The housing wrench

[The_Technician]

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:l

U guys are funny.....:lLOMAO!!!!

Couldn't help but notice how the market has alot of up impulses but the price isn't moving.....theygotta beselling off......losers were greater than winners this morning earlier....

I would suspect if my prediction comes true, the market will be down 20% inside of two weeks .....I'm still :l

:l:l:l:l

 

[pyriel]

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Tech, I believe that there will be a pullback. The problem people are having in this board is that you, Greg, MT, DMA had been saying that all along. Market will always go up and down. The problem we have here is when. Merely saying doomsday is coming day after day while the market goes up does not give them alot of credibility. Right now, Birch is right about his bullishness.I am sure that your time will come about your bearishness being right. We all just go back and forth on this.

However, despite all of this, you are one of the fewbears that actually put a timeframe on when the pullback might take place. I applaud you for informing us that. I have a feeling that people are just riding this bull andwill continue to track it till next week. As soon as a pullback takes place, they will start jumping out of stox to preserve their profit. As you know, some of them have gained alot within the last two months so they can afford a day or two downturn along the way before they decide to hide in g fund. :^

 

[grandma]

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DMA wrote:

I was in Bangkok Thailand over the weekend.

One good earthquake in CA and you will have them moving like ants again to Oregon and Wash State.

I would say that any Californian who moves to Oregon or Washington or Alaska, isn't too concerned about not being exposed to earthquakes. He should also stay away from Missouri & Arkansas. I have felt Washington & Missouri tremors - barely able to hang on to keeptomy feet when in the Missouri bootheel.

You have brought to mind a question , tho. How did your privately owned island holdup during the Tsunami and the sea-bottom earthquakes they've had since? Will owning an island be an asset during the coming crash?

 

[The_Technician]

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Py, pardon my inexperience with indexs.....I believe given the economics, I have been very cautious over the last quarter.......but, taken the current circumstances, I continue to dig out info that may be informative to me and you....I don't stand idly by and listen to others blantantly....

All I here is its a bullish moment in the market while the market is extremely high on Stdevs, Accumulation is falling off, economics are bizarre, market acting bizarre to the less than ideal economics........there are little or no facts to state why you should be bulllish....heck the market is really taken off this past week isn't it...looks strong don't it.....right........there may be something not being mentioned here that others know or should know, personally, I'd like to hear logical facts that justifywhywe should still be bullish while the risks are extremely high.......

The little climb we have had lately is typical of an topped out market, I couldn't tell you how much and how long it would last, that's why I have stayed mainly in G and pursued formore info...because I know there is something I haven't learn or seen yet......I thought that u may want to know....maybe you don't.

I personally don't give away my savings so freely.....but ....maybe U do.....

:dude:

 

[Spaf]

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The Technician wrote:

......there may be something not being mentioned here that others know or should know, personally, I'd like to hear logical facts that justifywhywe should still be bullish while the risks are extremely high.......

The little climb we have had lately is typical of an topped out market,

Tech,

The economy is strong and moving ahead. The reports and earnings have been good. Basically we have good fundamentals supporting the market. Energy costs, oil, gas, etc are the only hold backs that are putting a drag on the market. Even so the market has been somewhat resilient with the rising cost of oil.

I would be uncomfortable with a series of rallys, I had rather see the slow climb with small corrections. Money flow is positive and holding at a comfortable value 0.141. Market strength is good and around the range of 64. Above 70 would be overbought. The moving averages have indicated a bullish position at 9.41. The slow stoch did come down from the territory of being overbought. That was the reason I didn't jump right back into the market. Lastly the rate of change indicators have given a positive upward indication at 1.32.

Generally we are not seeing drastic moves right now, but we do have, and have had upward momentum, and a correction here and there.

I do recommend that trailing stops be used as a safeguard. I like having an alert at 1% and a trail stop at 2%

Right now the prinary movement is bullish. The best thing is that it's based on the economy. Not like the Santa Clause rally we had last year. When will it end, who knows!

Rgds, and be carefulmy friend! Spaf

 

[The_Technician]

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Well don't forget the lack of payroll increases that keep future markets going, interest costs, in general coporate operating costs, then there is overseas competition, not counting current liablities with business and individuals....

Don't get me wrong, I love the market going up, wish I could have more of a handle on it.....sooner or later I will, then moving in and out of the markets will be the game, not just get in and sit until maybe a change in my mood....maximum return....that is what I'm aiming for....

what I learned the other day told me I should have been in the market for the recent past.....it was a biggy lesson.....but now it tells me I should be exiting....so should you.....

Have you learned anything lately that makes you a better market timer.....???:^

:dude:

 

[Spaf]

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The Technician wrote:

Have you learned anything lately that makes you a better market timer.....???:^

:dude:

Na can't time it, but can take a position with safeguards:

Best indicators I like are the CMF, RSI, MACD, Slow STO, and the ROC.
Best safeguards: Monitor Nymex, transports, basic economic fundamentals and establish trailing stops.

Play TSP conservatively, mainly because of the 1-2 day transfer lag, and limited funds.
Play ST more aggressively, because of instant trade, and a pot full of ETF funds.

Zat good enuf! Spaf

 

[Guest]

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From Mish Blog site:

Also note that close to 70% of the people own their own home even though there are tens of thousands of unoccupied condominiums with 10 years worth of supply coming on in Florida in the next two years alone.

:shock:10 years of supply in two years.

Supply/demand = less demand = buyers market = not sells market.

:^ Hoping from one bubble to the next. Home equity gain = paper gain of tech funds.

If you do not take the gain you do not get it.

But believe what you want to believe.

Bubbles are only in our bathtubs. BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

 

[Birchtree]

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Snort, Snort, I obviously missed a good day of talk on TSPtalk today.

Technobucks - remember not to stand too close - you could end up with wet shoes again. Perhaps you can suggest to DMA that he chase the I find along with Nnuut.

Pyriel, I will not run from a headfake - no reason to abandon my positions for a few weeks - just ride through and continue to dollar cost average. I wouldn't really preserve that much profit - just as soon let it free float. I'm not looking for any serious bear phase only a continuation of the consolidation. It will be interesting to see how many participants hold their lines - I'd have to see more than 1000 Dow points slip away before I would even consider the old cut and run. I don't think you will see sp500 drop below 1200 for the rest of this year. Take a look at the corrections the occured in 2003 - there were some but none with any depth. Now look at the 1995 graph of the S&P - that is what may be on the horizon.

 

[Guest]

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Refer to 1972 chart. :^

Rising interest rates and crude.

2003 was the artifically stimulus of retroactive div tax cuts and emergency rates.



Run up late 2004 was the sure thing private accounts.

The tricks are getting stale.

Down she goes. :^

 

[Birchtree]

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I assume you no longer care for the intensity of the I fund. She has been running hard lately - if the dollar is reversing course - it seems like a for sure play. Take a spin and provide us with a report.

By the way, I agree with most of your comments on the real estate and housing sector. When trouble strikes perhaps a lot of that money will flow into equities.

 

[Guest]

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Think a lot of that money will flow into rental properties.

I am buying apartment REITs and public foreclosure companies.

Turn off to me for the I fund is the tricky way they figure out the NAV at the end of the day.

Index can be up .842 for the day and you are down .02.

Index down .334 and you can be up .08.

Investing is hard enough without playing those games too.

IMHO.

Good day Birch. Off to watch a movie and dinner.

Be safe and all that jazz.

 

[JOVARN]

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I see small ups and downs with modest gains some weeks more or less then others. I see my co-workers bowering from their TSP. 26% of all mortgages are adjustable rate or interest only. Wage increases are all but stagnant. Not all but most have borrowed against their home to go on shopping sprees. People are strapped, living on borrowed money secured by their home and credit cards. When mortgage rates go up the market will go down that’s for certain. The only thing driving this economy is people borrowing against their home for cars, home improvements, boats and of course real-estate. Then there is the price of oil to think about.

I see no reason to be Bullish especially in August. Mortgage rates will be the guillotine that cuts the bulls head off. Those that know when the ax will fall will be safe from the blood bath.

My guess is as good as anyone elses.

Have a nice weekend

Jo

 

[Birchtree]

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Jovarn,

At least you speak your mind. You have to remember though that the market is a discounting mechanism for the future and is omnipotent. Just because you don't see a valuable reason to be bullish - doesn't mean the market is blind. That is what makes a market - but I'd rather keep my head. But I will see you at higher prices - good to have you on board TSPtalk. When the train leaves the station just run a little faster to catch up - but there is plenty of time - I think.

Dennis - renegade contrarian bull.

 

[Guest]

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Shhhhhhhhhh got a secret.

The ARMs are getting ready to readjust.

Readjust up - wonder where those ARM people are going to come up with a extra couple $100s to make their new higher mortgage interest payment.

Good thing Congress rushed those new bankrupcy rules through. LOL