Squalebear's Account Talk

[Guest2]

Current Market returns would leave me -9.15% YTD (single digit) !
and +3.80% MTD ! Hey, I'm allowed to toot my horn once in a
while ! :toung:

 

[Guest2]

Wouldn't it be NICE if the (I) Fund got paid the entire $0.08 Deficit that
the Fund Managers owe us. :nuts: Come on, add that .64% into the mix !
My kids need shoes for that up coming depression ! :toung:

 

[nasa1974]

SB,

I played follow the leader on Friday hoping I would buy into a down day and then keep my fingures crossed for an up day today. So what happens the market does a switch and goes green around 4pm, so I buy into strenght. Great move since I made $19.00. :laugh:
Holding even for today hoping for a minor sell off tomorrow and if that happens I will commit the rest of my G for an end of week rally. Then start the fade back to the lilly pad for the rest of the month. I know that I will not recover from the pit I am in but an 8-10% profit this month would reduce my negative numbers by 50%. That would be a nice Christmas present.

 

[Guest2]

SB,

I played follow the leader on Friday hoping I would buy into a down day and then keep my fingures crossed for an up day today. So what happens the market does a switch and goes green around 4pm, so I buy into strenght. Great move since I made $19.00. :laugh:
Holding even for today hoping for a minor sell off tomorrow and if that happens I will commit the rest of my G for an end of week rally. Then start the fade back to the lilly pad for the rest of the month. I know that I will not recover from the pit I am in but an 8-10% profit this month would reduce my negative numbers by 50%. That would be a nice Christmas present.

Even though I posted my possible YTD returns growing into a single digit
loss, I'm a firm believer in not looking back because it can cloud my
better judgement about current and future circumstances. I'm more apt
to looking back on the MTD figures to weigh reality versus previously set
goals I decided upon. I caution you as I don't expect this rally will be the
one we're looking for (20%-30%). Instead, it feels like a buy the rumor
about the Big 3 and sell the news when it arrives. Just a gut feeling and
I could be wrong. Economics Reports were non existing today. Obama's
Infrastructure Play will lose steam as well. I expect the market will drop
to the lower end of the downward channel which has formed. That would
be my next entry point. Should the market drop below the channel, then
a total bail or DCA'ing while going down would accumulate shares on the
cheap. Just my thoughts on this very nice day! Hopefully, it will hold up
during the last hour of trading. But something tells me we'll be off our
highs by then, because of profit taking. I hope I'm wrong and the Bulls
come out to play for a 425 point up day in the Dow.

 

[Guest2]

No help from the Fund Managers today. It's like
they're waiting to use the Deficit on a down day.
While keeping their powder dry in anticipation of
a possible reversal, they still managed to give the
(I) Funders all but a penny of todays glorious
returns that were seen in the EFA ! Last but not
least, Congratulations To All In The Risk Funds!
No matter which one you decided on, they sure
did kick some TSP Butt today !!!

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(11/17/08)+0.2385%+0.1035 tsp cents
(11/18/08)+0.0615%+0.0958 tsp cents
(11/19/08)+0.7053%+0.0048 tsp cents
(11/20/08)+0.4283% -0.0446 tsp cents
(11/21/08) -0.9898%+0.0732 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(11/24/08)+0.8559% -0.0785 tsp cents
(11/25/08) -0.4855% -0.0155 tsp cents
(11/26/08) -0.8046%+0.0909 tsp cents
(11/27/08) -0.8046%+0.0909 tsp cents (Holiday)
(11/28/08) -0.1318%+0.0735 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(12/01/08)+0.6216% -0.0081 tsp cents
(12/02/08) -0.6385%+0.0734 tsp cents
(12/03/08) -0.6890%+0.1629 tsp cents
(12/04/08)+0.2253%+0.1299 tsp cents
(12/05/08)+0.3991%+0.0812 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(12/08/08) -0.0997%+0.0983 tsp cents

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.2000 thru+.2500 Elavated Deficit, (Windfall Coming)
+.1500 thru+.2000 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Higher)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ---
- .0000 thru -.1000 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met)
- .1000 thru -.1500 Low Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .1500 thru -.2000 Medium Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher)
- .2000 thru -.2500 Elavated Overpayment, (Payback Immanent)
--------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Guest2]

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX= -38.05%.....C=...-36.70%....-09.60% (my figures):blink:
DW.= -41.91%.....S=.. -40.51%....
EFA= -46.38%......I=...-46.11%...
AGG= -01.96%.....F=.. +02.58%...
...........................G=...+03.57%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX=+01.50%.....C=...+01.62%....+03.33%(my figures)
DW.=+01.01%.....S=...+01.09%....
EFA=+00.86%......I=...+00.95%...
AGG=+00.75%.....F=...+00.90%...
...........................G=...+00.06%..

 

[Guest2]

I see alot of enthusiasm out there. Bull Calls and Bottom Feeders are
starting to sound off. I caution you that reality is not that far away.
Thats not to say that we can't see some nice moves up, its more of
a reminder that we've lost 10% in the (S) Fund in one day. I don't
believe for a second that the worst is over and the risks to our TSP
Investments are as high as they've ever been. So be careful out
there and don't fall too deeply into the hype. Risk what you can and
be prudent about what might be coming next.

With that said, Lets Kick Some Bear Booty Tomorrow and Continue
This Opportunity To Recoup Our Hard Earned Money !

 

[Guest2]

I'm guessing that the Poll will automatically remove itself from my thread.
The Final Tally showed that 17.39% of those who participated found the
O/D Tracker of little to no use. 82.61% found the information useful from
one degree or another. I will continue to publish my findings based on the
outcome. I invite any and all questions concerning the O/D Tracker, as
we have many new members who are not familiar with its origin, nor it's
goal. Thanks to everyone who participated, it helped me alot !

 

[nasa1974]

SB,

Congrats on getting to single digits. Lets hope more improvement is forthcoming.

 

[alevin]

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX= -38.05%.....C=...-36.70%....-09.60% (my figures):blink:

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX=+01.50%.....C=...+01.62%....+03.33%(my figures)

You're a good man, Charley Brown (oops, I meant "Bear" :toung. Congrats on pulling yourself out of that double-digit hole you fell in awhile back. That's hard work! Now go out and kick some more behinds!

 

[JTH]

I caution you as I don't expect this rally will be the one we're looking for (20%-30%). Instead, it feels like a buy the rumor
about the Big 3 and sell the news when it arrives. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ That would be my next entry point. Should the market drop below the channel, then a total bail or DCA'ing while going down would accumulate shares on the cheap.

I happen to think the same thing. I sold my Ford too early, but I did scalp some profits off of it. Still, Ford continues to gain and all of it is based on false hope. I wish I could short it, but all my money is tied up in stocks right now... :cheesy:

 

[Guest2]

SB,

Congrats on getting to single digits. Lets hope more improvement is forthcoming.

Thanks Nasa, I'm hoping for another day of rumors and bull manure too.

 

[Guest2]

you're a good man, charley brown (oops, i meant "bear" :toung. Congrats on pulling yourself out of that double-digit hole you fell in awhile back. That's hard work! Now go out and kick some more behinds!

Lets do it !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And thanks !

 

[Guest2]

I happen to think the same thing. I sold my Ford too early, but I did scalp some profits off of it. Still, Ford continues to gain and all of it is based on false hope. I wish I could short it, but all my money is tied up in stocks right now... :cheesy:

Speculation of Ford joining Cry-sler and the fact that Ford appears to
have a "Better Idea" is helping. I'm thinking its more that Ford is a better
run company and the big secret came out. Now, alls they have to do is
build a better car cheaper. I'd love to see a comitment to non-gasoline
engines myself. They have to demonstrate that Oil is Dead. I know, it's
only wishful thinking.

 

[Eldritch Flatus]

I have an '08 Escape hybrid I want to trade for an '09, 'cause of the new and better engine with variable valve timing other makes have been making for years. Yeah, Just try and find one. Ford advertises them all over the place, but there not building them! Oh yeah, It has to have heated leather seats, a premium sound system, and a moon roof. They can keep all that other crap (like the gps navagation etc), I don't need it and won't pay for it., And the mist green or ice blue please. The US automakers are not interested in anything except being in bed with the oil companies. (and mebbe the Unions), certainly not serious about really efficient vehicles. IMHPO'dO (in my humbly pi**ed off opinion)

 

[Guest2]

I have an '08 Escape hybrid I want to trade for an '09, 'cause of the new and better engine with variable valve timing other makes have been making for years. Yeah, Just try and find one. Ford advertises them all over the place, but there not building them! Oh yeah, It has to have heated leather seats, a premium sound system, and a moon roof. They can keep all that other crap (like the gps navagation etc), I don't need it and won't pay for it., And the mist green or ice blue please. The US automakers are not interested in anything except being in bed with the oil companies. (and mebbe the Unions), certainly not serious about really efficient vehicles. IMHPO'dO (in my humbly pi**ed off opinion)

First, let me say that I AM HONORED that one of our most Respected
and Long Term Members has stopped by my thread this morning. I mean
that in all sincerity as I've read your stuff (even the ones not easily found).
I've learned alot while reading your posts and finally get to say thank you !

I agree with you 1000% about the long standing relationship with the Oil
Companies and their lack of motivation to be anything else but a Oil Co.
enabler. I find myself scratching my head everytime I hear the word Hybrid
and can't help but wonder why they even exist. A comitment to Solar or
Electric Technology sounds (to me) to be more immediate and would void
any foreign dependence. I fear that the Oil Companies will survive another
US move to become oil indepenant as we have a short memory. We forgot
about the 70's, Gas Lines, Odd/Even days AND we'll eventually we'll forget
about $4.00 per gallon gas. As Captain Bingingham {McHales Navy Reference}
would say; "I could just scream". :notrust:

 

[GUCHI]

. The US automakers are not interested in anything except being in bed with the oil companies. (and mebbe the Unions),

thats what i can't understand !!! they have been in bed together 4 years why can't the oil company BAIL the autos out they have record profits !!! instead the oil industry turns its back on the auto.

 

[Guest2]

. The US automakers are not interested in anything except being in bed with the oil companies. (and mebbe the Unions),

thats what i can't understand !!! they have been in bed together 4 years why can't the oil company BAIL the autos out they have record profits !!! instead the oil industry turns its back on the auto.

Exactly my thoughts too GUCHI ! They have a vested interest in keeping
them alive and well. Maybe they're looking for more leverage then they
can reasonably get at this time. Like a take over, or even a buy out. It
certainly confuses me !

 

[Guest2]

I'm not familiar with the Mortgage Interest Rate plan that has been
mentioned in the media. But I am VERY interested in a 4.50% fixed
rate (30year) refinance. It would help me lower my ever growing
Mortgage Payment as I don't plan on moving any time soon. Does
anyone have a idea or a link they wish to share, concerning this so
called plan.

 

[Guest2]

Here's another request. I've done alot of thinking, but never acted on,
the idea of adding the actual MSCI EAFE INDEX to my O/D Tracker. I've
seen the Morgan Stanley website, however, I was wondering if anybody
utilizes a different site or method to retrieve the returns of the index that
they wouldn't mind sharing.