Todays -0.6135% payback of the overpayment was a significant
downward move. However, as many of the (I) Funder's already
know, its much less painful when it occurs on a Glorious Day like
today with a positive +1.92% gain under their belts. Tomarrow
holds three possible scenarios within the "flip-a-coin" area ;
#1- Lowering Debt. #2- The Debt Holds. #3- Debt Rises.
Each scenario will look different as determined by the Market
closing up or down. As seen today, paying back some debt and
having a strong move upward, isn't so bad. But to payoff some
debt when the Market moves down can be extremely painful. I'll
break it down for you;
(I) Fund Up Or Down Tomarrow:
Scenario #1 = Ouch (but better time to jump in)
Scenario #2 = Ahhh (give me every penny and hold)
Scenario #3 = Yippy (champagne, but reduce position)
I believe we are not going to see todays gains last all that long.
I see resistance being a little higher before a drop, but not that
much higher. So I'm content with my Hit&Run strategy. I doubled
up on the (C) and (S) today, in hopes for a little more follow thru.
I'm staying away from the (I) for various reason, including but not
limited to, the rising Dollar and the upcoming ECB announcement.
But I'm ready to cut and run (lock in gains) should the market
look positive to nuetral. If we see a reversal of yesterday's big
gains, it'll be hard, but it will extend my stay for yet another day.
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/14/08) +0.397% -0.4372 tsp cents
(7/15/08) - 0.508% -0.3229 tsp cents
(7/16/08) -0.3206%-0.2605 tsp cents
(7/17/08) -0.2940%-0.2013 tsp cents
(7/18/08) -0.2422%-0.1504 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/21/08) +0.7334%-0.3109 tsp cents
(7/22/08) -0.7174%-0.1553 tsp cents
(7/23/08) +0.5982%-0.2868 tsp cents
(7/24/08) +0.4519%-0.3797 tsp cents
(7/25/08) -0.5288%-0.2868 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/28/08) +0.4966% -0.3660 tsp cents
(7/29/08) -0.3038% -0.3039 tsp cents
(7/30/08) +0.2671% -0.3650 tsp cents
(7/31/08) +0.1610% -0.3266 tsp cents
(8/01/08) +0.4469% -0.4172 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/04/08) -0.0408% -0.4046 tsp cents
(8/05/08) -0.6135% -0.2821 tsp cents
THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .9999 thru -.4000 Holy Cow !
- .4000 thru -.3000 High Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Meduim Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .2000 thru -.1000 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met)
-.1000 thru-.0000 (Not Seen For Over 2 Months)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Lower)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
---------------------------------------------------------------------
downward move. However, as many of the (I) Funder's already
know, its much less painful when it occurs on a Glorious Day like
today with a positive +1.92% gain under their belts. Tomarrow
holds three possible scenarios within the "flip-a-coin" area ;
#1- Lowering Debt. #2- The Debt Holds. #3- Debt Rises.
Each scenario will look different as determined by the Market
closing up or down. As seen today, paying back some debt and
having a strong move upward, isn't so bad. But to payoff some
debt when the Market moves down can be extremely painful. I'll
break it down for you;
(I) Fund Up Or Down Tomarrow:
Scenario #1 = Ouch (but better time to jump in)
Scenario #2 = Ahhh (give me every penny and hold)
Scenario #3 = Yippy (champagne, but reduce position)
I believe we are not going to see todays gains last all that long.
I see resistance being a little higher before a drop, but not that
much higher. So I'm content with my Hit&Run strategy. I doubled
up on the (C) and (S) today, in hopes for a little more follow thru.
I'm staying away from the (I) for various reason, including but not
limited to, the rising Dollar and the upcoming ECB announcement.
But I'm ready to cut and run (lock in gains) should the market
look positive to nuetral. If we see a reversal of yesterday's big
gains, it'll be hard, but it will extend my stay for yet another day.
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/14/08) +0.397% -0.4372 tsp cents
(7/15/08) - 0.508% -0.3229 tsp cents
(7/16/08) -0.3206%-0.2605 tsp cents
(7/17/08) -0.2940%-0.2013 tsp cents
(7/18/08) -0.2422%-0.1504 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/21/08) +0.7334%-0.3109 tsp cents
(7/22/08) -0.7174%-0.1553 tsp cents
(7/23/08) +0.5982%-0.2868 tsp cents
(7/24/08) +0.4519%-0.3797 tsp cents
(7/25/08) -0.5288%-0.2868 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/28/08) +0.4966% -0.3660 tsp cents
(7/29/08) -0.3038% -0.3039 tsp cents
(7/30/08) +0.2671% -0.3650 tsp cents
(7/31/08) +0.1610% -0.3266 tsp cents
(8/01/08) +0.4469% -0.4172 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/04/08) -0.0408% -0.4046 tsp cents
(8/05/08) -0.6135% -0.2821 tsp cents
THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .9999 thru -.4000 Holy Cow !
- .4000 thru -.3000 High Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Meduim Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .2000 thru -.1000 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met)
-.1000 thru-.0000 (Not Seen For Over 2 Months)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Lower)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
---------------------------------------------------------------------
