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Seen another system starting 1000 mi. east south east of where Chris started (about 1500 mi. off Bahamas..). Can't say if it will form up, too early.....Maybe Dave will fill us in....
 
Why Didn't I think Of This?

I have been keeping my eyes on my islands the last few days as we have had active weather down here. Yesterday I extended my horizon forward one week, and as we are in for "Atlantic weather" that is where I looked. From my afternoon discussion...

.FORECASTS...
IN ANOTHER 24 HOURS WE SHOULD SEE THE ATLANTIC HIGH NOSING IN FROM
THE EAST...THROUGH THE DOOR OPENED BY THE DEPARTURE OF THE BAHAMAS LOW. THE GOES-SOUNDER ESTIMATED MOISTURE VALUES ABOUT A THIRD LESS THAN AT PRESENT OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC...EASILY DISCERNED ON THE VISIBLE IMAGERY AS A CLEAR ZONE NORTH OF THE ANTILLES. THE STRENGTH OF THE EASTERLIES THAT WILL NATURALLY RESULT...WILL DEPEND PARTLY ON THE LOCATION OF THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE. AT THIS POINT WE CONSULTED GUIDANCE...WHICH ALIGNED THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR NORTH. THEREFORE WE LOOK FOR SCATTERED CLOUDS...COMFORTABLE EAST BREEZES...AND MODEST RAIN CHANCES...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

...so it looks quiet for now. The recent behaviour of the Huricane Center has lead us to become jaded. They seem to have gotten orders to play up in their discussions every little cloud cluster or swirl.

Dave
 
I heard that NOAA was laying off weather forecasters for lack of work....:blink: Suppose when the 'canes are down, so is the oil monies that pay for the weather business....:nuts:
 
Re: Why Didn't I think Of This?

Dave M said:
I have been keeping my eyes on my islands the last few days as we have had active weather down here. Yesterday I extended my horizon forward one week, and as we are in for "Atlantic weather" that is where I looked. From my afternoon discussion...

.FORECASTS...
IN ANOTHER 24 HOURS WE SHOULD SEE THE ATLANTIC HIGH NOSING IN FROM
THE EAST...THROUGH THE DOOR OPENED BY THE DEPARTURE OF THE BAHAMAS LOW. THE GOES-SOUNDER ESTIMATED MOISTURE VALUES ABOUT A THIRD LESS THAN AT PRESENT OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC...EASILY DISCERNED ON THE VISIBLE IMAGERY AS A CLEAR ZONE NORTH OF THE ANTILLES. THE STRENGTH OF THE EASTERLIES THAT WILL NATURALLY RESULT...WILL DEPEND PARTLY ON THE LOCATION OF THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE. AT THIS POINT WE CONSULTED GUIDANCE...WHICH ALIGNED THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR NORTH. THEREFORE WE LOOK FOR SCATTERED CLOUDS...COMFORTABLE EAST BREEZES...AND MODEST RAIN CHANCES...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

...so it looks quiet for now. The recent behaviour of the Huricane Center has lead us to become jaded. They seem to have gotten orders to play up in their discussions every little cloud cluster or swirl.

Dave
Click to expand...
Now yer talkin'!!! Much better than my guesses! GO DAVE!:D
 
Gulf weather

If you look now you have an opportunity to see one start in the gulf.....it doesn't necessarily mean it will go on and fully develop, but the motions are initiating at the moment.....

What can I say....I looking for one sooner or later....conditions are ripe.....especially in the Gulf.....just looking anyday for one.....

Gee its hot and muggy around here....
 
Stella Artois

Since I am off duty for a couple of days, I have been swilling Stella and enjoying the town. Not only do I have the best job in Key West, I have the best job in in the weather service. *hic!*

I do recall that on Tuesday when we charted the water temps, there was a warm pocket in the northeast Gulf at 31C, along the panhandle. That is plenty warm. I wonder how deep it goes.

Dave
 
If we don't get a couple good spinners in the gulf here pretty soon...
big oil is going to run out of excuses to score another 200% profit this year. :nuts:
 
We are going on a 7 day vacation to the Cancun area in the beginning of Sept. Had this thing planned for last November and look what happened... At least wait for me to get home for all the storms to start.
 
From what I see Debbie is no problem for the USA? I'm no Weather Man, but !!!! What's the big deal?:confused:
Natural Gas up due to Debbie?:confused:
 
i just saw the news and the track has it heading up the gulf .. Way early to tell and there is also a 50% chance of rain in FL today
 
Hmmmm, the gulf seems turbulent and the systems seem to destroy themselves before they really get organized....but this one is looking to start to pack together pretty well before it gets there....what bothers me the most is all the mass of moisture that is present in the atmosphere in the Gulf region....makes for a very powerful gyro....
 
28/1200 Utc

The track brings a 65-knot center within 5 degrees of me sometime on the 28th, headed northwest That is ~300 NM. As before I expect d(prog)/dt to shift left as the Gulf has been hostile territory for weeks due to shear.

I'm scheduled off until Tuesday and plan on paying attention to nothing. Now overtime looms, hmph.

***********

Here is the line from our dailies for Aug 26th 2005:
84 75 80 -4 // 9.66 36.6 61 180 9 123 74 170

It goes hi-lo-avg-departure; over nine inches of rain; avg wind, a 61 mph 1-minute average wind, 74 mph 5-sec gust; weather-code 9 is a tornado/waterspout and it was ferocious.

I walked to work in my bathing suit that day as the roads were flooded, to the airport if you've ever been down here, the most exposed point on the island. Katrina.

Dave
 
Took a look at the system this morning and it seems its heading NW to the east side of Florida as of today.....but its path of least resistance should change as you said Dave, so I wouldn't expect it to stay that course.
 
the news in West Palm Beach just reported @1033 that it will be a cat 3 on Thursday and up the gulf it goes.
 
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