09/23/25
Although there are good arguments on both sides, the bulls continue to out dual the bears and take the indices to yet another new record high. There was no post expiration Friday turnaround, just more of the same, and while investors are getting more bullish, many sentiment type indicators are surprisingly not showing any extremes on the bullish side yet, meaning there may be more to go. But we are seeing some overbought readings, for sure.
One Sentiment Survey that is showing extreme bullishness is our weekly TSP Talk Sentiment Survey, which is taken each week on Thursday and / or Friday. Unlike other surveys, our weekly survey can turn on a dime and the two most recent polls showed that our readers are a bullish bunch after being fairly bearish just a month before.
But this is more of an outlier as the most recent AAII Investor Sentiment Survey came in with just 41% bulls and 42% bears. These type of surveys tell us that there are a lot of people still on the sidelines. Perhaps they never bought in after the tariff tantrum, or they've been talking profits recently. They are usually pretty good contrarian indicators at extremes, but we are seeing extremes on both sides between these two surveys.
This next data is from Bespoke (I added the S&P 500 weekly chart above it.) Basically it shows that the S&P 500 has gotten to an Extreme Overbought levels recently. The red arrows on the S&P chart correspond to the white arrows on Bespoke's overbought / oversold indicator in the middle.
==>> Source <<==
Gold is also an interesting asset. Look at the daily and weekly charts below. Why is big money pouring into this safe haven at this time? Central Banks and world governments are part of the groups buying. Do you think they know something we should know?
The Dow Transportation Index, considered one of the market leaders, was flat yesterday and is still coiling up for a big move in one direction or the other. It's getting closer to the apex so it may not be long before we find out.
The action has been great and that alone is a good reason to own stocks, with the Fed cutting rates is another, but there are certainly signs that we could have some kind of a pullback in the near future. I have been saying this for many weeks now, and while I have been very wrong about that up until this point, it doesn't mean these extremes can continue indefinitely. Enjoy the rally, but you may want to get mentally prepared for some kind of shift at some point. If I only knew exactly when that would happen.
The S&P 500 / C-fund popped higher to start the week and it is back testing the top of the rising trading channel, and it has shown little desire to pullback meaningfully in the last couple of weeks. We have seen a couple of tests of the bottom of the channel to start August and September, and to get there again it would be a very modest dip. It is getting stretched above the moving averages as well.
The DWCPF (S-fund) was up but lagged the large caps by a bit and it is also testing the top of its trading channel. It doesn't have to hold there, but the path of least resistance might be a test of the blue dashed line - at the least.
ACWX (I-fund) was helped by a small dip in the dollar and while we see a bearish looking flat top on ACWX, it could turn out to be a bull flag, and it may all depend on which way that UUP chart breaks next. They often move in opposite directions.
BND (bonds / F-fund) was down again but it remains atop of the open gap that really should look to get filled, now that it is below the resistance line. 74 looks like a good area for support, then 73.75.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Although there are good arguments on both sides, the bulls continue to out dual the bears and take the indices to yet another new record high. There was no post expiration Friday turnaround, just more of the same, and while investors are getting more bullish, many sentiment type indicators are surprisingly not showing any extremes on the bullish side yet, meaning there may be more to go. But we are seeing some overbought readings, for sure.
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One Sentiment Survey that is showing extreme bullishness is our weekly TSP Talk Sentiment Survey, which is taken each week on Thursday and / or Friday. Unlike other surveys, our weekly survey can turn on a dime and the two most recent polls showed that our readers are a bullish bunch after being fairly bearish just a month before.
But this is more of an outlier as the most recent AAII Investor Sentiment Survey came in with just 41% bulls and 42% bears. These type of surveys tell us that there are a lot of people still on the sidelines. Perhaps they never bought in after the tariff tantrum, or they've been talking profits recently. They are usually pretty good contrarian indicators at extremes, but we are seeing extremes on both sides between these two surveys.
This next data is from Bespoke (I added the S&P 500 weekly chart above it.) Basically it shows that the S&P 500 has gotten to an Extreme Overbought levels recently. The red arrows on the S&P chart correspond to the white arrows on Bespoke's overbought / oversold indicator in the middle.
==>> Source <<==
Gold is also an interesting asset. Look at the daily and weekly charts below. Why is big money pouring into this safe haven at this time? Central Banks and world governments are part of the groups buying. Do you think they know something we should know?
The Dow Transportation Index, considered one of the market leaders, was flat yesterday and is still coiling up for a big move in one direction or the other. It's getting closer to the apex so it may not be long before we find out.
The action has been great and that alone is a good reason to own stocks, with the Fed cutting rates is another, but there are certainly signs that we could have some kind of a pullback in the near future. I have been saying this for many weeks now, and while I have been very wrong about that up until this point, it doesn't mean these extremes can continue indefinitely. Enjoy the rally, but you may want to get mentally prepared for some kind of shift at some point. If I only knew exactly when that would happen.
The S&P 500 / C-fund popped higher to start the week and it is back testing the top of the rising trading channel, and it has shown little desire to pullback meaningfully in the last couple of weeks. We have seen a couple of tests of the bottom of the channel to start August and September, and to get there again it would be a very modest dip. It is getting stretched above the moving averages as well.
The DWCPF (S-fund) was up but lagged the large caps by a bit and it is also testing the top of its trading channel. It doesn't have to hold there, but the path of least resistance might be a test of the blue dashed line - at the least.
ACWX (I-fund) was helped by a small dip in the dollar and while we see a bearish looking flat top on ACWX, it could turn out to be a bull flag, and it may all depend on which way that UUP chart breaks next. They often move in opposite directions.
BND (bonds / F-fund) was down again but it remains atop of the open gap that really should look to get filled, now that it is below the resistance line. 74 looks like a good area for support, then 73.75.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
