This Month in Stocks: 11/3 - 11/30/07

[Show-me]

Me thinks someone change a policy on us without a heads up because we missed a trading day.

 

[Show-me]

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?d=v1&s=^n300,+^n225,+^aord,+^nz50,+^hsi,+000001.SS

The Asian markets sure did make a turn last night. No legs!!! Australia could not even eek out a little green.

I feared this yesterday when the FREAK'N STELLAR PPI numbers came in and the market did not do anything but range before the cut off time. Then a late day sell off. Come on!!!! What are the big boyz not tell'n us?

 

[Show-me]

Not hearing any excitement in the voices to the Squawk Box crew.

My friend and co-worker made a comment about retail in the US. Basically he said that if JC Penny hits the skids look out retail spending over Christmas because JC Penny is a major bellwether company.

Two third consumer driven economy.


AP
J.C. Penney 3Q Profit Down, Cuts Outlook
Thursday November 15, 8:19 am ET J.C. Penney Profit Falls 9 Pct in 3rd Quarter, Hurt by Weak Sales, Lowers 4Q Outlook

PLANO, Texas (AP) -- J.C. Penney Co. said Thursday its third-quarter profit fell 9 percent, hurt by weak sales in September and October, and the department store operator slashed its fourth-quarter outlook.

Its shares fell about 4 percent in premarket trading.

Earnings for the quarter ended Nov. 3 fell to $261 million, or $1.17 per share, from $287 million, or $1.26 per share, during the same period last year. Excluding 14 cents per share from state and federal tax benefits, net income was $1.03 per share.

Revenue fell 1 percent to $4.73 billion from $4.78 billion last year. Same-store sales, or sales in stores open at least one year, a key barometer of a retailer's health, fell 3.5 percent.

Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expected a profit of $1.01 per share on revenue of $4.76 billion.

The company said sales were good in early fall, but weakened "dramatically" in September and October, hurt by a difficult retail environment for consumers and unseasonable weather.

Consumers are being pressured to curb discretionary spending due to a weak housing market, credit concerns and high food and gas prices.
The company cut fourth-quarter guidance significantly, to between $1.65 and $1.80 per share from previous guidance of $2.41 per share. Analysts expect a profit of $1.98 per share.

Its shares fell $2.03, or 4.3 percent, to $44.70 in premarket trading Thursday.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071115/earns_j_c_penney.html

 

[Show-me]

EU inflation rises in October

Price index rose to 2.6 percent on higher fuel and food costs.

November 15 2007: 8:30 AM EST

BRUSSELS, Belgium (AP) -- Annual inflation rose to 2.6 percent in October for the 13 countries that use the euro due to higher fuel and food prices, the EU statistics agency said Thursday.

The increase may increase pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates.

The price index rose from 2.1 percent in September, and marks a two-year high despite the strong euro currency which continues to offer European industry and consumers some shelter from high global energy prices.

It was the highest inflation rate since September 2005. Eurostat said the hike was mostly due to the increased cost of transport and food, notably milk, cheese, eggs, bread and cereals, all of which have seen prices rise in supermarkets due to a global shortage of cereals like wheat, oats and rye.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/15/news/international/bc.apfn.eu.inflation.ap/index.htm

 

[CountryBoy]

John Bogel is being interviewed on CNBC and the overall impression I'm getting is the market is going to be down for the rest of the year. He did say go into a CP mode and he see's a recession coming in the next 12 - 18 months, at a 75% chance. He doesn't trust the government figures. He also doesn't think the feds will make any further moves in December.

I hope someone else, more versed than me in economics and the market is seeing this interview and can add their thoughts. I'm really not comfortable drawing conclusions from such an interview.

CB

 

[Show-me]

John Bogel is being interviewed on CNBC and the overall impression I'm getting is the market is going to be down for the rest of the year. He did say go into a CP mode and he see's a recession coming. He doesn't trust the government figures.

I hope someone else, more versed than me in economics and the market is seeing this interview and can add their thoughts. I'm really not comfortable drawing conclusions from such an interview.

CB

Yea, I watched the same piece the "crew" hated it when he said the Government numbers could not be trusted and the Chinese Government number were to be even less trusted. lol

They asked him what the chance of recession was and he told them 75% and they very respectfully hounded him about it. LOL

Ya gotta luv that Rick Santelli, straight shooter and no BS.

 

[CountryBoy]

Yea, I watched the same piece the "crew" hated it when he said the Government numbers could not be trusted and the Chinese Government number were to be even less trusted. lol

They asked him what the chance of recession was and he told them 75% and they very respectfully hounded him about it. LOL

Ya gotta luv that Rick Santelli, straight shooter and no BS.

Yeah it was an enjoyable interview and though I'm normally a bull, I think we're going to be in for some tough times (more down than up), but that probably won't slow me down to much try to ride that bull. :nuts:

CB

 

[Bullitt]

Smart money must think some stocks have been unjustly hammered recently. Buffet increases stake in USB by 76%, BNI by 35%, and WFC by 8%. RBS Partners establishes a position in HD and adds 3 million shares to their position in C in Q3. Activist Carl Icahn becomes the #3 largest shareholder of MOT in Q3.

 

[Silverbird]

EU inflation rises in October

Price index rose to 2.6 percent on higher fuel and food costs.

November 15 2007: 8:30 AM EST

http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/15/news/international/bc.apfn.eu.inflation.ap/index.htm

Now there's a real measure for inflation, why do we toss out fuel and food costs in the U.S. calculations? Makes no sense.

 

[Show-me]

Now there's a real measure for inflation, why do we toss out fuel and food costs in the U.S. calculations? Makes no sense.

Because it would make things look as bad as they are on the days that gasoline is $3.25 a gallon. No matter how volatile food and energy are we still have to pay for it.

 

[Cortez]

Because it would make things look as bad as they are on the days that gasoline is $3.25 a gallon. No matter how volatile food and energy are we still have to pay for it.

The "volatility" is one of higher highs and higher lows in the swings.
The powers that be could easily create a formula to average out food and fuel volatility using a 6 or 12 month running average and use that data as part of CPI. Of course, it is omitted for a more nefarious reason.

 

[CountryBoy]

Smart money must think some stocks have been unjustly hammered recently. Buffet increases stake in USB by 76%, BNI by 35%, and WFC by 8%. RBS Partners establishes a position in HD and adds 3 million shares to their position in C in Q3. Activist Carl Icahn becomes the #3 largest shareholder of MOT in Q3.

WFC has been my financial sector ROTH stock, from the beginning of my ROTH opening last fall, and I increased it about 25% just last week. WFC has held up well. I got lucky and sold C, before it headed down. I bought a little BNI a couple of months ago, pretty much because of Buffet's increase and I didn't have anything in that sector.

Unfortunately, I've pretty much hit mine and my wife's ROTH limits for the year, and gotta be pretty judicious with whats left, but as my wife says, now we can pay for Christmas. But all ain't lost, just adding some gold in the form of jewelry for my wife, more than one way to skin that unvestment cat.

CB

 

[Show-me]

Reuters
Philly Fed Nov factory index jumps but outlook dim
Thursday November 15, 12:44 pm ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Factory activity in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region jumped in November, a survey showed on Thursday, although employment fell and companies' forecasts for the future darkened.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank said its business activity index was at 8.2 in November versus 6.8 in October. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a reading of 5.0.

Any reading above zero indicates growth in manufacturing in factories in eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware.

"It appears as if manufacturing is attempting to hold its own in the final months of 2007. There's no evidence yet in the diffusion indices of outright contraction in factory activity," said William Sullivan, chief economist at JVB Financial Group in Boca Raton, Florida.

The Dow Jones industrial average (DJI:^DJI - News) briefly turned positive after the report but the broader stock market remained little changed. U.S. Treasury debt prices were steady at higher levels.

The Philadelphia Fed's employment index fell sharply to 4.8 in November, its lowest in four months, from 12.6 in October.

Prices paid eased slightly to 37.7 from 40.3 in October, while the new orders index edged up to 3.5 from 2.7.

The six-month business conditions outlook, however, tumbled to 11.6 from 41.5 in October, while the six-month capital expenditures outlook fell to 7.1 from 20.5 last month.

The Philly Fed said firms were also less optimistic about future employment.

"It suggests that we're perhaps developing the risk that business investment is going to be less supportive of the economy next year than what we originally thought," Sullivan of JVB Financial Group said.

(Reporting by Steven C. Johnson; Editing by James Dalgleish)

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/071115/usa_economy_phillyfed.html

 

[tsptalk]

Very ugly. The market is in a downtrend and is going to pound those who don't sell the rallies - until we all give up and sell. The sentiment surveys are all already very bearish so I'm surprised we haven't seen a capitultaion yet, but I still don't feel fear or panic in the air. Perhaps there is more damage to come?? Of course every time I say that, a large rally ensues.

 

[vic]

From your lips to the markets ear my friend. Looking for a rally tomorrow

 

[robo]

The Bullish / Bearish Conundrum
November 16, 2007

300+ Dow points down, 300+ Dow points up. Extreme volatility is now the norm. The Nasdaq Composite Index – COMPQ lost 9% in only four trading days, and it was just a fraction from new rally highs when the first day began.

The question is…should traders be bullish, or should traders be bearish? A good case can be made for either stance.

On the assumption that most traders, investors, market timers, etc., are not day traders, such volatility as is currently being experienced in the stock market cannot easily be turned into profits.

All you can do is position yourself with the current trend, and go along for the ride. What is the current trend? That is the question of the day. After extreme selling over a four day span, the stock market roared to life on Tuesday, scoring a 300+ point Dow gain, and a huge 89 point gain in the Nasdaq Composite.

Adding to the confusion was a breadth explosion in the NYSE Tuesday, which scored a 14 to 1 advancing vs. declining volume trading day. Such days are uncommon and are considered a bullish indicator, especially when it occurs twice in a three-month period. And how many such days have we had in the last three months? Count them, FOUR! By this indicator alone, the stock market will be 10% to 14% higher in the next year.

Even so, the charts are setting off alarms left and right. The S&P Composite Index – SPX is well below its 200-day moving average, a bearish indicator that is now a strong resistance level. In fact, the SPX bounced off it in Wednesday’s trading and has been heading lower since. The Nasdaq 100 Index – NDX is still above its 200-day average, but has lost 10%, most of it in only those four days of trading. Not encouraging.

A good case can be made for a cash position right now. Wait for the breakout and new trend confirmation that is certain to come, and trade from there. There is always another trend. Keep your capital intact and jump in when the next trend has begun. The stock market is not safe at this time.

Traders and market timers need to follow their trading strategies regardless of the news. It is never a good time to trade on news events. Volatility is what makes strategies work in the long run. But we must admit, this time we may be in for more selling in coming weeks.

http://timing.typepad.com/timer/

 

[Show-me]

Fed injects net $6 bln into banking system

By Alistair Barr, MarketWatch
Last Update: 5:26 PM ET Nov 15, 2007

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Reserve injected roughly $6 billion into the banking system on Thursday.

The Fed carried out three repurchase agreements totaling $47.25 billion, according to the Web site of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

The first was a 14-day, $8 billion repo on Thursday morning. The second was a six-day, $20 billion repo roughly an hour later. The third was a one-day, $19.25 billion repo. The Fed accepted more than $20 billion of mortgage-backed securities as collateral in the moves, the Web site said.

Other agreements were expiring, so the Fed ended up adding roughly $6 billion in extra liquidity into the system, said Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP.

Alistair Barr is a reporter for MarketWatch in San Francisco.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={624706E1-7C2A-4613-BFA2-C73E7B42E2FA}

 

[Show-me]

Model Gisele Bundchen refuses to be paid in dollars, demands payment in euros.

Supermodel Bundchen Joins Hedge Funds Dumping Dollars (Update3)

By Bo Nielsen and Adriana Brasileiro

Nov. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Gisele Bundchen wants to remain the world's richest model and is insisting that she be paid in almost any currency but the U.S. dollar.

Like billionaire investors Warren Buffett and Bill Gross, the Brazilian supermodel, who Forbes magazine says earns more than anyone in her industry, is at the top of a growing list of rich people who have concluded that the currency can only depreciate because Americans led by President George W. Bush are living beyond their means.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aCs.keWwNdiY&refer=home


Can I get my paycheck in Euros? LOL :nuts: No, seriously I want it in Euros. Pounds? Loons?

 

[Show-me]

AP
Penney, Kohl's Predict Tough Holidays
Thursday November 15, 6:43 pm ET
By Emily Fredrix, AP Business Writer J.C. Penney, Kohl's Predict Tough Holidays, Both Lower Forecasts

MILWAUKEE (AP) -- Retailers J.C. Penney Co. and Kohl's Corp., whose middle income customers are struggling amid a souring economy, offered a bleak outlook for the holiday quarter as they reported a drop in third-quarter profits.

Plano, Texas-based Penney reported third-quarter profit fell 9 percent, hurt by weak sales in September and October.

Kohl's, based in Menomonee Falls, Wis., said its profit dropped 14 percent, with a double-digit dip in sales of outerwear, sweaters and other cold-weather items during the unseasonably warm fall.

The showings don't bode well for the retail industry in the all-important holiday season, said David Heupel, portfolio manager for Thrivent Investment Management Inc. in Minneapolis. Rival Macy's Inc. said Wednesday it expects lower same-store sales for the year.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071115/earns_retailers.html

 

[nnuut]

I haven't seen a real Hundred Bill in years, very refreshing, Bubba!