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Tally for June 06
- Thread starter rokid
- Start date
mlk_man
Banned
sugarandspice said:
I didn't think someone with two personalities would figure it out, but that's a pretty small demographic on this site anymore. If you look, a lot of people didn't post all year so they weren't included on the YTD total. I'd go by their 6-month total if that's the case. ST's 6-month to YTD return wasn't much different anyway, so just take the 6-moth return for everyone.
Does that "give" or do you need more time?
mlk_man
Banned
You're being here less than a month explains my point. No worries, like I told ST, I'm for hire if he wants me to track him. Of couse he had to ask Fundsurfer to do it after that.
I'll just post in my account and when I send the weekly tracker from here on. Got other things to take of anywho.
Good luck and happy returns!
I'll just post in my account and when I send the weekly tracker from here on. Got other things to take of anywho.
Good luck and happy returns!
FundSurfer
Well-known member
I've several times thought about signing up for several different sites TSP advice in order to track how they actually do. The problem with doing that is the money it takes to subscribe to all those sites. We've had several discussions about tsp advice sites before and how they are misleading with showing how well their system has done in backtesting. I think it would be a great service to have a rating. I'd be willing to track any and every tsp advice site just to have a third party who has verified what they have done. My problem with the pay sites has always been that you have no idea if you are really getting what you pay for. I personally don't care where you graduated or what fund you may have managed in the past, I care about track record. I sure as heck don't care to read about how well any system has done back testing.
Systemtrader showed up a couple months after I started doing the tracker and back then announced that he planned to eventually start his own site and asked me way back then if I'd be willing to track his moves once he no longer posted here. I said yes then thinking that he'd find out how hard it actually was and his plan to start his own site would fade. I just went back and checked and he leads everyone in percentage gained since he started posting by over a percent. Part of that is his move to G in May which has pushed him past Dakota and Show-me but that's where he is at.
I'm not a systemtrader apologist but I have to admit he has gained a certain amount of respect from me for doing as well as he has done. I'm also interested in seeing if he can keep it going. If anyone wants to start there own site, I say more power to them. If they can get people to pay for their advice, great for them.
As to competition with TSPTALK, that's Tom's call. Systemtrader is competition with RevShark but there is always going to be competition. There are 80+ others who post their moves for free that are also being tracked that to a certain extent are competition. I notice that you have paid for RevShark's advice despite being able to see the daily moves of a bunch of other people many of whom for the moment are ahead of Rev. That isn't a put down of the Rev, I think he'll do fine long run, but it does point out a fact about how people decide to subscribe to a service and it isn't all about a Tally.
Systemtrader showed up a couple months after I started doing the tracker and back then announced that he planned to eventually start his own site and asked me way back then if I'd be willing to track his moves once he no longer posted here. I said yes then thinking that he'd find out how hard it actually was and his plan to start his own site would fade. I just went back and checked and he leads everyone in percentage gained since he started posting by over a percent. Part of that is his move to G in May which has pushed him past Dakota and Show-me but that's where he is at.
I'm not a systemtrader apologist but I have to admit he has gained a certain amount of respect from me for doing as well as he has done. I'm also interested in seeing if he can keep it going. If anyone wants to start there own site, I say more power to them. If they can get people to pay for their advice, great for them.
As to competition with TSPTALK, that's Tom's call. Systemtrader is competition with RevShark but there is always going to be competition. There are 80+ others who post their moves for free that are also being tracked that to a certain extent are competition. I notice that you have paid for RevShark's advice despite being able to see the daily moves of a bunch of other people many of whom for the moment are ahead of Rev. That isn't a put down of the Rev, I think he'll do fine long run, but it does point out a fact about how people decide to subscribe to a service and it isn't all about a Tally.
It is something ST and I have discussed via PM and I have given it some thought but have not come to a decision yet. He has been more than gracious handling the situation and because of that his is one of only a few TSP competitors sites that I have not blocked from advertising on my Google ads - which will likely brings in some revenue for me.
If I didn't have the Rev's newsletter it would be a no brainer, but this is in direct competition with that service. One thing I do take into consideration is that I spend about $3000 a month to advertise TSP Talk in the search engines. (so it wouldn't hurt my feelings if you visit an advertiser if an ad interests you.) This site has one of the highest concentration of TSP participants on the web. It is a gold mine for TSP services looking to advertise. Giving it away free wouldn't be very smart. The traffic here warrants charging over $500 month for someone to put a banner ad on the home page (about $240 for the message board). I'd like to come up with a good compromise because ST is a good guy and we both want to benefit somehow. That's where we stand.
I'm don't quite understand why mlk_man is so concerned, but I sure appreciate how loyal he has been to this site over the years.
Tom
If I didn't have the Rev's newsletter it would be a no brainer, but this is in direct competition with that service. One thing I do take into consideration is that I spend about $3000 a month to advertise TSP Talk in the search engines. (so it wouldn't hurt my feelings if you visit an advertiser if an ad interests you.) This site has one of the highest concentration of TSP participants on the web. It is a gold mine for TSP services looking to advertise. Giving it away free wouldn't be very smart. The traffic here warrants charging over $500 month for someone to put a banner ad on the home page (about $240 for the message board). I'd like to come up with a good compromise because ST is a good guy and we both want to benefit somehow. That's where we stand.
I'm don't quite understand why mlk_man is so concerned, but I sure appreciate how loyal he has been to this site over the years.
Tom
Yep. As mlk-man points out, I am a newbie, looking to learn. Ever grateful that people here are willing to share what they know and answer stupid questions. And to the folks, such as yourself, apparently, and mlk_man, who do the grunt work.
Whether RevShark or ST do well or poorly isn't the issue. It just isn't cricket to blab their moves, even if they suck. There's a lot more to running an internet business than blurbs on a message board.
TSPTalk'ers (or ST or RS) haven't publically traded TSP funds long enough (2004, max?) to evaluate. Who's leading the pack YTD or FY2005 is interesting, but at the timescale of federal careers and TSP participation, it's peanuts.
RevShark, on the other hand, is demonstrably the real deal, tho perhaps others merely posting here have equally distinguished, long-term records. Learn from those who do.
As far as business models go, I think the conflict is more apparent than real. TSPTalk is a newspaper, a one-stop TSP shop. Dick, and Harry believe in their product and want to sell advice. Tracking their results along with everyone else's in the town square is both advertising and validation. If RevShark has an exclusive w TSPTalk, presumably that factors into the RevShark newsletter price, but in the long run that exclusivity undermines TSPTalk' credibility.
Whether RevShark or ST do well or poorly isn't the issue. It just isn't cricket to blab their moves, even if they suck. There's a lot more to running an internet business than blurbs on a message board.
TSPTalk'ers (or ST or RS) haven't publically traded TSP funds long enough (2004, max?) to evaluate. Who's leading the pack YTD or FY2005 is interesting, but at the timescale of federal careers and TSP participation, it's peanuts.
RevShark, on the other hand, is demonstrably the real deal, tho perhaps others merely posting here have equally distinguished, long-term records. Learn from those who do.
As far as business models go, I think the conflict is more apparent than real. TSPTalk is a newspaper, a one-stop TSP shop. Dick, and Harry believe in their product and want to sell advice. Tracking their results along with everyone else's in the town square is both advertising and validation. If RevShark has an exclusive w TSPTalk, presumably that factors into the RevShark newsletter price, but in the long run that exclusivity undermines TSPTalk' credibility.
sugarandspice
Well-known member
The system.
People gain credibility when they say they have something that works, they use it, and it produces results.
Talk is cheap. Walking the walk is conviction.
People gain credibility when they say they have something that works, they use it, and it produces results.
Talk is cheap. Walking the walk is conviction.
JAC said:
Exactly. We do ask the TSP Timing Newsletter subscribers to not participate in the Tally if they are just following along with the service.
The point of the tally is for members to make transfers and explain why they are doing what they are doing so in the end we are helping others. And that is what TSP Talk is all about. Some people aren't interested in taking the time to learn and depend on the services to do the work for them - which is fine. But they should not want to take credit for it on the tally.
In the end RevShark pays me good money to present, process, and promote the newsletter. If SystemTrader wanted to do the same it would make it a more fair playing field. But as I mentioned, ST was gracious enough to realize he could be taking away business from RevShark. And that's where we stand now. I'd love to work something out. Please PM me if you have any ideas.
Thanks,
Tom
sugarandspice
Well-known member
nnuut said:
If your "system" works why not use it instead of chasing various funds trying to make up losses. You wouldn't have losses if your "system" was any good.
No system here and I didn't back test anything for three years and I didn't get 20% per year every year I backtested even in the bear years and I didn't...blah....blah....blah.
FundSurfer
Well-known member
sugarandspice said:
No "system" is perfect and any "system" will have losses. I prefer to use a "system" because it helps me limit my emotions. It is actually when I let my emotions make my decisions that I make wrong moves. I would think that someone with so many emotions could really appreciate that....:cheesy:
Is there such a thing as a schizophrenetic system? I'm sure S&S would be tops. BTW, S&S, congrats on the good moves.
sugarandspice
Well-known member
The only time I can make financial decisions is when I am emotionless! And to get to that state requires heavy doses of medication to reach the state just before catatonia. Just before slipping in I can make decisions. Once there I am useless for hours. Then there is a window when I am coming out of it that I can make decisions before "they" come back. Looks like I bailed a little early but I like to keep gains more than I like to "ride it out." Just gettin lucky.
Last edited:
sugarandspice
Well-known member
Sugar,
"Just gettin lucky"........ Another thing that never happened to you in your youth.......or ever for that matter.
"Just gettin lucky"........ Another thing that never happened to you in your youth.......or ever for that matter.
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