01/16/26
We saw green across the board yesterday in the stock indices but there was a steady decline into the close, taking them well off their highs of the day. Yields and the dollar rallied on better than expected jobless claims data. Despite the rise in yields, small caps outperformed again, while the I-fund tried to keep pace with the S&P 500.
Reminder: I have some personal plans this week so the commentaries may be a little brief, and I may not respond to emails as quickly as I'd normally like to. I apologize for any inconvenience this may cause.
The 10-year Treasury Yield continues to bounce around within the moving averages, and has been for the last six weeks, waiting for the next catalyst.
The dollar has also been rallying since the 200-day average was tested and held around Christmas. The I-fund is being impacted, but not as badly as I might have expected.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) continues to act tentatively around the recent highs instead of breaking out with any authority, and that's why I've been concerned about the bearish Wyckoff distribution pattern.
And here is that chart pattern, for future reference. 6900 really needs to hold on the chart above.
The Equal Weighted S&P 500 (same 500 stocks as the S&P 500 Index) looks much better as the smaller companies in the S&P have been outperforming, suggesting the AI trade is getting tired. However, the chart is up against resistance and there is room for a pullback.
Still waiting on the Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs, which could be the next major catalyst.
From tsp.gov: Holiday Closing - "Some financial markets will be closed on Monday, January 19, in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day. The Thrift Savings Plan will also be closed. Transactions that would have been processed Monday night (January 19) will be processed Tuesday night (January 20) at Tuesday's closing share prices."
Admin note: We plan to have annual subscription sale during the week of January 19 - 23. More details to follow but we did move upcoming expiring annual subscription dates out until that day so you can renew that week without a lapse. As always, if you have an annual subscription that does not expire this month, or if you want to convert a monthly subscription to annual, the sale will allow you to tack on another year to your current subscriptions at the sale price. Also, we are considering a price increase after the sale, so this will lock in the lower price. As you can imagine, the costs of doing business has gone up quite a bit in the last 20 years and the TSP Talk Plus and Revshark premium service prices have remained the same since the day they started. A cure for that would be more subscribers so, spread the word and we may leave prices alone. That's a bribe.
DWCPF (S-fund) led again despite yields moving up yesterday. Filling the gap would help, and a retest of the blue dashed line would be OK as well, but we also have to be cognizant of that open gap by 2525 as a potential pullback target if support fails. Otherwise, it's a great looking chart.
The ACWX (I-fund index) has been clinging to the top of that trading channel trading channel, and even with the rally in the dollar, there have been few signs of slowing down. But there are a lot of reasons why this could pullback to fill in the gaps. Is this pricing in the SCOTUS ruling that Trump's tariffs are illegal?
BND (bonds / F-fund) fell yesterday, giving back most of Wednesday's gains. That's a failed breakout so there's the possibility of another test of the lower end of its recent range.
Thanks so much for reading! Have a great holiday weekend!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
We saw green across the board yesterday in the stock indices but there was a steady decline into the close, taking them well off their highs of the day. Yields and the dollar rallied on better than expected jobless claims data. Despite the rise in yields, small caps outperformed again, while the I-fund tried to keep pace with the S&P 500.
| Daily TSP Funds Return
More returns |
Reminder: I have some personal plans this week so the commentaries may be a little brief, and I may not respond to emails as quickly as I'd normally like to. I apologize for any inconvenience this may cause.
The 10-year Treasury Yield continues to bounce around within the moving averages, and has been for the last six weeks, waiting for the next catalyst.
The dollar has also been rallying since the 200-day average was tested and held around Christmas. The I-fund is being impacted, but not as badly as I might have expected.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) continues to act tentatively around the recent highs instead of breaking out with any authority, and that's why I've been concerned about the bearish Wyckoff distribution pattern.
And here is that chart pattern, for future reference. 6900 really needs to hold on the chart above.
The Equal Weighted S&P 500 (same 500 stocks as the S&P 500 Index) looks much better as the smaller companies in the S&P have been outperforming, suggesting the AI trade is getting tired. However, the chart is up against resistance and there is room for a pullback.
Still waiting on the Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs, which could be the next major catalyst.
From tsp.gov: Holiday Closing - "Some financial markets will be closed on Monday, January 19, in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day. The Thrift Savings Plan will also be closed. Transactions that would have been processed Monday night (January 19) will be processed Tuesday night (January 20) at Tuesday's closing share prices."
Admin note: We plan to have annual subscription sale during the week of January 19 - 23. More details to follow but we did move upcoming expiring annual subscription dates out until that day so you can renew that week without a lapse. As always, if you have an annual subscription that does not expire this month, or if you want to convert a monthly subscription to annual, the sale will allow you to tack on another year to your current subscriptions at the sale price. Also, we are considering a price increase after the sale, so this will lock in the lower price. As you can imagine, the costs of doing business has gone up quite a bit in the last 20 years and the TSP Talk Plus and Revshark premium service prices have remained the same since the day they started. A cure for that would be more subscribers so, spread the word and we may leave prices alone. That's a bribe.
DWCPF (S-fund) led again despite yields moving up yesterday. Filling the gap would help, and a retest of the blue dashed line would be OK as well, but we also have to be cognizant of that open gap by 2525 as a potential pullback target if support fails. Otherwise, it's a great looking chart.
The ACWX (I-fund index) has been clinging to the top of that trading channel trading channel, and even with the rally in the dollar, there have been few signs of slowing down. But there are a lot of reasons why this could pullback to fill in the gaps. Is this pricing in the SCOTUS ruling that Trump's tariffs are illegal?
BND (bonds / F-fund) fell yesterday, giving back most of Wednesday's gains. That's a failed breakout so there's the possibility of another test of the lower end of its recent range.
Thanks so much for reading! Have a great holiday weekend!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
