Steadygain's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Profitability resides in the ride ahead. The biggest surprise for the majority would be for a day to day advance in the face of all the gloom and doom. The market has a tendency to rebalance against all the negativity - well when. I'm reminded that capitalism without failure is like religion without hell.

 

[Steadygain]

I could not agree with you less. Like many thousands of others, I am a military veteran collecting disability income and veteran medical treatment. Recently retired from Civil Service.

I could like to expand on this subject but using a Commodore 128 computer with slooow internet service, I keep my responses short.

Let me guess...

You're a military veteran... that in all liklihood means you actually swore into the Service and wore a uniform for maybe a few months..

You got a General under honorable conditions....because it's too much hassle for them to give a dishonorable

and this gives you the opportunity to make the VA give you treatment and medications for LIFE - because you're one of the 90% of unfit soldiers that take the system for every thing it's worth.

Oh and you probably got out as an E1

If this applies to you Handballer - then YES - I would immediately take your disability along with thousands and thousands of others who conviently rob a system that was meant for the worthy.

I work for the Veterans Administration and I see this day in and day out. Now if you're one of the VERY FEW that honestly has a disability related to faithful service and you were a real soldier then I would weed out all the low lifes - so you could really stand out for who you are.

SO HANDBALLER - From my perspective (and from daily life experience) I know the overwhelmingly majority of those getting money from the VA System - in no way shape or form merit it.

 

[budnipper1]

:embarrest:

View attachment 5974

 

[Steadygain]

World Market Tournament Update

Steady went in 100% S Fund and found Greg made the same move.
But Greg said he was just kidding and he actually went C Fund (which was disclosed after Steady lavished him with all kinds of wonderful attention). Greg then resigned from the game.

Corepuncher, 350z, and Windhunter also went in - which prompted some of the bigger names to the Board - including:
ContraianJeff
Poolman
Uptrend

Steady was serverely wounded in his first day of battle
The next day the BEAR was wounded with 350z and Windhunter's help - prompting the TOP WINNERS in the game.
Yesterday the BEAR Recovered and BEAT everyone down
Now Poolman and Uptrend have joined the ranks.


Today has started with 350z and Poolman joining Steady in the S Fund at 100% - while most of the others also went 100% with a different plan......

Stay tuned to our exclusive coverage of
The World Market Tournament ​

 

[Steadygain]

The World Market Tournament ​

Setting:
The audience was starting to buzz a little as the plays got underway. The door opened and everyone was quiet - all eyes fell on Mojo as he quietly and confidently went to the Table and placed 100% in S Fund.

First Commentator: 'Wow did you see that?! F Fund is going higher and that sure does not look good for stocks. And at the moment you'd least expect it the Top Rank walks in and put 100% in S."

Second Commentator: "Something must be going on that's not obvious to everyone else. What could these guys possibly know that the rest of the world is missing? How is it these guys can boldly go after the Most Powerful BEAR we've seen in ages...destruction going on everywhere... all over the globe...and in the middle of all that THE WORLD MARKET TOURNAMENT TAKES PLACE. I would think these guys are pretty scared."

First Commentator: "These guys are not driven by FEAR - they are driven by confidence and determination. They are NOT the type to go in one day and out the next. It's a huge battle with these guys and the last one out plans to take the biggest winnings".

Second Commentator: We're going to break for a LIVE UPDATE with Steadygain.

Interviewer: "How are you feeling about your position in S Fund"

Steadygain: "I'm feeling better and better about it so I'll hang on for awhile. I went in fully ready - took a beating - then came out winning - but now have been knocked to my lowest point.

Interviewer: "Are you scared Steady"?

Steadygain: "Yesterday was a disappointment and I began to second guess myself - but when you see the others coming in it builds your confidence - so right now I'm feeling pretty good."

Interviewer: "So you are in to win"

Steadygain: "I'm always in to win - always - so I'll hold on and we'll see what next week brings".

First Commentator: 'And that wraps up our coverage of the WORLD MARKET TOURNAMENT.

 

[WIND_HUNTER]

And Wind Hunter leans back in his chair and pops his knuckles and says,

" Bring it Baby"....:nuts:

 

[Steadygain]

And Wind Hunter leans back in his chair and pops his knuckles and says,

" Bring it Baby"....:nuts:

RIGHT ON ! Man

What's all the more amazing is - I increasingly believe that next week we'll show the ultimate example to the MB

THAT YOU GOT TO BE IN - TO WIN

 

[Steadygain]

Well have a GREAT WEEKEND everyone and enjoy the outdoors.

Lady, it's been a good while since I said hi to you - I hope things are going well - in fact I hope they're going fantastic. :cheesy:


Next week is the BIG WEEK - as all gathered around the Table boldly go forward anticipating WONDERFUL GAINS

BUT they know there's always that chance

Anyway - look at Nnuut's pup if you need a break and just enjoy being alive and all you have

 

[Birchtree]

Financial markets do not require bright sunshiny news to change tone and emotional feel, they simply require circumstances at any time to get less bad. By the time fundamental circumstances are actually good, the best of cyclical market moves may indeed be behind investors. Hold the line and keep looking forward.

 

[Steadygain]

Financial markets do not require bright sunshiny news to change tone and emotional feel, they simply require circumstances at any time to get less bad. By the time fundamental circumstances are actually good, the best of cyclical market moves may indeed be behind investors. Hold the line and keep looking forward.

I love ya Birch - thanks for being there

Birch - you surely realize that most of these guys are most thinking getting loans on their TSP accounts - or selling out to put in a trading system they can use immediately and whenever they want - and most certainly doing everything possible to avoid LOSS (which is why most are so far down - because they keep jumping in and out and letting their emotions take control)

Let me say breifly I am NOT INSULTING the general MB

This is like a private phone call to Birch only

Well anyway - you and I aren't even remotely thinking of touching one penny of the TSP for years to come. So we are honestly a very small number and very few think like us - LONG TERM and be able to totally blow off the present.

BUT - I agree with you that the number of shares is absolutely the bottom line. Here I'd ask you to consider the S Fund shares I just purchased. I was ahead of everything Birch - so I had a whole lot more to spend when I did buy as opposed to DCAing all the way down. Neither one of us can be damaged when you consider our total assets - but think about it

 

[Birchtree]

I would certainly have access to more shares in the C fund had I gotten out at $17.54 - perhaps I'll get another chance in the future. There is a Kress 40 year and a 60 year cycle that commences in 2011-2012 which should provide a hard down phase in the middle of the next bull market - that could provide a nice opportunity to swing trade a little. I just have to remember they are due. Future volume will tell us if buyers are now willing to take a stake here and support these levels. I suspect they are ready to reenter the markets - especially the hedge funds. They created all the volatility of the VIX at 80 when they were doing their involuntary panic selling - they may now do the reverse getting back in and driving the VIX below 20.

 

[alevin]

I would certainly have access to more shares in the C fund had I gotten out at $17.54 - perhaps I'll get another chance in the future. There is a Kress 40 year and a 60 year cycle that commences in 2011-2012 which should provide a hard down phase in the middle of the next bull market - that could provide a nice opportunity to swing trade a little. I just have to remember they are due.

Ah Birch, I hope you will get another chance, and I'll be watching the 40 and 60 with you come 2011-2012, I do love western swing dancing, I guess it comes naturally to do the same with my TSP.

 

[Rod]

Let me say breifly I am NOT INSULTING the general MB

This is like a private phone call to Birch only

Then perhaps you should have PM'd Dennis to prevent anyone from being insulted by your comments... if you were concerned about that.

BTW, the vast majority of folks who are down 20% or more are down because they have been holding their positions from 2008, and not "jumping in and out... letting their emotions take control" like you accuse them of doing. I believe that is something Dennis would be proud of... holding their positions.

 

[James48843]

I would certainly have access to more shares in the C fund had I gotten out at $17.54 - perhaps I'll get another chance in the future..

Now I KNOW we must be near capitulation.

I've never heard Birch talk about the possibility of selling.

Perhaps THAT is the great signal we all are waiting for....

(By the way- I am withering in pain myself, having stayed in all the last month .....)

 

[ChemEng]

BTW, the vast majority of folks who are down 20% or more are down because they have been holding their positions from 2008, and not "jumping in and out... letting their emotions take control" like you accuse them of doing. I believe that is something Dennis would be proud of... holding their positions.

Guilty.

(Countdown until Birch rubs it in starts in 10--9--8...)

 

[Steadygain]

Then perhaps you should have PM'd Dennis to prevent anyone from being insulted by your comments... if you were concerned about that.

BTW, the vast majority of folks who are down 20% or more are down because they have been holding their positions from 2008, and not "jumping in and out... letting their emotions take control" like you accuse them of doing. I believe that is something Dennis would be proud of... holding their positions.

Perhaps I should have my friend.. I guess you're right.

I would a thousand times rather be an open book than live a secret life in the PM world. I've lost myself there in the past and have no intention of doing it again.

As for the 'jumping and in and out...and letting their emotions take control' - I meant MAINLY those who are ready to cash out their TSP accounts in favor of unrestricted daily trading OR TRADING that is heavily based on 'Emotions' - and not sound investing.

For BIRCH - and to all those who are BUY & HOLDERS - they have a very sound plan of DCAing and acculating more and more funds. Emotion is largely removed from investment strategy and therefore they don't deal with the 'endless churning stomach'.

For those who have remained in G Fund (and are increasingly approaching the TOP positions) the same principal of B&H applies but here we have guaranteed CAPITAL Preservation day after day and week after week.

My message to Birch was a reflection of the rest of US - with ME as the Primary Example. We go in and out of the Markets - hoping to seize weakness and grab gains - THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH EXTREMELY HIGH EMOTIONS - that either bring a sense of Victory or a Humbling Defeat.

I simply feel it is more advantageous to LEAN towards Safety when the Economy is TANKING and the Markets are progressively going down. I (and many others have a stop point) - to minimize the loss.

Thanks for your comment Rod - as the more I have a chance to elaborate my true inner feelings and thoughts - the more overwhelmingly everyone will know I meant nothing offensive.

 

[Steadygain]

Now I KNOW we must be near capitulation.

I've never heard Birch talk about the possibility of selling.

Perhaps THAT is the great signal we all are waiting for....

(By the way- I am withering in pain myself, having stayed in all the last month .....)

I know your PAIN very well and lived it last year MORE than anyone presently on the AT. Or at least my loss was greater - but there is no way I could truely know if my pain was greater.

My point about asking Birch to think about it - is because I feel closer to Birch than almost anyone else. So only in the spirit of true friendship and 'brotherhood' - I believe he could still maintain his bottom line belief of 'MORE SHARES' by gaining Capital during long recessions and buying at the Bottom.

But each of us has to do what feels the best for us and what makes the most sense. We all have our level of risk - and we all face the reality of retirement years in either comfort or pain. Birch is a very rare exception; for many the TSP is the source of what will sustain them - and that's a very hard pill to swallow.

I'm sorry for you my friend and I could easily be heading way down this comming week. When I go beyond a certain point I'll probably be too embarassed to say anything more.

I call it the Silence of the Lamb - and maybe the MB needs that way more than me. But I'll try to be more sensitive in how I word myself.

Thank you for your comments - when others are hurt or bothered by the things I say then I make a point of 'being a better person' - so you are making me a better person.

The overwhelmingly feedback I've gotten has been very positive so I'm glad for the good.

 

[Steadygain]

Guilty.

(Countdown until Birch rubs it in starts in 10--9--8...)

Please know my previous messages today - equally apply to you.

My message to Birch - is the exact same message I would say to you - for you like Birch are a Buy and Holder and have consistently DCAed throughout the year.

You DO NOT appear to be ready to sell your TSP account to put that money in a private trading system where you will jump in and out on a daily basis. You appear to be using your account as a LONG TERM INVESTMENT - and in that regard I applaud you.

In my heart of hearts - my message to Birch was thinking of the TSP as a long term investment for years down the line WHICH makes a lot more sense than thinking of the here and now and cashing the account in for other purposes - many of which will do more damage than good.

You strike me very much as a LONG TERM PLAYER - so I would put you right there with Birch.

 

[Steadygain]

I would certainly have access to more shares in the C fund had I gotten out at $17.54 - perhaps I'll get another chance in the future. There is a Kress 40 year and a 60 year cycle that commences in 2011-2012 which should provide a hard down phase in the middle of the next bull market - that could provide a nice opportunity to swing trade a little. I just have to remember they are due. Future volume will tell us if buyers are now willing to take a stake here and support these levels. I suspect they are ready to reenter the markets - especially the hedge funds. They created all the volatility of the VIX at 80 when they were doing their involuntary panic selling - they may now do the reverse getting back in and driving the VIX below 20.

Ah Birch, I hope you will get another chance, and I'll be watching the 40 and 60 with you come 2011-2012, I do love western swing dancing, I guess it comes naturally to do the same with my TSP.

I think it's pretty obvious that I love both of you and deeply regard you as a bother and sister.

Your plans are working extremely well for each of you and both of you are very comfortable with your positions. I feel very at peace with the way you've planned for your Retirement and the manner in which each of you live and regard one another.

PEACE and GOOD WILL

 

[Steadygain]

I love ya Birch - thanks for being there

Just finished a big project on the house.

I was bothered about something and Birch always seems to be there when I'm annoyed or bothered about something SO THAT IS WHAT I MEANT HERE.


Birch - you surely realize that most of these guys are most thinking getting loans on their TSP accounts - or selling out to put in a trading system they can use immediately and whenever they want - and most certainly doing everything possible to avoid LOSS (which is why most are so far down - because they keep jumping in and out and letting their emotions take control)

REREADING THIS - IT SOUNDS TERRIBLE AND I'M SORRY

What I meant to convery is Birch - regardless of our strategy of controling the TSP (I try to preserve loss and go in for potiential gains - where you DCA - but both of us ultimately strive to get as many shares in our own way)

I can not understand how so many are ready to cash in their TSP account in order to actively trade on a daily basis. Those who are trading most frequently are by far those who have lost the most and hense by trading more on a daily basis - week after week - they are way more likely to lose than to win.

THIS DOES NOT REFLECT MOST PEOPLE ON THE MESSAGE BOARD AND I SHOULD HAVE REREAD THE MESSAGE BEFORE I SENT IT.

My emphasis to Birch is that We both see the TSP as a long term retirement investment and have no intention of taking one penny of it until years from now. So I was mainly distinguishing the Long Term Investors from those who think only short term and what they can have on hand right now.


Let me say breifly I am NOT INSULTING the general MB

This is like a private phone call to Birch only

Here I realized that I'm probably doing the worse job possible of communicating what I'm really feeling - and know beyond the shadow of any doubt that only someone very close to me - someone who is honestly a brother to me - would be able to pick up on what I just can't seem to get out in the few seconds I had to write.

SO I DID REALIZE THAT IT PROBABLY SOUNDS TERRIBLE AND IF YOU ARE NOT BIRCH - PLEASE DON'T BE OFFENDED BECAUSE I KNOW WHAT I MEAN (AND HOPEFULLY HE DOES) BUT MANY COULD EASILY BE INSULTED.


Well anyway - you and I aren't even remotely thinking of touching one penny of the TSP for years to come. So we are honestly a very small number and very few think like us - LONG TERM and be able to totally blow off the present.

Once again I believe the overwhelming MB does think of their TSP as a long term investment and what I said sounds terrible.

Birch and I are not a small number - I simply realized that in the long run we have a lot in common and even though we go at the TSP totally different we are very long term thinking.

So as I wrote my terribly horrible message the main thing that was standing out to me is the difference between having no thought of using your TSP money for years to come - and doing everything possible to take every penny here and now and wipe out the account.


BUT - I agree with you that the number of shares is absolutely the bottom line. Here I'd ask you to consider the S Fund shares I just purchased. I was ahead of everything Birch - so I had a whole lot more to spend when I did buy as opposed to DCAing all the way down. Neither one of us can be damaged when you consider our total assets - but think about it

I admire Birch immensely - and love him and respect him. So this message was truely meant to be deeply personal and I realize in retrospect I should have PM'd him - but that's just not me and I usually have no problem throwing everything out on the open board. So during years when the Markets go down over 30% and the next year they are down 20% in just the first 2 months - I am hoping he will at least consider a different strategy.

I think the biggest problem with me is I'm on the MB way too much
and frequently airing my feelings and just letting everything go. So I'm sorry for hurting so many feelings and being such an annoyance. It was all meant to be 'a break' but it really only serves that purpose for someone like me - by backing off and not getting too involved.

For me the biggest reward was the PM world - and for awhile it was everything I could have hoped for and more. When I gave that up I became way too wrapped up in the MB at large. It seemed to me that when I went to the Table to place my bets that Poolman, 350z, Windhunter, CP, Mojo, Kar Crazy, and all the others were standing next to me and that's basically all I saw.

So I'm sorry everyone - I guess I got a little too deep...