Steel_Magnolia's Account Talk

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poolman said:
Thank You for posting your chart. I finally took the time to look at it and study it. This is quite an impressive chart you have designed and made.

Thanks again!

Post Again, I was afraid when I replied that your chart would not show up. Sorry
Click to expand...
No worries, Poolman, thank you for letting me know that it's helpful. I really appreciate that! Here is the snapshot I took about a half hour ago:


And because things are moving quickly this morning, here is an update as of 8:40 am MDT.

View attachment 10904

Less interest in C Fund now. I'm still hanging on to my TNA because I don't think this downturn is anything but reaction to uncertainty of government shutdown, oil prices, etc. I think situations will become more clear over the weekend and the markets will then stabilize and resume upward trend. As Coolhand likes to point out, there is a lot of liquidity out there right now.

Take care,
Ann
​
 
Here's a screenshot of my analytical chart, as of about five minutes ago:


As you can see, EFA (I Fund) is doing the best price-wise this morning and also has the only "1 Week MoneyStream Surge" as well as being above all its simple moving averages.

IWM (S Fund) has the biggest volume buzz, but with its negative price change that just means that more people are selling it than are buying other funds. The EFA's negative volume buzz means to me that most buyers are already in and enjoying the uptick.

I'm still holding on to my S and C Fund analogs and because I think that S Fund will continue going up in the longer term I'll probably buy some more. I have been reluctant to buy EFA because of its higher beta (more erratic price jumps) but may have to nibble there too. Look at the "Five Day Price Trend" for AGG (F Fund analog). People and institutions are selling US bonds and they will be looking for places to put that money, which means even more liquidity than before.

Y'all be careful out there!
 
My apologies for not posting a chart before the IFT deadline today. A personal emergency kept me away from the computer until now.

You already know that money is pouring out of all three equity funds (C, S and I) and that F Fund is seeing a small uptick. I still think that this is a correction in an uptrend rather than the start of a downtrend. But those of you who have both IFTs left or those of you who don't have strong stomachs may want to go to G Fund to wait out the carnage. Remember to protect your seed corn!

One of my TNA stops has been hit but I still have one position left in the fund. My C Fund stop has been hit also. I won't sell my TNA unless it hits the other stop. But I won't initiate any new positions until the market begins to regain its footing either.

Y'all be careful out there.
 
Here is this morning's edition of my analytical chart:


As you can see, things look a lot better this morning than they did yesterday. The best looking equity fund is currently EFA (I Fund) according to its moving averages measured against itself, which are represented by the colored dots on the chart. If you look at where the money stream is this morning, it is going to AGG (F Fund). But IWM (S Fund) is still doing the best if you compare the 5-day averages vs. the market.

What that means to me is that I'm keeping my TNA position (accelerated S Fund) and I'm adding a position in EFA.

Let's all be careful out there!
 
Here is today's analytical chart:


As you can see, EFA (I Fund) continues to strengthen in comparison to IWM and SPY (S and C Funds, respectively). And AGG (F Fund) is starting to show some interest.

As for my holdings, I finally sold my TNA (2x S Fund) yesterday. My EFA is doing well and I added to my holdings there. I won't look at C or S Funds until they start to build a base again.

Let's all be careful out there!
 
Steel_Magnolia said:
Here is today's analytical chart:


As you can see, EFA (I Fund) continues to strengthen in comparison to IWM and SPY (S and C Funds, respectively). And AGG (F Fund) is starting to show some interest.

As for my holdings, I finally sold my TNA (2x S Fund) yesterday. My EFA is doing well and I added to my holdings there. I won't look at C or S Funds until they start to build a base again.

Let's all be careful out there!
Click to expand...

I just added to my "I" holdings as well. Diverted my payroll contribution to 100% I. :D

Thanks for the comforting news. ;)
 
Welcome, Judy, weatherweenie, and FWM! I'm glad you stopped by for a visit.

weatherweenie said:
I appreciate the time and effort you put in to post your moves.

Do you ever use any vehicles that short the market?
Click to expand...

And thanks for your appreciation, WW. I don't like to short the market. I do use some inverse vehicles though, such as TZA (2x inverse S Fund) and SDS (2x inverse C Fund).

FireWeatherMet said:
Nice Charts. 1st time here.

Man...I probably should have checked here first...but I just left the -G- cave and rolled the dice on the S and C funds finding support at their 50 day EMA's. :confused:

I often employ a contrarian short term play of looking for the most beat down funds over a 1-2 week period (unless a big correction to below the 100 day EMA is underway)...and stay in for 1-2 weeks, in hopes of making at least 1% per month. Have done this since last July and in the last 9 months have averaged 1.3%/month (16% annually).
Click to expand...

I hope your S/C move works well for you. That's a nice average return! Your strategy is an interesting one, thanks for sharing.

And I hope to see you back here often!

Ann, aka Maggie, Lady, Morgana and River
 
Here is this morning's analytical chart:


As shown by UUP, the dollar is up today. So EFA (I Fund) is down. And look at the yellow dots popping up for SPY and IWM, which means that C and S Funds are starting back up and are over their 3-day average. So is AGG (F Fund) and it's a little unusual to have those three moving to the up side at the same time. In fact, right now F Fund is looking the best.

We're seeing some good intermediate news for stocks, though. For example, imports and exports. Institutional investors represent over half of stock market volume so it's good to watch the data they watch. And they pay a lot of attention to export activity. A financial newsletter that I get says that in March 2011 outbound traffic was the third highest in history. And if US companies are selling that's going to show up in paychecks too.

It's nice to see some good news. But y'all still be careful out there.
 
Black Monday did some damage to a lot of equities. Here's what it did to TSP funds:


As you can see, F Fund's analog, AGG, is the only one looking healthy across the board right now, and that's where the money stream is going as well.

The only thing that surprises me is that people were so shocked that S&P downgraded its opinion of how we are handling our debt. Really? Is there anyone who thinks we're not playing political football with our budget? Amazing.
 
What a difference a day makes!


Big smiles for this "Turn-Around Tuesday." Momentum is big across the board for all three equity funds (CSI) with almost as much money pouring into S Fund as is coming into the F Fund (see "MoneyStream"). S Fund also wins the "Volume Buzz" and is closely behind F Fund (AGG) in "5-Day Price Trend."

If you're going to pull funds out, this is a good day to end on. And it may also be the continuation of trend that many of us are looking for. I'm betting on S and C Funds continuing up and I'm putting leveraged money where my mouth is.
 
Steel_Magnolia said:
What a difference a day makes!


Big smiles for this "Turn-Around Tuesday." Momentum is big across the board for all three equity funds (CSI) with almost as much money pouring into S Fund as is coming into the F Fund (see "MoneyStream"). S Fund also wins the "Volume Buzz" and is closely behind F Fund (AGG) in "5-Day Price Trend."

If you're going to pull funds out, this is a good day to end on. And it may also be the continuation of trend that many of us are looking for. I'm betting on S and C Funds continuing up and I'm putting leveraged money where my mouth is.
Click to expand...

Lady, one thing folks overlooked on Monday's action. 75% of the drop was in one 15 minute candle, the other 25% drop was throughout the day. This means the selloff didn't have the weight needed to push us down further. Yawn...
 
JTH said:
Lady, one thing folks overlooked on Monday's action. 75% of the drop was in one 15 minute candle, the other 25% drop was throughout the day. This means the selloff didn't have the weight needed to push us down further. Yawn...
Click to expand...
Excellent point, and THAT is Exhibit A for why I'm a chart junkie! Technical analysis of a chart will tell a story that you just can't get from pretty dots.

And that is why I bought more leveraged C and S Funds yesterday. They are currently up 4% and 5.5% respectively. <this is Ann with a big smiley face>
 
Here is today's analytical chart:


The chart makes it easy to see that all three equity funds are doing very well. AGG, the F Fund analog, is also doing well but you can see that yesterday's action slowed its momentum a little. IWM, S Fund, is currently looking the strongest in the chart.

The chart is a way to get a lot of information at a glance. However, as JTH intimated in his visit yesterday, if you have the time, technical charts provide much more information that can be gleaned about what each fund is doing. My technical charts show S Fund as strongest, then I Fund, C Fund and F Fund, in that order.

There is a long weekend approaching so today is "Friday" and the way things have been going lately who knows if we are going to have some catastrophic event over the weekend that will affect the markets. But I'm holding my C Fund analog, doubling up on my S Fund, and buying an I Fund position.

That's my plan. Good luck with yours!
 
Here's my little dot chart showing what the markets are doing as of about five minutes ago:


It's clear that the equities are strong. Money is flowing into all three equity funds, with SPY and IWM finally gaining ground on EFA (C, S and I, respectively). With silver trading down sharply this morning it would seem that all is well.

I think that Bernake's remarks tomorrow and what the dollar does over the next week or so will either confirm or break the trend.

Let's stay nimble.
 
Here's this morning's dot chart:


Today's darling appears to be the I Fund Analog, EFA. But volume buzz and money surge are both voting for S Fund (IWM). The markets are many things but boring isn't one of them.

I have a huge position in silver so I have to go bite my nails now.
 
Here's the dot chart, as of about 5 minutes ago:


All three equity funds now looking okay, although C and S funds were down earlier this morning. EFA, the I Fund analog has made the best money over the last week and you can see that in the "5 Day Trend vs. Market" column. But as you can see by the colorful chart, there isn't much weakness in any of the three equity funds right now. More money has been flowing into S Fund (IWM) than either of the other two, as shown in the MoneyStream Surge column.

I'm still holding leveraged S and C Fund analogs.

Y'all be careful out there and have a fun weekend!
 
Steel_Magnolia: Thank you for the info. It is a very interesting info. EFA seems to be the best buy value. It was in the 85 plus range in October 2007, and the IWM is already in the all times high. However, Japan and Europe economic situations keep me cautious. What do you think?:confused:
 
TSPIntel said:
Steel_Magnolia: Thank you for the info. It is a very interesting info. EFA seems to be the best buy value. It was in the 85 plus range in October 2007, and the IWM is already in the all times high. However, Japan and Europe economic situations keep me cautious. What do you think?:confused:
Click to expand...
I think that being in any of the equities is a good idea at the moment. And I think that the closer the US Dollar Index gets to that $71 threshold, the better EFA is going to look.

But then that's just my opinion and you could put a five dollar bill with that and still not have enough for a Starbucks visit.
 
Steel_Magnolia said:
I think that being in any of the equities is a good idea at the moment. And I think that the closer the US Dollar Index gets to that $71 threshold, the better EFA is going to look.

But then that's just my opinion and you could put a five dollar bill with that and still not have enough for a Starbucks visit.
Click to expand...
Steel_Magnolia: You will have to invite me to a cup of coffee and I would bring the Kahlua before I invest in the I Fund. I am park on the S Fund right now. Buy you may change my mind tomorrow.:)
 
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