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Squalebear's Account Talk
- Thread starter Guest2
- Start date
Buster
Well-known member
Buster
Well-known member
JTH
Well-known member
Nice charts SQ. It may turn out to be a good call to jump in today. But I wouldn't know, I was too busy this morning to watch the markets so I'm staying in G. My other reason for not jumping in is I forgot my password for the tracker, and I don't have access to my mail account from here. :toung:
Was it fate? Who knows... Good luck everyone
Thanks JTH, the website I visit from time to time is updated nightly
and you might find it useful as you can find Daily, Weekly, Monthly
and Best Fund results for the TSP;
http://tspmoney.com/tspm_tool.php?toolname=historical_chart_tool
http://tspmoney.com/tspm_tool.php?toolname=graph_tool
Right after I entered a post telling everyone that I was NOT doing a
IFT, Oil started to drop like a bad habit. All of a sudden, I started to
feel that shorts were covering. I thought it might be a catalyst to
drive the market up. There was also some strong resistance at the
1250 mark within the S&P500 and that everyone would eventualy
figure out the Tropical Storm in the Gulf would be harmless and all
evacuations would be cancelled. Even though I believe we can still
see 1230's in the S&P, I also believe that the upside is 1320. If we
do see the 1230's hit again, I'll buy more (C) as I don't think we'll
see the 1100's this year. :worried:
No, I didn't feel it was necessary to check with L2R ..
I always check with higher authority, its a smart business practice!
malyla
Active member
I agree. Next year is the year everyone should be ready to cover their heads just in case (when) the window shatters. Still -- be careful for the next two months -- whipsaw alley is ahead.
GL
Hit & Run Malyla, Hit & Run. Caution is well advised and accepted.
Many thanks. Maybe the wording in the FED statement won't hurt
too badly tomarrow. Good Luck to all of us.
The Fund Managers paid back a penny of the (I) Funds' current debt.
The O/D Tracker remains within the "Holy Cow" area. I've seen more
then .25 tsp cents get paid back at one time (in one day) when we
were on the "Deficit" side.
With that all said, I have some concerns I wish to address. But because
of the legnth of this concern, I'll post it in a seperate entry. I need to do
a little more research before that happens. To ensure no one jumps to any
conclusions, it concerns the difference between the (I)Fund, EFA and the
MSCI EAFE Index and my frustration over accuracy and the unknown.
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/14/08) +0.397% -0.4372 tsp cents
(7/15/08) - 0.508% -0.3229 tsp cents
(7/16/08) -0.3206%-0.2605 tsp cents
(7/17/08) -0.2940%-0.2013 tsp cents
(7/18/08) -0.2422%-0.1504 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/21/08) +0.7334%-0.3109 tsp cents
(7/22/08) -0.7174%-0.1553 tsp cents
(7/23/08) +0.5982%-0.2868 tsp cents
(7/24/08) +0.4519%-0.3797 tsp cents
(7/25/08) -0.5288%-0.2868 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/28/08) +0.4966% -0.3660 tsp cents
(7/29/08) -0.3038% -0.3039 tsp cents
(7/30/08) +0.2671% -0.3650 tsp cents
(7/31/08) +0.1610% -0.3266 tsp cents
(8/01/08) +0.4469% -0.4172 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/04/08) -0.0408% -0.4046 tsp cents
THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .9999 thru -.4000 Holy Cow !
- .4000 thru -.3000 High Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Meduim Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .2000 thru -.1000 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met)
-.1000 thru-.0000 (Not Seen For Over 2 Months)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Lower)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
---------------------------------------------------------------------
The O/D Tracker remains within the "Holy Cow" area. I've seen more
then .25 tsp cents get paid back at one time (in one day) when we
were on the "Deficit" side.
With that all said, I have some concerns I wish to address. But because
of the legnth of this concern, I'll post it in a seperate entry. I need to do
a little more research before that happens. To ensure no one jumps to any
conclusions, it concerns the difference between the (I)Fund, EFA and the
MSCI EAFE Index and my frustration over accuracy and the unknown.
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/14/08) +0.397% -0.4372 tsp cents
(7/15/08) - 0.508% -0.3229 tsp cents
(7/16/08) -0.3206%-0.2605 tsp cents
(7/17/08) -0.2940%-0.2013 tsp cents
(7/18/08) -0.2422%-0.1504 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/21/08) +0.7334%-0.3109 tsp cents
(7/22/08) -0.7174%-0.1553 tsp cents
(7/23/08) +0.5982%-0.2868 tsp cents
(7/24/08) +0.4519%-0.3797 tsp cents
(7/25/08) -0.5288%-0.2868 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/28/08) +0.4966% -0.3660 tsp cents
(7/29/08) -0.3038% -0.3039 tsp cents
(7/30/08) +0.2671% -0.3650 tsp cents
(7/31/08) +0.1610% -0.3266 tsp cents
(8/01/08) +0.4469% -0.4172 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/04/08) -0.0408% -0.4046 tsp cents
THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .9999 thru -.4000 Holy Cow !
- .4000 thru -.3000 High Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Meduim Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .2000 thru -.1000 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met)
-.1000 thru-.0000 (Not Seen For Over 2 Months)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Lower)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
---------------------------------------------------------------------
My Previously Mentioned Concern:
We all know that the MSCI EAFE Index is what the (I) Fund returns aspire to refect on a YTD basis. I could never find a way to track the EAFE during Market Hours. I believe thats why we all look to the iShares EFA to see how (estimated) well the fund is doing during trading hours. Being a EFT type purchase, the EFA has its own unique fees and possible dividends it pays to its shareholders. The TSP also has its own unique fees which will differ from the EFA. Since 2003, the YTD (I) Fund returns have never been more then .75% when compared to the EAFE. Right now, the YTD difference between the EFA and (I) Fund stands at +1.94% which falls in the "Holy Cow" area. I've been thinking that the difference would eventually work its way down to reflect one another (by at least 1.2%). But the unknown fees and alike may have changed everything since late June and may have left the utilization of the EFA inaccurate. Another fact which has lead me to believe that the EFA is NOT the comparison of choice is documented on the TSP Website itself. While I was showing a +1.97% difference between the EFA and (I)Fund, the TSP site shows a small difference between the EAFE and (I)Fund. (+0.51%). Obviously, my tracking would be more accurate if I could track the MSCI EAFE Index without incurring a charge, but thats doesn't appear to be possible.
The bottom line: The recent changes I've been making within the O/D Tracker has been a slow and frustrating process. Still, the need for more tweeks are becoming obvious to me. Just when I think that I've found the possible solution to this (June) new reality, I fear that Barclays will find yet another need to change it all again. So know this, the figures that I post are accurate per se, but my OCD isn't satisfied with the information at hand and I don't want to mislead members into believing that I have anything more then I do. :embarrest:
http://www.tsp.gov/rates/returns-tsp.html
We all know that the MSCI EAFE Index is what the (I) Fund returns aspire to refect on a YTD basis. I could never find a way to track the EAFE during Market Hours. I believe thats why we all look to the iShares EFA to see how (estimated) well the fund is doing during trading hours. Being a EFT type purchase, the EFA has its own unique fees and possible dividends it pays to its shareholders. The TSP also has its own unique fees which will differ from the EFA. Since 2003, the YTD (I) Fund returns have never been more then .75% when compared to the EAFE. Right now, the YTD difference between the EFA and (I) Fund stands at +1.94% which falls in the "Holy Cow" area. I've been thinking that the difference would eventually work its way down to reflect one another (by at least 1.2%). But the unknown fees and alike may have changed everything since late June and may have left the utilization of the EFA inaccurate. Another fact which has lead me to believe that the EFA is NOT the comparison of choice is documented on the TSP Website itself. While I was showing a +1.97% difference between the EFA and (I)Fund, the TSP site shows a small difference between the EAFE and (I)Fund. (+0.51%). Obviously, my tracking would be more accurate if I could track the MSCI EAFE Index without incurring a charge, but thats doesn't appear to be possible.
The bottom line: The recent changes I've been making within the O/D Tracker has been a slow and frustrating process. Still, the need for more tweeks are becoming obvious to me. Just when I think that I've found the possible solution to this (June) new reality, I fear that Barclays will find yet another need to change it all again. So know this, the figures that I post are accurate per se, but my OCD isn't satisfied with the information at hand and I don't want to mislead members into believing that I have anything more then I do. :embarrest:
http://www.tsp.gov/rates/returns-tsp.html
The ISM is the only Economic Report out today (besides the FED)
Big Picture
Non-Manufacturing ISM: Institute for Supply Management
formerly: Non-Manufacturing NAPM (National Association of Purchasing Managers)
The non-manufacturing ISM report is a national survey of purchasing managers which covers new orders, employment, inventories, supplier delivery times, prices, backlog orders, export orders, and import orders. Diffusion indexes are produced for each of these categories, with a reading over 50% indicating expansion relative to the prior month, and a sub-50% reading indicating contraction.
The index should be far more indicative of the broader economy given its inclusion of service-producing as well as good-producing sectors outside of manufacturing. However, the short history of the index dates to only July 1997 and doesn't provide the insight of a longer period inclusive of varied economic climates. The seasonal adjustment of the index didn't begin until January 2001 with only 3 of the 9 components seasonally adjusted as of April 2001. The lack of historical data and lack of a tight correlation to the non-manufacturing economy leaves the relatively poor "B-" rating compared to the "A-" rating of the well-respected manufacturing ISM index.
In Depth
The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report on Business is a newcomer not yet closely followed by the private sector.
Who and What It Surveys
The Non-Manufacturing ISM index (sometimes refered to as the ISM Service index) is the result of a monthly survey of over 370 companies. The survey queries respondents on a number of monthly indicators, including orders, employment, inventories, supplier delivery times, prices paid, order backlogs, export orders, and import orders. Respondents are asked to characterize each indicator as higher, lower, or unchanged for the month (or faster/slower in the case of delivery times). They are not asked for specific numbers - only a thumbs up or down.
Presenting the Numbers
Based on these responses, the ISM calculates diffusion indexes for each of the components. These diffusion indexes are calculated by adding the half of the percentage of respondents answering "unchanged" to the full percentage answering "higher" (or "slower" for deliveries). These diffusion indexes do not yield estimates of specific magnitudes of strength or weakness, but the more respondents who are indicating trends in the same direction - the better the chance that the magnitude of that move is larger.
A diffusion index of 50% is the theoretical breakeven mark - with readings above indicating strength and below indicating weakness. The total index is seasonally adjusted but only 3 of the 9 components are currently adjusted for seasonality. The total index is the result of a separate question regarding general business conditions (unlike the Manufacturing ISM which is calculated from some of the components). The business index is calculated using the same diffusion calculation used in the components then adjusted for seasonality.
Big Picture
- The ISM services index is not a major economic indicator. It is a survey that provides some general indications of trends in the services sector, but not much more. The index dipped surprisingly in January, but improved each month since then until a dip in June.
Non-Manufacturing ISM: Institute for Supply Management
formerly: Non-Manufacturing NAPM (National Association of Purchasing Managers)
- Importance (A-F): This release merits an improved B-.
- Source: Institute for Supply Management
- Release Time: 10:00 ET on the third business day of the month for the prior month.
- Raw Data Available At: http://www.napm.org.
The non-manufacturing ISM report is a national survey of purchasing managers which covers new orders, employment, inventories, supplier delivery times, prices, backlog orders, export orders, and import orders. Diffusion indexes are produced for each of these categories, with a reading over 50% indicating expansion relative to the prior month, and a sub-50% reading indicating contraction.
The index should be far more indicative of the broader economy given its inclusion of service-producing as well as good-producing sectors outside of manufacturing. However, the short history of the index dates to only July 1997 and doesn't provide the insight of a longer period inclusive of varied economic climates. The seasonal adjustment of the index didn't begin until January 2001 with only 3 of the 9 components seasonally adjusted as of April 2001. The lack of historical data and lack of a tight correlation to the non-manufacturing economy leaves the relatively poor "B-" rating compared to the "A-" rating of the well-respected manufacturing ISM index.
In Depth
The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report on Business is a newcomer not yet closely followed by the private sector.
Who and What It Surveys
The Non-Manufacturing ISM index (sometimes refered to as the ISM Service index) is the result of a monthly survey of over 370 companies. The survey queries respondents on a number of monthly indicators, including orders, employment, inventories, supplier delivery times, prices paid, order backlogs, export orders, and import orders. Respondents are asked to characterize each indicator as higher, lower, or unchanged for the month (or faster/slower in the case of delivery times). They are not asked for specific numbers - only a thumbs up or down.
Presenting the Numbers
Based on these responses, the ISM calculates diffusion indexes for each of the components. These diffusion indexes are calculated by adding the half of the percentage of respondents answering "unchanged" to the full percentage answering "higher" (or "slower" for deliveries). These diffusion indexes do not yield estimates of specific magnitudes of strength or weakness, but the more respondents who are indicating trends in the same direction - the better the chance that the magnitude of that move is larger.
A diffusion index of 50% is the theoretical breakeven mark - with readings above indicating strength and below indicating weakness. The total index is seasonally adjusted but only 3 of the 9 components are currently adjusted for seasonality. The total index is the result of a separate question regarding general business conditions (unlike the Manufacturing ISM which is calculated from some of the components). The business index is calculated using the same diffusion calculation used in the components then adjusted for seasonality.
JTH
Well-known member
I can certainly understand your frustration with the I fund. I've given up tracking it because it's too time consuming for me to track all the fundamentals. If it weren't for the I funders here, I wouldn't have a clue how it was doing, so most of my I-Fund opinions are based on what others here think.
Your work here has not gone unnoticed and it is appreciated. Every contribution helps fill in the big picture and it also helps us to keep Mr. Long and his dedicated employees accountable by knowing we are watching their every move...
Steady has been waiting for this day. I'm sure he'll be along when
his priorities have been accomplished. I'm certain he'll bless us with
something spiritual and deep. I know, we all look forward to it.
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