Tally - December 2005

[rokid]

2005 Tally Analysis

The attached compares the 2005 Tally results in terms of return, standard deviation, and Sharpe Ratio (a measure of risk adjusted return - higher is better). The return statistics were taken from Milkman's Tally tracker.

The burgundy areas indicate performance superior to the average market timer. By any measure, Dakota, Show-me, Rolo, and Neirbod took extra risk and it paid off, i.e. high return and high Sharpe Ratio. Others, took on higher risk but didn't get paid, i.e. higher standard deviation and relatively low Sharpe Ratio.

I created the passive Global Equities portfolio to see how a stock only, global capitalization based portfolio would have done in 2005. Actually, fairly well. It would have returned 9.95%. The portfolio is 50% domestic and 50% foreign. Specifically, 39% C Fund, 11% S Fund, and 50% I Fund.

 

[mlk_man]

If you save the text file, open it in Excel, use the "space delimiter", everything lines up quite nicely.

Sonny

You are correct sir!

 

[$onny]

If you save the text file, open it in Excel, use the "space delimiter", everything lines up quite nicely.

Sonny

 

[mlk_man]

Dec. Tally Attachment

If anyone is having trouble reading the Dec. tally, here is an attachment with highest returns for different periods pointed out.

 

[mlk_man]

I want some of those stars, MM!

What stars?

 

[mlk_man]

No!!! I cant read between the lines cause all you did is make one line!! That is not fair MM, your cheating. I am about ready to bet the farm that this rally is going to continue. What u think MM? If this thing holds through Monday I am thinking maybe on spreading a little butter if you know what I mean. I skimmed the cream now it is back to churning are ya following MM! You can't get milk without milking the cows right MM! Of course there is always a few flys in the milk but those city slickers never see that anyway!! LOL!!!

We call those flies "extra protein" back home............

If tomorrow is up, I'll most likely jump back in on Monday with ya. I may regret not jumping into the I fund today, but gonna stick with my system this year. Besides, couldn't log onto tsp.gov until 12:05 pm anyway. What's up with that?

 

[cowboy]

Can't please everyone. Some know how to "read between the lines", if you know what I mean.

No!!! I cant read between the lines cause all you did is make one line!! That is not fair MM, your cheating. I am about ready to bet the farm that this rally is going to continue. What u think MM? If this thing holds through Monday I am thinking maybe on spreading a little butter if you know what I mean. I skimmed the cream now it is back to churning are ya following MM! You can't get milk without milking the cows right MM! Of course there is always a few flys in the milk but those city slickers never see that anyway!! LOL!!!

 

[smine]

I want some of those stars, MM!

 

[mlk_man]

Can't please everyone. Some know how to "read between the lines", if you know what I mean.

 

[cowboy]

LOL!!!! You got me MM!! I figure if I kept you occupied on the board you will miss the dip in the I fund for a move!! I figured if you have the almighty power to delete posts that first post on this thread would be very good use of your power. See ya in the funnies!

 

[mlk_man]

Exactly why no one posts to you MM you always think it is negative.

You might wanna look again there sport. Would you like my password so you can check my PM's also?

You're just being a pain and can't help it. I understand completely........

Okay, back to work tracking all those busy little bees................

 

[cowboy]

Mm!!

If you got the tracker you would know all this...............

Also, if you go to fundsurfer's second post in this thread, you can download the attachment and it looks much better.

Haven't heard anyone else complaining. Hmmmmmmm

Exactly why no one posts to you MM you always think it is negative. Thanks for noting that the Tally was straightened out in Fundsurfers 2nd post! It looks much better and I appreciate everyone's work on the tally. Now I have kissed your ass! Now why don't you help the board and just take that peace of crap of a tally that was on top and delete it and put fundsurfers 2nd post on top that way any new member can view something worth looking at! Be a good moderator now or ill have grandma beat you over the head with a frying pan!! LOL!!

 

[Mike]

My idea for cumulative return was more of a long-term thing. If this goes on for years and years, it'd be interesting to see how the old stalwarts have done in that timeframe. Mutual funds have 1 yr / 5 yr / 10 yr performance, etc. - I think it'd be cool to see that for us participants. It wouldn't have much utility in the early going though...

I'm just throwing crap out there to see what sticks.

 

[mlk_man]

You mean Trojans, don't you?

The eyes of Texas are upon you~~~~~~~

Heck of a game!

 

[mlk_man]

If you got the tracker you would know all this...............

Also, if you go to fundsurfer's second post in this thread, you can download the attachment and it looks much better.

Haven't heard anyone else complaining. Hmmmmmmm

 

[cowboy]

Annual Tally!

The full year import tally was a disappointment. Can we get more conformity next year. For example for those that just want the monthly tally can it be organized by who had the best return for the month then who was next or maybe put the names Alphebetical. Could this be done quarterly and annually or not. Right now we have to look all over to find who had a total yearly return and organize it some how. What do others think about the import Tally? As this gets bigger the worse it is going to get. Look at that tracker and try to figure out who did what. Can you tell how MM did easily can you tell how I did easily. My point is if the tracker has me at 11% over the year can you tell that by looking at the Tally. I am just throwing things out here. If your going to do this lets try to improve it.

 

[mlk_man]

Fundsurfer, you get my PM?

 

[mlk_man]

I think what Mike is saying is to just add one more column to the tally and make it a "cumulative return" column. For most people this would be the same as their "yearly return" column since they started at the beginning of the year. But for the ones who started mid-January their "cumulative return" column would have their return since joining, whereas their "yearly return" column would say #N|A. This would help the people that don't get the weekly tracker to keep up with their returns. And the trackers...........

This right Mike?

 

[FundSurfer]

Monthly returns would be calendar month

'06 return (this would only have two trading days on it thus far )
One month return (Dec 5th through today's close)
Three month return (Oct 5th through today's close)
Six month return (July 5th through today's close)
1 year return (Jan 5th, '05 through today's close)
Cumulative return* - either come up with some unified date for everyone or else just put in some data as to when people started being officially tracked and then have this return = their total return since whenever the beginning was for them.

The Tally will still be posted monthly, so returns would still be on monthly basis. One month return Jan 1 to Jan 31. Can't handle a daily running tally with the spreadsheet.

The cumulative return is a little confusing. I meant using something like the trailing 1 year return (total of last 12 months). Seem like you are asking for something different here. If we made it from when people started, since everyone started at a different time it would be confusing, I think.

 

[mlk_man]

I don't think everyone is on the same track here. What would one expect I reckon..............

The tally that Fundsurfer posts does have people's quarterly returns each month on it, does it not?

The weekly tracker that I send out via e-mail, cowboy you are not on this, tracks each person every time they make an IFT. Perhaps if you got the weekly tracker you'd think differently about how inefficiently we run things and could check your IFT's each week and make sure we got it right?

For the record, the tracker has return for all of last year beginning Jan 13th as 11.74%. From what you said your moves were in your account for the first two weeks of Jan, your return for that period was -.55%. Your grand total for 2005 would be 11.19%. Congratulations!