Squalebear's Account Talk

[Guest2]

The market's latest frame of mind seems reminiscent of a passage from Emily Dickinson's poem "After Great Pain a Formal Feeling Comes".

This is the Hour of Lead -
Remembered, if outlived,
As Freezing persons recollect the Snow -
First - Chill - then Stupor - then
the letting go.

The words from the omnificent Emily Dickinson are indeed apropos at the
time of your post. However, I feel that given the hour, Emily describes
our current market condition better when she said; "Hope is the thing
with feathers, that perches in the soul, and sings the tune without
words, and never stops at all."

Thats right Birch, the futures fill my soul with hope.
I hear them singing a tune tune without words and
one can only pray they will never stop going up.

Hells Bells, I'll settle for 4:00pm (4:20pm for the IFunders). :toung:

 

[Guest2]

Global Stocks: A Good Start
Stocks in overseas markets opened higher following action by
European governments. U.S. futures point up.

World Rolling Out Emergency Financial Moves
U.K., Germany, France, Australia, Gulf nations all reported preparing
measures.

Veteran Advisers Think It Will Pass ... Eventually
Never seen anything like it? Neither have five octogenarian advisers
but they say it too will pass. Mostly. Eventually.

U.S. authorities seek to clarify mark-to-market rules

Fed approves Wells Fargo purchase of Wachovia !

 

[Guest2]

Good Morning Members. As you wipe the sleep from your eyes and
check what the Futures market might show for todays trade, you'll see
nothing but green. The S&P 500 Futures topped off at +6.99% around
3:00am or so. They have come off their highs since then, but its a great
start to a possible record day. So go make some coffee, heck, go buy a
Red Bull because you won't want to miss a second. Good Luck to all who
are in the Market Today. The TSP Website is closed for Colombus Day.
But that does not mean your money isn't working hard for you today.
It's Tuesday's Prices which will be a combination of todays results and
tomorrows. You have until Tuesday 12 noon to make a IFT which will be
in affect during Wednesday's Trading. I'll be home in about an hour and a
half, coffee in hand, listening to Bloomberg and reading your thoughts.

 

[airlift]

Squalebear,

Good Luck to you and all. It seems a good act of faith in our institutions. Even though the economy will still slow down, this concerted action could be the timely medicine in order to avoid a full-blown depression. At least I take comfort from knowing that significant action is in the making. 12% and Corepuncher (CP) seem to be spot on. The rally seems to have begun; but Corepuncher earlier, and this morning on CNBC's Worlwide Exchange are calling for prudence and wise nibbling. CP wrote earlier that approaching 1100 in the SPX could be a good point to recover and take some off the table. An analyst at CNBC a while ago, speculated that a even 15% rally to the upside could happen, but called for investors/traders to be nimble. Economic realities will temper the exhilaration! I am still hoping and very happy to be able to recover some of the extreme losses. Best wishes.

 

[nasa1974]

SB,

My Jedi Master I just want to wish you a pleasant Columbus Day. Hope you have the day off. I am away from my government job but the TO DO list is longer than my arm. Let's hope the next couple of days is good for all of us in the market. I can only hope to recover back to where I was in mid-August.

 

[Guest2]

Airlift, thank you for the well wishes. I totaly agree that the economy will
effect the Market. But first, we must recover from the Fear Selling and
steal every penny we can. I don't know how much or for how long stocks
will look cheap enough to ignore the Economic Outlook, but that time will
come. First things first. I'm worried about another rollercoaster ride based
on the Bond Market being closed and light volume. If Libor takes a hit
tonight, then we could see an extention of today, come Tuesday. I'm in
at 40% and my return hit +2% earlier. But its way too early to tell right now.
Good Luck To You As Well !


Nasa, The To-Do List, coupled with a Honey-Do List can be a killer!:toung:
Pace yourself, set priorities and buy lots of alcohol. Baccardi 151%
comes to mind ! :nuts: Don't lose total sight of the Market, it could be as
short lived as my brothers marriage's ! :embarrest: Lets hope it last's a week !

 

[Guest2]

The Following members have invested 100% into a Fund
which is currently up +8.31% in todays trading !
I don't want to jinx anyone, so I'll simply say;​

WOW !​

Fuzzduzz,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Buda
CrazyHenry,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Steadygain
Vectorman,,,,,,,,,,,,,,ChemEng
Fedgolfer,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Nightlight
Griffin,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Pyriel
Pezfallout,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Gilligan
Gucci,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Truehonest
Khunk​

I'll save the Congratulations for the closing bell !​

 

[alevin]

If anyone wants a continued Donkey policy of affirmatve action in education, affirmative action in employment, affirmative action in mortages, affirmative action in home ownership, then the current social engineering as practiced today you need to vote for Nobama. He will see to it that they continue. I won't get started on multiculturalism but it does seek to reduce standards and aspiration - the silent majority of America will do the right thing. One solution that might help is to change the laws and allow more than one family per domicile. That way five families could pool their welfare checks and meet their obligations to pay the mortage on the five bedroom house.

Birch, with housing prices the way they were in some markets, it wasn't the welfare families that were pooling their funds to obtain affordable housing. I personally know a young responsible Republican-to-the-core TV producer who cost-shared a $1MM house with her equally well-employed boyfriend and another 2 well-employed couples, so they could have a decent place to live. $1mm represented a decent place to live at that point several years ago.

 

[alevin]

Based on my lack of experience and knowledge of the particulars which are associated between and differ from the EFA and MSCI EAFE Index, I am not qualified to give you the 100% etched in stone answer you deserve. But as I said earlier, I did my best. I only wish I could have done more !

SB, thanks for at least visiting the subject with me. I always figure 2 heads are better than one, that's why we're all here. And you have one of the better heads around here. However, nobody expects you to do the impossible! Now if Kryptonite affected you, it'd be another story.

 

[Guest2]

The Following members have invested 100% into a Fund

which is currently up +8.31% in todays trading !
I don't want to jinx anyone, so I'll simply say;​

WOW !​

Fuzzduzz,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Buda
CrazyHenry,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Steadygain
Vectorman,,,,,,,,,,,,,,ChemEng
Fedgolfer,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Nightlight
Griffin,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Pyriel
Pezfallout,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Gilligan
Gucci,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Truehonest
Khunk​

I'll save the Congratulations for the closing bell !​

Glad I Waited Until Now !
Congratulations!​

 

[Guest2]

SB, thanks for at least visiting the subject with me. I always figure 2 heads are better than one, that's why we're all here. And you have one of the better heads around here. However, nobody expects you to do the impossible! Now if Kryptonite affected you, it'd be another story.

A person once told me, "we all reach a level of our own
incompetance". I reached mine. But somehow, you've
made me feel good about it. For that, I thank you !

 

[Birchtree]

That's the Peter Principle. I made 29 stock buys today and I'm confident about tommorow. I want to do another buy program. If we have a little give back that would be excellent, however I believe we'll see substantial follow through from today. Sometimes you just have to chase the train.

 

[Guest2]

THE TSP SITE WAS CLOSED FOR COLOMBUS DAY AND SO, THE TSP'S
YTD & MTD RETURNS ARE ESTIMATED TO REFLECT A GENERALIZED
RETURN BASED ON THEIR CORRESPONDING ETF'S & INDEXES. THE
BOND FUND IS ANOTHER STORY. IT OUTPERFORMED THE AGG BY
6.44% ON FRIDAY. I'M GONNA TAKE A SHOT AND GUESS-TAMATE
IT WILL PAYBACK AN EQUAL AMOUNT IN MY FIGURES. ACCURACY
WILL RETURN AFTER TUESDAY'S TSP PRICE UPDATE;

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX= -31.67%.....C=...-30.46%....-14.59% (my figures)
DW.= -31.32%.....S=.. -29.87%....
EFA= -37.46%......I=...-35.70%...
AGG= -09.24%.....F=...-02.68%...
...........................G=...+03.00%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX= -13.98%.....C=...-13.88%....-09.42%(my figures)
DW.= -16.33%.....S=.. -16.44%....
EFA= -12.81%.....I=....-10.93%...
AGG= -06.87%.....F=...-03.49%...
............................G=..+00.13%..

 

[Guest2]

THE TSP SITE WAS CLOSED FOR COLOMBUS DAY AND SO, MY O/D
TRACKER RETURNS ARE ESTIMATED TO REFLECT A GENERALIZED
RETURN BASED ON THEIR CORRESPONDING ETF'S AND INDEX'S.
ACCURACY WILL RETURN AFTER TUESDAY'S TSP PRICE UPDATE;


YTD O/D FOR ALL TSP FUNDS

(C) Fund vs. the SPX = 0.1973 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.71%
(S) Fund vs. DWCPF. = 0.2993 TSP Cent Overpayment or +2.16%
(I). Fund vs. the EFA = 0.3431 TSP Cent Overpayment or+2.15%

DAILY (I) FUND VS. EFA O/D TRACKING RESULTS:

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(09/15/08) +0.8638% -0.3323 tsp cents
(09/16/08) -0.2278% -0.2873 tsp cents
(09/17/08) +0.8268% -0.4262 tsp cents
(09/18/08) -2.0361% -0.0642 tsp cents
(09/19/08) -0.4960%+0.0283 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(09/22/08)+2.5382% -0.4628 tsp cents
(09/23/08) -0.8997% -0.2822 tsp cents
(09/24/08) -0.2518% -0.2347 tsp cents
(09/25/08) -0.5076% -0.1412 tsp cents
(09/26/08) +0.3903% -0.2149 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(09/29/08)+2.3205% -0.6001 tsp cents
(09/30/08) -3.4591%+0.0025 tsp cents
(10/01/08) -0.7365% -0.1291 tsp cents
(10/02/08) -0.0580% -0.1135 tsp cents
(10/03/08)+0.6851% -0.2312 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/06/08) -0.1022% -0.2014 tsp cents
(10/07/08)+1.0228% -0.3531 tsp cents
(10/08/08) -1.3004% -0.1455 tsp cents
(10/09/08)+1.1848% -0.3078 tsp cents
(10/10/08) -0.6113% -0.2109 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/13/08) +0.6117% -0.3431 tsp cents (TSP CLOSED)

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .6000 thru -.4000 High Overpayment (Payback Past Due)
- .4000 thru -.3000 Elavated Overpayment, (Payback Immanent)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Medium Overpayment (Flip A Coin)
- .2000 thru -.1000 Low Overpayment, (Slightly Over Goal)
- .1000 thru -.0000 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Lower)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
---------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Guest2]

Good Morning,

Today is showing all the signs of a continuation of yesterdays remarkable
Rally. Momentum is on the upside. Investors are not worried about the
downside of the Global Economy yet. But it will come and the big question
looms; How long do we have before the Global/US Economic Realities rear
their ugly head and investors take notice ?

My Gut Tells Me;
It won't be on 10/14/08 Tuesday - 100% Confidence.
It won't be on 10/15/08 Wednesday - 60% Confidence.
It won't be on 10/16/08 Thursday - 25% Confidence.
It won't be on 10/17/08 Friday - 5% Confidence.

Based on the above, I'm feeling fairly safe to leave (if not add) to my
current position in the (C) and (S) Funds. Even if they are rebalance
type additions of less then 1%, I'm thinking today and tomorrow should
be profitable. Come Wednesday before noon, I'm leaning on a partial
move back to the (G) Fund. Today, my balances reflect the following percentages;

19.77%(C)
20.22%(S)
60.01%(G)

Today, (depending on the Market around 11:30am and my gut) I'm leaning
towards increasing my risk in the Funds by making a IFT as follows;

20.00%(C)
21.00%(S)
59.00%(G)

Come Wednesday, (depending on the Market around 11:30am and my gut)
I'm leaning towards decreasing my risk by making a IFT as follows;

15.00%(C)
15.00%(S)
70.00%(G)

And Friday;

10.00%(C)
10.00%(S)
80.00%(G)

The belief in selling into any rally, holds a strong grip on me right now. Of
coarse, this plan is subject to change should I learn of something new or
see something that tells me otherwise. But these are my thoughts as of
now and I'd be interested in anyone's opinion concerning the above.

 

[Guest2]

Ooops ! Share price and Balances are not updated due to the Holiday.
The post just below states that I was going to do a IFT today. If I did,
it would actually take money out of the risk funds for tomorrow, so I
cancelled it. My goals remain the same.

 

[Guest2]

I'll be back, on and off, throughout the day.
I wish everyone the best of returns for today ! ​

 

[DakotaKid]

with yesterday's gains...and the S&P zeroing on breaking even for noon....I'm probably going to DCA my 100 C back to the G (wish I could go F). Probably go around 50%. I'm between that and anywhere up to 100% G. Man I hate this noon deadline.

Your theory looks good, but I'm not positive this rally will last a couple of days. And I have a hard time scoffing at a net gain of about 2% after this wild swing the last week. (assuming a zero day today):notrust:

 

[Guest2]

with yesterday's gains...and the S&P zeroing on breaking even for noon....I'm probably going to DCA my 100 C back to the G (wish I could go F). Probably go around 50%. I'm between that and anywhere up to 100% G. Man I hate this noon deadline.

Your theory looks good, but I'm not positive this rally will last a couple of days. And I have a hard time scoffing at a net gain of about 2% after this wild swing the last week. (assuming a zero day today):notrust:

DK, its more of a short term plan, then a theory. Thanks for sharing your
thoughts about your possible moves. The deadline has been hurting TSP
participants for many years. We share in your dismay ! Today looks to be
a minor adjustment down. We can only hope it won't continue as we have
a long way to climb. Best of luck tomorrow !

 

[Steadygain]

Squalebear,
Hello my sweet little brother.

I just noticed you're a Planet - wow that is cool.


Who needs Pleuto when we've got you around.

Well have a good night.