The tests are coming


10/18/12

The Dow struggled most of the day yesterday but managed a 5-point gain by the end of the day. The broader market did better however, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Transports, and small caps seeing larger gains. The I-fund led the way with a 1.26% gain.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 241"]
101812.gif
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 151"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.0036%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.23%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.42%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.70%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 1.26%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Although the S&P 500 saw intraday moves above 1460 over the last couple of months, it has had a difficult time closing above that area. Here it is at 1461 with possible strong resistance near 1468. A test for this new push higher.

101812a.gif

Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

Apple's stock has pulled back over the last few weeks, and it has taken the Nasdaq Composite and the Nasdaq 100 Index with it, both which have been lagging the Dow and S&P badly. Both Nasdaq indices are now testing the top of their descending trading channels. If this rally is going to continue for stocks, the Nasdaq must participate.

101812b.gif

Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The financials have been performing well with the XLF closing at a new 2012 high. This cup and handle formation is usually pretty bullish, and we could be seeing a breakout.

101812d.gif

Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk


Not always a leader or a lagger, but a strong financial sector certainly does not hurt things.

The dollar is helping stocks as it appears to be rolling over from its bear flag, right at the descending trendline, keeping the downtrend intact. Good for stocks for now. Potential problems down the road.

101812c.gif

Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk


The stock charts looks pretty good right now but many of the charts are now testing overhead resistance and they must pass that test before we get too excited.

Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
 
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