Stocks were mixed on Friday as the Dow gained 16-points, the S&P 500 was flat, the I-fund was down, and small caps were up. Last week we had a digestion of the prior week's jobs report rally, and now this week the Fed meeting will be making the headlines.
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 300"]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 163"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 83, align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="width: 80, align: right"] +0.0056%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 83, align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="width: 80, align: right"] +0.07%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 83, align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="width: 80, align: right"] -0.01%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 83, align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="width: 80, align: right"] +0.38%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 83, align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="width: 80, align: right"] -0.22%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 69%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Chances are the Fed won't make any changes to their current monetary policy, but investors are aware that tapering of the bond buying possible is going to start at some point, probably sooner than later, and there is an outside chance something may be done this week. Tapering would be a sign of confidence from the Fed since it would indicate that the economy has shown improvement, but what that will mean to the stock market and is questionable because investors want cheap, easy money, and the heck with the economy. At least that is the way it has been for the last few years.
The S&P 500 (SPY) fell through the bottom its short-term rising parallel trading channel and may be forming a bear flag as it flirts with the 50-day EMA. It has been down 8 of the last 10 trading days but we are getting closer to the strongest seasonal part of the year. Not a guarantee for gains, but over the years the odds favor the bulls in the latter half of December.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The small caps broke down from their intermediate-term rising trading channel last week and the Russell 2000 is now in a battle between a possible negative looking bear flag, and support from the 50-day EMA.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Nasdaq also has the start of a bear flag but a similar pattern in November found support at the 20-day EMA and it rallied sharply.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
One of our members asked if I would start talking about gold in the commentary. I don't think this is the place for a regular discussion about gold, but we do have threads within the forum for anyone interested... Commodities
But since we're on the subject, there are some technical signs that gold, which has been pounded all year, may be looking to make a little run. There is still some work to be done on the chart, but gold sentiment has gotten very bearish and that may give a cushion underneath the recent lows. There are several open gaps on the GLD ETF that need filling so while the overall trend is down, perhaps it is due for some backing and filling before we see new lows?
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
This chart shows that Rydex investors have the lowest amount of assets, and lowest percentage of their account, in gold in several years.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
If nothing else, it could be an extreme oversold reading but with these sentiment readings being as low as they are, I think the gold market may have just run out of sellers, which means there may be only one way to go - in the short -term.
Bonds are still flirting with breaking down as these charts look bearish and these ETF's are dancing above and below some important support levels. But like gold, investor sentiment in bonds is getting extreme and may be calling for a little bounce.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Our TSP Talk Sentiment Survey System has done very well over the years (and up over 28% this year) going against investor sentiment so perhaps this extreme bearish sentiment reading in bonds and gold is a bullish sign for these two unwanted investments?
In today's TSP Talk Plus Report we look at an intermediate and longer term chart of the S&P 500, the Sentiment Survey Results, and a bond sentiment chart. Plus we'll take a look and see what the VIX is telling us. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 300"]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 163"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 83, align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="width: 80, align: right"] +0.0056%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 83, align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="width: 80, align: right"] +0.07%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 83, align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="width: 80, align: right"] -0.01%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 83, align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="width: 80, align: right"] +0.38%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 83, align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="width: 80, align: right"] -0.22%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 69%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Chances are the Fed won't make any changes to their current monetary policy, but investors are aware that tapering of the bond buying possible is going to start at some point, probably sooner than later, and there is an outside chance something may be done this week. Tapering would be a sign of confidence from the Fed since it would indicate that the economy has shown improvement, but what that will mean to the stock market and is questionable because investors want cheap, easy money, and the heck with the economy. At least that is the way it has been for the last few years.
The S&P 500 (SPY) fell through the bottom its short-term rising parallel trading channel and may be forming a bear flag as it flirts with the 50-day EMA. It has been down 8 of the last 10 trading days but we are getting closer to the strongest seasonal part of the year. Not a guarantee for gains, but over the years the odds favor the bulls in the latter half of December.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The small caps broke down from their intermediate-term rising trading channel last week and the Russell 2000 is now in a battle between a possible negative looking bear flag, and support from the 50-day EMA.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Nasdaq also has the start of a bear flag but a similar pattern in November found support at the 20-day EMA and it rallied sharply.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
One of our members asked if I would start talking about gold in the commentary. I don't think this is the place for a regular discussion about gold, but we do have threads within the forum for anyone interested... Commodities
But since we're on the subject, there are some technical signs that gold, which has been pounded all year, may be looking to make a little run. There is still some work to be done on the chart, but gold sentiment has gotten very bearish and that may give a cushion underneath the recent lows. There are several open gaps on the GLD ETF that need filling so while the overall trend is down, perhaps it is due for some backing and filling before we see new lows?
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
This chart shows that Rydex investors have the lowest amount of assets, and lowest percentage of their account, in gold in several years.
If nothing else, it could be an extreme oversold reading but with these sentiment readings being as low as they are, I think the gold market may have just run out of sellers, which means there may be only one way to go - in the short -term.
Bonds are still flirting with breaking down as these charts look bearish and these ETF's are dancing above and below some important support levels. But like gold, investor sentiment in bonds is getting extreme and may be calling for a little bounce.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Our TSP Talk Sentiment Survey System has done very well over the years (and up over 28% this year) going against investor sentiment so perhaps this extreme bearish sentiment reading in bonds and gold is a bullish sign for these two unwanted investments?
In today's TSP Talk Plus Report we look at an intermediate and longer term chart of the S&P 500, the Sentiment Survey Results, and a bond sentiment chart. Plus we'll take a look and see what the VIX is telling us. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
