11/13/25
Stocks were mixed on Wednesday as the Mag 7 stocks have become the Lag 7, with 6 of those 7 stocks closing sharply lower on the day as the AI trade loses some momentum. That caused the Nasdaq to be down on a day while the Dow made another new all time high, closing above 48,000 for the first time ever. Some Fed members are hinting that a rate cut is not needed in December and that is causing some concern for stocks, but the bond market isn't in agreement at the moment.
A reminder that, because of the federal holiday on Tuesday, the TSP Fund returns below combine the market action of both Tuesday and Wednesday.
Market breadth was fairly flat and tech stocks continue to lag a bit, but it had been leading the way for so long that perhaps the broader market is ready to make up some ground. That said, the broadest index that we follow, the DWCPF or the S-fund, was also down slightly on the day.
Yields were down sharply yesterday but BND was down a bit - normally they move in opposite directions. The reason for that is because BND traded higher on Tuesday when the bond market was closed, so the yields are just catching up yesterday, to what bond ETF traders already priced in on Tuesday.
With Fed members stepping up and moving toward the "no cut in December" camp, the bond market is seeing a decline in yields, although the 10-year Treasury Yield, currently 4.07%, is still above the pre-FOMC meeting level, which was below 4.0%.
Investors were was trying to make sense of this new hawkish outlook on rates, despite the clear concerns over the employment data. The odds of a cut in December dropped to 59%, the lowest we've seen in a while, but on the other hand the expectation for a cut by the January meeting are above 75%, so it's a case of holding off a month - it would actually be 7 weeks from the December 10th meeting to the January 28th meeting.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) was was up early on Wednesday but the Fed members' road block stopped the rally in its tracks. There's nothing wrong with this chart and the fact that it didn't sell off after those comments is probably a sign of strength. The open gap will be there for the bulls to worry about until it gets filled. It could turn out to be one of those gap and goes that doesn't get filled until the next major correction, but if it does get filled sooner rather than later, we can stop worrying about it.
The Dow Transportation Index hit its previous high so this economically sensitive index is showing some optimism. The double top means it could pullback in the short-term but if we zoom out more we can see that this could just be the right shoulder of a bullish inverted head and shoulders pattern.
If we go out even further, this chart has been consolidating for five years and looks like a possible giant bull flag, so if and when this breaks out, the move up could be massive. This could be the first sign of confirmed economic expansion. In the short-term however, the double top on that top chart could mean more patience is needed.
The DWCPF Index (S-Fund) is up against resistance and 2525 looks like a key pivot point. It could breakout above it, and that looks like a possible bull flag, or it could pullback, fill the gap, or even test the lower end of the flag again, but over all this looks like a bullish development that may or may not take some more patience. It depends what it does here at that resistance.
ACWX (I-fund) had another good day yesterday but it has made another double top. Sometimes these cause a brief pause, and other times it went right through that resistance. The trend is your friend in this one.
BND (bonds / F-fund) was flat but remember the F-fund's price reflects Tuesday and Wednesday's action in the bond market, and that was positive.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
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Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks were mixed on Wednesday as the Mag 7 stocks have become the Lag 7, with 6 of those 7 stocks closing sharply lower on the day as the AI trade loses some momentum. That caused the Nasdaq to be down on a day while the Dow made another new all time high, closing above 48,000 for the first time ever. Some Fed members are hinting that a rate cut is not needed in December and that is causing some concern for stocks, but the bond market isn't in agreement at the moment.
A reminder that, because of the federal holiday on Tuesday, the TSP Fund returns below combine the market action of both Tuesday and Wednesday.
| Daily TSP Funds Return
More returns |
Market breadth was fairly flat and tech stocks continue to lag a bit, but it had been leading the way for so long that perhaps the broader market is ready to make up some ground. That said, the broadest index that we follow, the DWCPF or the S-fund, was also down slightly on the day.
Yields were down sharply yesterday but BND was down a bit - normally they move in opposite directions. The reason for that is because BND traded higher on Tuesday when the bond market was closed, so the yields are just catching up yesterday, to what bond ETF traders already priced in on Tuesday.
With Fed members stepping up and moving toward the "no cut in December" camp, the bond market is seeing a decline in yields, although the 10-year Treasury Yield, currently 4.07%, is still above the pre-FOMC meeting level, which was below 4.0%.
Investors were was trying to make sense of this new hawkish outlook on rates, despite the clear concerns over the employment data. The odds of a cut in December dropped to 59%, the lowest we've seen in a while, but on the other hand the expectation for a cut by the January meeting are above 75%, so it's a case of holding off a month - it would actually be 7 weeks from the December 10th meeting to the January 28th meeting.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) was was up early on Wednesday but the Fed members' road block stopped the rally in its tracks. There's nothing wrong with this chart and the fact that it didn't sell off after those comments is probably a sign of strength. The open gap will be there for the bulls to worry about until it gets filled. It could turn out to be one of those gap and goes that doesn't get filled until the next major correction, but if it does get filled sooner rather than later, we can stop worrying about it.
The Dow Transportation Index hit its previous high so this economically sensitive index is showing some optimism. The double top means it could pullback in the short-term but if we zoom out more we can see that this could just be the right shoulder of a bullish inverted head and shoulders pattern.
If we go out even further, this chart has been consolidating for five years and looks like a possible giant bull flag, so if and when this breaks out, the move up could be massive. This could be the first sign of confirmed economic expansion. In the short-term however, the double top on that top chart could mean more patience is needed.
The DWCPF Index (S-Fund) is up against resistance and 2525 looks like a key pivot point. It could breakout above it, and that looks like a possible bull flag, or it could pullback, fill the gap, or even test the lower end of the flag again, but over all this looks like a bullish development that may or may not take some more patience. It depends what it does here at that resistance.
ACWX (I-fund) had another good day yesterday but it has made another double top. Sometimes these cause a brief pause, and other times it went right through that resistance. The trend is your friend in this one.
BND (bonds / F-fund) was flat but remember the F-fund's price reflects Tuesday and Wednesday's action in the bond market, and that was positive.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
