Stratfor Analysis

My guess is that the Uzbeks are probably supporting Dostum inside Afghanistan, now that he's made his peace with Karzai during the last election.

The Afghan Uzbeks are usually represented by Dostum, a former Soviet supporter (communist), now allied closely to the Karzai government. Dostum probably executed a couple of hundred Taliban after the siege.

Late at night on 16 August 2009, Dostum made a surprise return from exile to Kabul to support President Hamid Karzai in his bid for re-election. The next day, the last day of campaigning, he flew by helicopter to his northern stronghold of Sheberghan, where he was greeted by 20,000 supporters in the local stadium. He subsequently made overtures to the United States, promising he could "destroy the Taliban and al Qaeda" if supported by the U.S., saying that "the U.S. needs strong friends like Dostum.

By the way, for a REALLY interesting story about Dostum's forces in Afghanistan, and about why we're having such difficulty now:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Kunduz

Inside the city, the Taliban reportedly hanged five of their own commanders who suggested surrendering to the Northern Alliance. Foreign fighters, fearing execution by the Northern Alliance, declared their intent to fight to the death.The foreign fighters began executing Afghan Taliban soldiers who considered surrender, killing 300 people.
Some of the foreign fighters, along with agents of the Pakistani ISI, were evacuated by Pakistani aircraft during the siege, in an event that has been nicknamed the "Airlift of Evil."

In 2008, more details have emerged in "Descent into Chaos" by Ahmed Rashid:
One senior (U.S.) intelligence analyst told me, "The request was made by Musharraf to Bush, but Cheney took charge--- a token of who was handling Musharraf at the time. The approval was not shared with anyone at State, including Colin Powell, until well after the event. Musharraf said Pakistan needed to save its dignity and its valued people. Two planes were involved, which made several sorties a night over several nights. They took off from air bases in Chitral and Gilgit in Pakistan's northern areas, and landed in Kunduz, where the evacuees were waiting on the tarmac. Certainly hundreds and perhaps as many as one thousand people escaped. Hundreds of ISI officers, Taliban commanders, and foot soldiers belonging to the IMU and al Qaeda personnel boarded the planes. What was sold as a minor extraction turned into a major air bridge.
 
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Let's also not forget the Uzbek-Al qaeda links from before. Complicated. IMU has pretty much been destroyed, but there probably are some remnants in the FATA in Pakistan. Their connections with ISI are probably also long-term in nature. Prior to 9/11, the Pakistani's reach into Afghanistan and beyond was probably fairly extensive in the former Soviet central asian republics. Now......I guess they probably miss that.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Movement_of_Uzbekistan

However, following 9/11 and the US-led coalition intervention in Afghanistan, the IMU was largely destroyed while fighting alongside the Taliban, and Namangani himself was killed. The IMU's fighters were scattered, with Yuldeshev and many others fleeing along with remnants of the Taliban to the tribal areas of Pakistan.
In September 2002 an aide to Wakil Ahmad Muttawakil, the Foreign Minister of the Taliban, claimed he had been sent prior to 9/11 to warn the U.S. government of an impending attack and to persuade them to take military action against Al Qaeda's presence in Afghanistan. The aide claimed advance knowledge of the attack came from Yuldashev, which if true would indicate a high degree of cooperation between Al-Qaeda and the IMU
 
Labas! I knew someone who had to periodically be carted off to jail for chaining herself to the gate at the former Soviet embassy in Washington years ago. The Lithuanian community kept sponsoring these events. I'm not sure if that ended up on her record as a felony. It's why the global war on terror has always troubled me so much.

Too bad Ukraine is such a linchpin. I have Ukrainian-heritage friends (2d generation) that are cold-enraged about Russian re-asserting political dominance over Ukraine. Have Lithuanian-heritage friends who are not happy either.
 
Interesting video.

http://dandelionsalad.wordpress.com...the-war-machine-is-the-mindset-in-washington/

Also references The Forty Years War by Colodny and Schachtman. His idea is that the biggest issues in the Washington mindset are economic, not ideological. Ideology is where the neocons were based. Talks a bit about what's happening in Afghanistan, from the Washington perspective.

http://themediavore.com/mediavore/2009/12/02/anthony-cordesman-on-afghanistan/

Cordesman predicts more casualties in Afghanistan.
 
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