Stock Market Pullback is upon us! Get ready for the dump

[felixthecat]

I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that the Stock Market is ready to begin the final plunge. May take a few months to bottom. Investor greed is ripe for the picking and before we are able to see the next bull run…we first must endure some real pain. Most likely we will see the recession hit hard in the second half of this year. I’m sure I will continue to be disappointed at the pace of the eventual bottom of the bear market. When the recession is announced by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)…it usually takes some lag time by up to 6 months before the turnaround. Not only that…the stock market does not bottom until well after the FED PIVOTS. So folks, we got some pain coming before we can officially put an end to this bear market.

I will be bailing out this week and looking for a 10 percent decline for a mild recession to perhaps 20 percent for a harder landing. I get a strong sense that bank lending is quickly slowing and credit defaults will be the story on the way down. The consumer is probably tapped out and hunkering down for awhile. Looking for more bankruptcies in the retail space as well. Job layoffs off to a good start but more to come. Threat of a lowering of USA credit rating and the dollar demise is of real concern. Seriously, the debt level is not sustainable here. The division inside our government makes me nervous that we may default if the debt ceiling is not taken care of. We need real cuts in government spending to turn our fortunes around. I don’t see that happening. Good luck!

 

[nasa1974]

I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that the Stock Market is ready to begin the final plunge. May take a few months to bottom. Investor greed is ripe for the picking and before we are able to see the next bull run…we first must endure some real pain. Most likely we will see the recession hit hard in the second half of this year. I’m sure I will continue to be disappointed at the pace of the eventual bottom of the bear market. When the recession is announced by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)…it usually takes some lag time by up to 6 months before the turnaround. Not only that…the stock market does not bottom until well after the FED PIVOTS. So folks, we got some pain coming before we can officially put an end to this bear market.

I will be bailing out this week and looking for a 10 percent decline for a mild recession to perhaps 20 percent for a harder landing. I get a strong sense that bank lending is quickly slowing and credit defaults will be the story on the way down. The consumer is probably tapped out and hunkering down for awhile. Looking for more bankruptcies in the retail space as well. Job layoffs off to a good start but more to come. Threat of a lowering of USA credit rating and the dollar demise is of real concern. Seriously, the debt level is not sustainable here. The division inside our government makes me nervous that we may default if the debt ceiling is not taken care of. We need real cuts in government spending to turn our fortunes around. I don’t see that happening.  Good luck!

Better late than never. Probably should look at the "I" fund.

 

[Boghie]

Seriously, the debt level is not sustainable here. The division inside our government makes me nervous that we may default if the debt ceiling is not taken care of. We need real cuts in government spending to turn our fortunes around. I don’t see that happening. �� Good luck!

Who cares about the debt ceiling?

Our politicians think they control the situation, but they don't. Even if they - and, they will - get some dumb agreement it will mean nothing. When people/countries don't want to buy our debt they will stop buying our debt. Increasing the offered interest rate will pull more back into purchase mode, but at some point there are better and safer options out there. It does not matter if a bunch of failed lawyers agree on something or whatever. It will be such a surprise!!!

And, yeah, the ONLY thing that matters is dealing with the annual deficit. My guess is that they won't in reality. They will promise to cut the increase in spending or some such nonsense. They think they control the situation. Someday it will go 'poof' and they/we will all be left hanging.

 

[felixthecat]

Who cares about the debt ceiling?

Our politicians think they control the situation, but they don't. Even if they - and, they will - get some dumb agreement it will mean nothing. When people/countries don't want to buy our debt they will stop buying our debt. Increasing the offered interest rate will pull more back into purchase mode, but at some point there are better and safer options out there. It does not matter if a bunch of failed lawyers agree on something or whatever. It will be such a surprise!!!

And, yeah, the ONLY thing that matters is dealing with the annual deficit. My guess is that they won't in reality. They will promise to cut the increase in spending or some such nonsense. They think they control the situation. Someday it will go 'poof' and they/we will all be left hanging.

You make good points. I want to see financial responsibility. We are not getting that. If the government cannot manage this debt, then the outlook for our country will deteriorate and our markets will follow.

 

[felixthecat]

I like the I fund but do not like US abd Europe contagion spreading to other world economies. Our markets are globally tied so let us see what happens in the I fund over the next couple of months. My guess…we have seen the top of the I fund gains.