. Million dollar question is how much of a rate cut?

I can't speak for the NASDAQ, but I will say I do like my entry point on the C and S fund. If it breaks support I will crawl back to my G/F fund cave and lick my wounds.

I play patterns, moving average cross overs, and seasonality for right now. I feel like we will move up and hit resistance, then move back down. I just hope we have not already hit resistance and the news this week is not all bad. I want a small move up in PPI and CPI. No blow outs like last month. I may take some or all off the table Tuesday. I feel like PPI will be OK but CPI will rocket. Go COLA!

One other thing is the UK's inflation report for Dec. comes out Tuesday. That will be interesting.
 
Re: This Month in Stocks January: 12/28 - 02/01/2007

AP
Consumer Spending Slowdown Deepens
Monday January 14, 5:18 pm ET
By Anne D'Innocenzio, AP Business Writer Consumer Spending Shows Dramatic Slowing, Possibly Tipping Economy Into Recession

NEW YORK (AP) -- More evidence of a dramatic slowdown in consumer spending surfaced Monday, as Sears Holdings Corp. warned that a drop in sales would result in a profit shortfall and the world's largest retail trade group issued a downbeat sales forecast for 2008.

Shares dropped among retailers from jewelry chain Zales Inc. to Saks Inc., which operates luxury retailer Saks Fifth Avenue, as the spending malaise appeared to deepen and spread beyond lower and middle-income shoppers to more affluent consumers. The decline in retailers' stocks continued a yearlong downward trend.

Consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of the nation's economic activity, had been showing resilience even as gas prices rose and the housing market fell. But recent data point to a sharper pullback, a trend that may tip the economy into recession.

American Express Co., whose customers are generally affluent, said Thursday it expects slower spending and more missed payments on credit card bills to hurt its profit throughout 2008. Upscale jewelry retailer Tiffany Co. cut its 2007 profit outlook on Friday as it reported a 2 percent decline in same-store sales, or sales at stores opened at least a year, during the holiday period.

On Monday, Sears Holdings, which owns Sears and Kmart stores, blamed growing competition, the housing market slump and consumers' credit fears for sales figures that were expected to slash fourth-quarter profit by as much as 57 percent from the year-ago period. Meanwhile, the National Retail Federation predicted retail sales in 2008 will grow at the weakest pace in six years.

The reports come on the heels of sales reports Thursday by major retailers that showed the weakest holiday period since 2002.

"When all is said and done, we have probably entered into a recession. The weakness in the holiday season was the tipping point," said Carl Steidtmann, chief economist at Deloitte Research, who forecasts a decline in consumer spending that takes inflation into account in coming months. It would be the first since 1991, when the savings and loans crisis precipitated a recession.


Steidtmann noted that rising employment and incomes had helped offset surging gasoline prices and mortgage payments, but with the job market showing signs of faltering, shoppers are losing their nerve. On Jan. 4, the Labor Department said hiring practically stalled in December, driving the nation's unemployment rate to a two-year high of 5 percent. For all of 2007, wages increased 3.7 percent, less than the 4.3 percent gain in 2006.

"Consumers are feeling very pinched," Steidtmann added. He said signs the "aspirational luxury" customer is retrenching are disconcerting, though the super wealthy are still spending. Any retrenchment of the affluent has negative consequences not only for stores, but for the boating industry and other luxury sectors, he said.

Some economists, including Rosalind Wells, are not predicting a recession but acknowledge a slowdown.

"The consumer is full of anxiety," said Wells, chief economist at the National Retail Federation, which said total retail sales are slated to grow 3.5 percent in 2008. That's below last year's estimated 4 percent pace and marks the weakest growth since 2002, when retail sales climbed 3 percent. The retail sales figure excludes automobiles, gas stations and restaurants. The final 2007 figure will not be known until Tuesday, when the Commerce Department is slated to report December's total retail sales figures.

Wells believes that further interest-rate cuts, along with a stimulus package from the government, could improve spending in the second half. Still, the worry is that such moves may help the economy, but they could be too late to make shoppers spend again.

Clearly, the holiday season showed shoppers are so financially squeezed, they are not only trading down to cheaper stores such as wholesale clubs but to cheaper brands within stores. Drug store chain Walgreen Co. reported early this month that shoppers are gravitating toward store label brands as they look for value. Grocery chain Supervalu Inc. reduced its full-year profit outlook last week, saying shoppers are focusing on its cheaper brands.

"I don't care whether the economy is in a recession, the consumer is in a recession," said Patricia Edwards, a retail analyst with Wentworth, Hauser and Violich. "When you are not buying name-brand cough syrup, something is going on."

Investors are becoming pessimistic, pushing down stocks among a wide variety of retailers Monday. While Saks' shares rose less than a penny, to $15.94 in trading Monday, Sears' stock plunged 5 percent, or $4.79, to $91.38. Zales' shares fell almost 5 percent, or 64 cents, to $13.08 in Monday trading. The Dow Jones index that tracks retailers' stocks fell about 9 percent in the past month and has fallen 9 percent in the past year.

Edwards and other analysts believe that stores' woes will translate to closings and reduced expansions. She expects mall-based apparel chains such as Gap Inc. and Chico's FAS Inc. to close some stores, while big department chains -- including J.C. Penney Co. and Kohl's Inc. -- will probably pare their growth.

As for Sears, Edwards noted its future looked more uncertain.
"It's not a fierce enough competitor to make it big" in this economic climate, she added.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080114/outlook_retail_sales.html?printer=1
 
Re: This Month in Stocks January: 12/28 - 02/01/2007

Bring on that stimulus package, baby! Daddy needs a new Glock!!!
 
Re: This Month in Stocks January: 12/28 - 02/01/2007

Hi Show,
I just can't say I have any faith left in our Gov't (or reps), probably worked too long inside the Beltway (DC). Its unfortunate, because I really do want to believe. Hope we see more than talk, for this "stimulus" package. :rolleyes:
PS My passion's always been custom, 1911s (single stack), but hey, lots of folks like Glocks.
http://www.edbrown.com/cgi-bin/start.cgi/customhandguns.htm
 
Last edited:
Re: This Month in Stocks January: 12/28 - 02/01/2007

Hi Show,
I just can't say I have any faith left in our Gov't (or reps), probably worked too long inside the Beltway (DC). Its unfortunate, because I really do want to believe. Hope we see more than talk, for this "stimulus" package. :rolleyes:
PS My passion's always been custom, 1911s (single stack), but hey, lots of folks like Glocks.
http://www.edbrown.com/cgi-bin/start.cgi/customhandguns.htm

LOL I can't afford his guns and he live outside my back door. :laugh:
 
Re: This Month in Stocks January: 12/28 - 02/01/2007

Now on the C fund there is a "perfect" "Bearish Harami" and I pasted a explanation to follow. Now I did not know that was coming until after the close and was able to identify it. The current short term trend is up with the bounce so the Harami is signaling a down reversal.

Here is the S&P chart to look at: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SP...d=p26694867262



Bearish Harami
1.gif
A trend indicated by a large candlestick followed by a much smaller candlestick whose body is located within the vertical range of the larger candle's body. Such a pattern is an indication that the previous upward trend is coming to an end.

bearishharami.gif

2.gif
A bearish harami may be formed from a combination of a large white or black candlestick, and a smaller white or black candlestick. The smaller the second candlestick, the more likely the reversal. It is thought to be a strong sign that a trend is ending when a large white candle stick is followed by a small black candlestick.
 
Re: This Month in Stocks January: 12/28 - 02/01/2007

I would like to make a guaranteed 9% dividend on my investments. These investment banks are so bad off they are whoring themselves out to anyone with the cash.


AP
Merrill Lynch to Get $6.6B Investment
Tuesday January 15, 6:24 am ET
By Stephen Bernard, AP Business Writer 3 Foreign Funds to Invest a Combined $6.6 Billion in Merrill Lynch

NEW YORK (AP) -- Merrill Lynch & Co. said Tuesday it reached agreements with three foreign investment funds to raise $6.6 billion.

The Korean Investment Corp., Kuwait Investment Authority and Mizuho Corporate Bank will receive mandatory convertible preferred stock for their combined $6.6 billion investment. All will be passive investors and none will have any rights of control.

The preferred stock will pay a 9 percent dividend and will be convertible to common stock in two years and nine months.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080115/merrill_lynch.html
 
Re: This Month in Stocks January: 12/28 - 02/01/2007

CitiGroup worse than expected.

-1.03/-0.83 expected came in at -1.99

PPI is next.
 
Re: This Month in Stocks January: 12/28 - 02/01/2007

Quote of the day:

"American financial mismanagement has brought us to this economic meltdown," said Francis Lun, a general manager at Fulbright Securities in Hong Kong. "Asian stock markets are all suffering; nobody has escaped."

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080116/world_markets.html
 
Re: This Month in Stocks January: 12/28 - 02/01/2007

Look at that. We haven't seen a reading below 30 since... I don't know, the chart doesn't go back far enough. Still think it's a good time to be in Gold? Chart courtesy of MarketGauge.com

CAAIISR.GIF
 
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