12/04/25
Despite a weaker than expected ADP employment report, we got another nice rally in stocks yesterday, and it was the small caps that took the lead after trailing recently. Big tech lagged holding back the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 to some degree, but the broader indices did very well as market breadth was very positive. Yields and the dollar were down.
Internally the stock market did better than the S&P 500 and Nasdaq may have suggested, and that was because big tech lagged some, while small companies did well. Advancing stocks and share volume more than doubled the decliners.
The Equal Weight S&P 500 was up 0.76%, compared to the same 500 stocks in the S&P 500 Index, which was up 0.30%, and again that was because the heavier weighted large cap tech stocks lagged.
Small caps of the Russell 2000 were even more impressive, rallying 1.82%. And, as you'll see down below, the S-fund gained an impressive 1.39% yesterday.
The Dow Transportation Index is breaking out with authority. The 2% gain pushed it above the highs of the year made back in January. This is not an all time high, but it is getting close, and it is a good sign for the rest of the stock market..
Meanwhile the S&P 500 (C-fund) had a solid day but it needs a little more oomph to get above a potential flat top. As my friend Oscar Carboni likes to say, "flat tops bring market drops", so I am hoping this is more of a bull flag than a flat top. Support has been holding at key levels over the last four or five trading days.
Yields and the dollar were down yesterday helping out the S and I-funds, although I would have expected the I-fund to do better considering that 0.50% decline in UUP yesterday.
The odds of a Fed rate cut on December 10th remains 89%.
We will get the PCE Prices report on Friday.
The DWCPF Index (S-Fund) had a really good day as the small caps came back from a couple of bad looking trading days earlier in the week. The old resistance continues to hold as support and this has a pretty clear path to test the recent highs.
ACWX (I-fund) was up nicely yesterday, but with the dollar down 0.50%, I expected this to be higher. The I-fund was given a gain of 0.48%. It is teasing us by following along the bottom of that support line, and with that open gap down by 65.50, there is still a chance this could pull back before moving convincingly back into the channel. Why that night happen, I don't know, but with the 50-day average there for a retest as well, it should not be surprising, but there should be some dip buying right there should it occur.
BND (bonds / F-fund) rallied again as it tries to fill in the open gap from Monday. Support is holding after the double top pullback, but it will be interesting to see if a gap fill stall this recent rally.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Despite a weaker than expected ADP employment report, we got another nice rally in stocks yesterday, and it was the small caps that took the lead after trailing recently. Big tech lagged holding back the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 to some degree, but the broader indices did very well as market breadth was very positive. Yields and the dollar were down.
| Daily TSP Funds Return
More returns |
Internally the stock market did better than the S&P 500 and Nasdaq may have suggested, and that was because big tech lagged some, while small companies did well. Advancing stocks and share volume more than doubled the decliners.
The Equal Weight S&P 500 was up 0.76%, compared to the same 500 stocks in the S&P 500 Index, which was up 0.30%, and again that was because the heavier weighted large cap tech stocks lagged.
Small caps of the Russell 2000 were even more impressive, rallying 1.82%. And, as you'll see down below, the S-fund gained an impressive 1.39% yesterday.
The Dow Transportation Index is breaking out with authority. The 2% gain pushed it above the highs of the year made back in January. This is not an all time high, but it is getting close, and it is a good sign for the rest of the stock market..
Meanwhile the S&P 500 (C-fund) had a solid day but it needs a little more oomph to get above a potential flat top. As my friend Oscar Carboni likes to say, "flat tops bring market drops", so I am hoping this is more of a bull flag than a flat top. Support has been holding at key levels over the last four or five trading days.
Yields and the dollar were down yesterday helping out the S and I-funds, although I would have expected the I-fund to do better considering that 0.50% decline in UUP yesterday.
The odds of a Fed rate cut on December 10th remains 89%.
We will get the PCE Prices report on Friday.
The DWCPF Index (S-Fund) had a really good day as the small caps came back from a couple of bad looking trading days earlier in the week. The old resistance continues to hold as support and this has a pretty clear path to test the recent highs.
ACWX (I-fund) was up nicely yesterday, but with the dollar down 0.50%, I expected this to be higher. The I-fund was given a gain of 0.48%. It is teasing us by following along the bottom of that support line, and with that open gap down by 65.50, there is still a chance this could pull back before moving convincingly back into the channel. Why that night happen, I don't know, but with the 50-day average there for a retest as well, it should not be surprising, but there should be some dip buying right there should it occur.
BND (bonds / F-fund) rallied again as it tries to fill in the open gap from Monday. Support is holding after the double top pullback, but it will be interesting to see if a gap fill stall this recent rally.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
