03/26/26
Once again we did get some buying near the opening bell yesterday, but the bulls can't seem to sustain the strength throughout the day. The highs of the day were made in the first 15-minutes of trading before the "sell the rips" folks stepped up. The major indices did hold onto moderate gains, but these weak closes below support have been demoralizing for the bulls.
We came into Wednesday with the news that there could be a ceasefire in the Middle East, and oil futures dropped while equity futures moved up sharply. That did rollover into the opening bell but the direction of both quickly reversed with oil moving up slowly all day, and the stock market losing steam as investors weighed the reality of the new war negotiations that are going on. Some of Iran's demands were a little unrealistic so how serious can we take this development?
The daily chart of oil was down, but just 1.2% after climbing off the lows. That red bull flag may have broken so we'll see if the 91 area can hold as resistance now that it has closed below the flag for three straight days. An open gap was filled on Monday and there was a gap opened to start the month in the mid-60's.
The credit markets are another concern right now and HYG, the High Yield Corporate Bond Fund has been trading below its 65-day average most of this month after it had held for months, and ...
... the weekly chart has held at the 40-week moving average for years, outside of a week in 2025 during the tariff tantrum. That area is being tested now.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) was up about 78-points at the highs yesterday in that first 15-minutes of trading. It did hold onto a 36-point gain but clearly the bulls can't gather any momentum. There was enough selling late in the day yesterday to close the index below that 200-day moving average by less than 2-points. That's 4-straight closes below the average.
The weekly charts of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 area still hanging onto those 50-week moving averages, but it's getting close. Holding here would be convenient and maybe not surprising, so a break below that technical level could become trouble for the longer term.
The market has been holding on for a few days but investors seem to be waiting for something more definitive, whether it is on Iran and the price of oil, the credit market, inflation, and possible the weakening labor market. We will get the March jobs report a week from tomorrow, so in the interim the market could remain skeptical sans some positive geopolitical news.
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) had a nice day, closing back above its 200-day average for the first time in 6-trading days. There is still plenty of overhead resistance, including the neckline of that broken head and shoulders pattern that it fell through earlier this month. As I mentioned before, there is a technical case that the downside target of the head and shoulders pattern was satisfied when it reached 2385 last week.
ACWX (I-fund) gapped up and posted a strong gain for the day, but it closed below the 100-day average yet again, and that's six days in a row below that old broken support. Yesterday opened a small gap near 67.50, but there's also a larger open gap up by 73.
BND (bonds / F-fund) rallied along with the stock market as yields came down, but the chart is still below several layers of resistance.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
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Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Once again we did get some buying near the opening bell yesterday, but the bulls can't seem to sustain the strength throughout the day. The highs of the day were made in the first 15-minutes of trading before the "sell the rips" folks stepped up. The major indices did hold onto moderate gains, but these weak closes below support have been demoralizing for the bulls.
| Daily TSP Funds Return More returns |
We came into Wednesday with the news that there could be a ceasefire in the Middle East, and oil futures dropped while equity futures moved up sharply. That did rollover into the opening bell but the direction of both quickly reversed with oil moving up slowly all day, and the stock market losing steam as investors weighed the reality of the new war negotiations that are going on. Some of Iran's demands were a little unrealistic so how serious can we take this development?
The daily chart of oil was down, but just 1.2% after climbing off the lows. That red bull flag may have broken so we'll see if the 91 area can hold as resistance now that it has closed below the flag for three straight days. An open gap was filled on Monday and there was a gap opened to start the month in the mid-60's.
The credit markets are another concern right now and HYG, the High Yield Corporate Bond Fund has been trading below its 65-day average most of this month after it had held for months, and ...
... the weekly chart has held at the 40-week moving average for years, outside of a week in 2025 during the tariff tantrum. That area is being tested now.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) was up about 78-points at the highs yesterday in that first 15-minutes of trading. It did hold onto a 36-point gain but clearly the bulls can't gather any momentum. There was enough selling late in the day yesterday to close the index below that 200-day moving average by less than 2-points. That's 4-straight closes below the average.
The weekly charts of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 area still hanging onto those 50-week moving averages, but it's getting close. Holding here would be convenient and maybe not surprising, so a break below that technical level could become trouble for the longer term.
The market has been holding on for a few days but investors seem to be waiting for something more definitive, whether it is on Iran and the price of oil, the credit market, inflation, and possible the weakening labor market. We will get the March jobs report a week from tomorrow, so in the interim the market could remain skeptical sans some positive geopolitical news.
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) had a nice day, closing back above its 200-day average for the first time in 6-trading days. There is still plenty of overhead resistance, including the neckline of that broken head and shoulders pattern that it fell through earlier this month. As I mentioned before, there is a technical case that the downside target of the head and shoulders pattern was satisfied when it reached 2385 last week.
ACWX (I-fund) gapped up and posted a strong gain for the day, but it closed below the 100-day average yet again, and that's six days in a row below that old broken support. Yesterday opened a small gap near 67.50, but there's also a larger open gap up by 73.
BND (bonds / F-fund) rallied along with the stock market as yields came down, but the chart is still below several layers of resistance.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
