This Month in Stocks: 11/3 - 11/30/07

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Cohen, Bianco See Year-End Rally; Dow Theory Says No (Update4)

By Nick Baker and Eric Martin

Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- What do Abby Joseph Cohen, Jason Trennert and David Bianco know that the Dow Theory doesn't?

The strategists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Strategas Research Partners LLC and UBS AG say the Standard & Poor's 500 Index will climb 9.7 percent from its Nov. 16 close to 1,600 in the final six weeks of 2007, the steepest gain since 1971.

This month's drop in transportation stocks suggests equities may decline instead. With FedEx Corp. and Ryder Systems Inc. leading the Dow Jones Transportation Average to its lowest level this year, the rest of the U.S. market may slump too, according to the 123-year-old theory that says truckers, railroads and airlines lose business before the economy slows.

``The transports have broken down,'' said Jack Ablin, who oversees about $52 billion as chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago. ``We're going to need a boost on the economic front to really help push the market higher. I wouldn't bet on it.''

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U.S. Sales Rose 8.3% Day After Thanksgiving, ShopperTrak Says

By Mary Jane Credeur and Kelly Riddell

Nov. 24 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. consumers spent $10.3 billion on holiday purchases yesterday, an 8.3 percent increase from last year, after retailers promoted electronics and toys to woo shoppers.

Consumers remained resilient and proved they were willing to spend even with oil prices rising and other economic pressures, ShopperTrak RCT Corp. said today in a statement. The day after Thanksgiving, dubbed Black Friday, typically accounts for between 4.5 percent and 5 percent of all holiday sales, the company said.

Holiday sales will increase 3.6 percent this year, the Chicago-based research firm estimates, trailing a 4.8 percent gain last year. Retailers have responded to the anticipated drop by offering discounts on flat-panel TVs and diamond necklaces to lure shoppers.

``It's an extraordinary number, beyond what we anticipated,'' Bill Martin, co-founder of ShopperTrak, said in an interview.

``I think there was pent-up demand given the slow sales in October and November because of unseasonably warm weather, and people want to find value for their dollar and reacted to the specials.''

ShopperTrak estimates customer visits to stores will drop 2.5 percent this holiday season, which covers the 32 days between Thanksgiving Day and Christmas.

Seeking Bargains

Sales in November and December may rise 4 percent, the slowest gain since 2002, according to the National Retail Federation in Washington. About 55 percent of shoppers said they will spend less this year than in 2006, according to a Discover Financial Services survey.

Consumers flocked to Toys ``R'' Us Inc., Wal-Mart Stores Inc., Macy's Inc. and other retailers in the pre-dawn hours yesterday to find bargains on Nintendo Wii game consoles and sterling-silver jewelry.

The day after the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday is called Black Friday because at one time it was considered the day retailers turned profitable for the year.

Kenyata Luckey, a 22-year-old waitress, is spending about $300 this year, half the amount she spent last year, because ``there aren't as many good deals'' at Target Corp. and Wal- Mart.

She bought remote-control cars, a Big Wheel bike and stocking stuffers for her son, niece and nephew at an Atlanta Target store at 7:30 a.m. yesterday. A talking-doll set she wanted cost $50, and wasn't on sale, so she didn't buy it.

``There are sales, but not on the stuff I wanted,'' Luckey said.

Howard Davidowitz, chairman of Davidowitz & Associates Inc., a New York-based retail consulting firm, says the best deals are ``yet to come.''

``You've got to move product,'' Davidowitz said yesterday. ``And retailers are on a terrible sales trend, so there is no choice but to sell the inventory at what you can sell it at.''

ShopperTrak measures foot traffic in shopping centers and malls using more than 45,000 video devices.

To contact the reporter on this story: Mary Jane Credeur in Atlanta at mcredeur@bloomberg.net .
Last Updated: November 24, 2007 17:38 EST
 
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European Central Bank set for cash injection: FT

By MarketWatch
Last Update: 9:29 AM ET Nov 25, 2007

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The European Central Bank is poised to pump additional funds into the money markets this coming week to maintain liquidity, the Financial Times reported.

Fresh emergency action to pump funds into the money markets was announced late Friday by the ECB amid renewed fears that liquidity in the credit markets is again starting to dry up, the newspaper reported.

The ECB, the central bank for the 13 countries from Germany to Slovenia that use the euro as their currency, said it would inject an unspecified amount of extra liquidity this coming week, noting "re-emerging tensions."

The ECB also said it would continue to inject liquidity at least until the end of the year.

The promise of intervention came as three-month U.S. interbank rates rose for the eighth day in a row to 5.04%, more than half a point higher than the U.S. Fed Funds target rate of 4.5%, according to the FT.

Three-month money usually trades just above the Fed Funds rate, which is 4.5%. European and British money markets are showing similar strains.
 
The Week Ahead

Last Update: 23-Nov-07 12:55 ET

The week ahead brings a wide slate of tradable events as the calendar shows a number of earnings reports, economic releases, investment conferences, and Fed speeches.

The Consumer Confidence report for November kicks off the economic calendar on Tuesday and is followed during the week by some other notable releases that include existing and new home sales for October, durable orders, the Fed's Beige Book, the revision to third quarter GDP, and personal income and spending and core-PCE inflation data for October.

The week's economic events can be previewed on our Economic Calendar.

A handful of major companies are scheduled to report quarterly earnings next week. Briefing.com's earnings calendar offers a complete rundown of companies due to release results. Among them, American Eagle (AEO), Jackson Hewitt (JTX), Staples (SPLS), Dell (DELL), Inergy (NRGY), Del Monte (DLM), HJ Heinz (HNZ), and Sears Holding (SHLD) are set to announce.
________________________________________________________________
Monday, November 26:
  • Earnings: SkillSoft (SKIL), Donaldson (DCI)
  • Economic Data: None
  • Events: Parkway Properties Guidance Call, Information Mezzanine Network Real Estate Loan Forum
  • Conferences: Woldwide Business Research Defense Logistics Conference, CombinatoRx Investor Conference
  • Fed Speakers: None
Tuesday, November 27:
  • Earnings: American Eagle (AEO), Jackson Hewitt (JTX), Staples (SPLS), Talbots (TLB), Tech Data (TECD), Marvell (MRVL), Pep Boys (PBY)
  • Economic Data: November Consumer Confidence report
  • Events: Wall Street Analyst Forum, KVH Industries Trade Shows
  • Conferences: Piper Jaffray Healthcare Conference, CIBC World Markets Mid & Small Cap "Best Ideas" Conference, Friedman Billings Ramsey Capital Markets Investor Conference, Lazard Capital Markets Annual Healthcare Conference, Merrill Lynch Health Services Investor Conference, Credit Suisse Annual Technology Conference, JPMorgan Homebuilding and Building Products Conference
  • Fed Speakers: Philadelphia Fed President Plosser speaks in New York on the economic outlook, Chicago Fed President Evans speaks in Chicago to Futures Industry Association about the economic outlook
Wednesday, November 28:
  • Earnings: Aeropostale(ARO), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Coldwater Creek (CWTR), Men's Wearhouse (MW)
  • Economic Data: Weekly Crude Inventories (week ending Nov. 23), October Durable Goods Orders, October Existing Home Sales, Fed's Beige Book release
  • Events: Rohm & Haas Analyst Day, Wall Street Analyst Forum, KVH Industries Trade Shows, Mobile WiMAX Global Congress
  • Conferences: Friedman Billings Ramsey Capital Markets Investor Conference, JP Morgan Building Conference and 2008 Outlook Conference, Piper Jaffray Healthcare Conference, CIBC World Markets Mid & Small Cap "Best Ideas" Conference, Lazard Healthcare Conference, Merrill Lynch Health Services Investor Conference, Bear Stearns Commodities and Capital Goods Conference, Credit Suisse Annual Technology Conference
  • Fed Speakers: Fed Vice Chairman Kohn in New York to speak to Council on Foreign Relations, Dallas Fed President Fisher speaks in Texas about the Fed and economy
Thursday, November 29:
  • Earnings:Del Monte (DLM), HJ Heinz (HNZ), Sally Beauty (SBH), Sears Holding (SHLD), Smithfield Foods (SFD), Dell (DELL), J. Crew (JCG)
  • Economic Data: Preliminary Third Quarter GDP report and Chain Deflator, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (Week Ending Nov. 24), October New Home Sales
  • Events: Safeco Insurance Analyst Day, Anheuser-Busch Regional Investor Presentation, GenProbe Analyst Meeting, Wall Street Analysts Forum, KVH Industries Trade Shows, Mobile WiMAX Global Congress
  • Conferences: Bear Stearns Commodities & Capital Goods Conference, Fuel Cell Alternative Energy Conference, UBS Global Real Estate Conference, Credit Suisse Annual Technology Conference
  • Fed Speakers: Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks at Charlotte Chamber of Commerce Conference
Friday, November 30:
  • Earnings: Big Lots (BIG)
  • Economic Data: October Personal Income and Personal Spending data, October Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Inflation, Chicago November Purchasing Managers Index, October Construction Spending data
  • Events: Novo Nordisk Analyst and Investor Meeting, KVH Industries Trade Shows
  • Conferences: Roth Capital Partners China Phoenix Conference, UBS Global Real Estate Conference
  • Fed Speakers: Philadelphia Fed President Plosser makes opening remarks at Philadelphia Conference, St. Louis Fed President Poole speaks about economy at Cato Institute in Washington, Fed Governor Kroszner speaks in Philadelphia about financial markets
--Jeffrey Ham, Briefing.com
 
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