350zCommTech
Well-known member
They are still holding on to that 7 cents. Best of luck in the I fund. Barclays wants your money.
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Squalebear's Account Talk
- Thread starter Guest2
- Start date
They are still holding on to that 7 cents. Best of luck in the I fund. Barclays wants your money.
As the of 8:03pm update, they are now holding around $0.1629 TSP Cents
just waiting for me to take advantage of their lagging behind. (LoL). It's my
belief that Barclay's already has enough of my hard earned money. But your
absolutely right, they are greedy little turds and they could easily pull a fast
one on me tomorrow. Never before have I been so nervous about going
100% into a fund. Maybe it's because of Mondays 10% loss in the (S)
Fund. After each Up day, the market comes ever so close to seeing a
down day. I'm praying they will allow a 3rd day to the upside. This was
a pre orchestrated short term move (1 day). If I get lucky, I will bail to
the Bond Fund and leave a small portion in stocks to play with for the
rest of the year. Tomorrow is a important day for my portfolio, thats
for sure. Cross your fingers for me and Best of Luck in your decisions.
EUROPE MARKETS
European shares advance ahead of rate calls
Banks rise; Credit Suisse shakes off early weakness
By Sarah Turner, MarketWatch
Last update: 4:03 a.m. EST Dec. 4, 2008
LONDON (MarketWatch) - European shares advanced on Thursday morning, with banks moving higher ahead of rate decisions from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={9E9D76B6-E2E7-40EF-B44C-8D5D920D225B}
European shares advance ahead of rate calls
Banks rise; Credit Suisse shakes off early weakness
By Sarah Turner, MarketWatch
Last update: 4:03 a.m. EST Dec. 4, 2008
LONDON (MarketWatch) - European shares advanced on Thursday morning, with banks moving higher ahead of rate decisions from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={9E9D76B6-E2E7-40EF-B44C-8D5D920D225B}
Updates, advisories and surprises
By MarketWatch
Last update: 5:31 a.m. EST Dec. 4, 2008
Toll shrinks 4th-quarter loss; can't forecast '09 net GOOD
TOL 19.23, +0.99, +5.4%) the Horsham, Pa., home builder, narrowed its fiscal fourth-quarter loss on 40% lower revenue. The company declined to forecast earnings for fiscal 2009, citing "numerous uncertainties," but said revenue should drop significantly from fiscal 2008's total of $3.16 billion. For the quarter ended Oct. 31, the loss shrank to $78.8 million, or 49 cents a share, from $81.8 million, or 52 cents, in the year-earlier period. Adjusted earnings were 23 cents against 72 cents. Revenue fell to $698.9 million from $1.17 billion. A survey of analysts by FactSet Research produced a consensus estimate of a loss of 40 cents. Pre-tax write-downs totaled $175.9 million, down from $314.9 million. The backlog at Oct. 31 was valued at $1.33 billion, compared with $2.85 billion a year earlier. Toll estimated that in fiscal 2009 it would deliver 2,000 to 3,000 homes at an average price of $600,000 to $625,000. (Repeats to fix typographical error.)
Costco November same-store sales fell 5%, total down 3% BAD
COST 51.42, +1.32, +2.6%) the Issaquah, Wash., warehouse retailer, reported that in November, comparable-store sales fell 5%. Total sales fell 3% to $5.55 billion from $5.72 billion in the year-earlier period. Same-store sales -- revenue from stores open at least a year, to eliminate the effects of new and closed stores -- were off 2% in the U.S. and 15% internationally, Costco said on Thursday.
By MarketWatch
Last update: 5:31 a.m. EST Dec. 4, 2008
Toll shrinks 4th-quarter loss; can't forecast '09 net GOOD
TOL 19.23, +0.99, +5.4%) the Horsham, Pa., home builder, narrowed its fiscal fourth-quarter loss on 40% lower revenue. The company declined to forecast earnings for fiscal 2009, citing "numerous uncertainties," but said revenue should drop significantly from fiscal 2008's total of $3.16 billion. For the quarter ended Oct. 31, the loss shrank to $78.8 million, or 49 cents a share, from $81.8 million, or 52 cents, in the year-earlier period. Adjusted earnings were 23 cents against 72 cents. Revenue fell to $698.9 million from $1.17 billion. A survey of analysts by FactSet Research produced a consensus estimate of a loss of 40 cents. Pre-tax write-downs totaled $175.9 million, down from $314.9 million. The backlog at Oct. 31 was valued at $1.33 billion, compared with $2.85 billion a year earlier. Toll estimated that in fiscal 2009 it would deliver 2,000 to 3,000 homes at an average price of $600,000 to $625,000. (Repeats to fix typographical error.)
Costco November same-store sales fell 5%, total down 3% BAD
COST 51.42, +1.32, +2.6%) the Issaquah, Wash., warehouse retailer, reported that in November, comparable-store sales fell 5%. Total sales fell 3% to $5.55 billion from $5.72 billion in the year-earlier period. Same-store sales -- revenue from stores open at least a year, to eliminate the effects of new and closed stores -- were off 2% in the U.S. and 15% internationally, Costco said on Thursday.
The Market looked better when I was in prison. Ooops, a couple hours ago.
Great Interest Rate Cuts came out of Europe, but just like the US, they
might not mean very much in the way of fixing their economy. Stranger
things have happend and we could see a Bull/Bear battle most of the day.
I'm still expecting the worse and hoping for the best.
Great Interest Rate Cuts came out of Europe, but just like the US, they
might not mean very much in the way of fixing their economy. Stranger
things have happend and we could see a Bull/Bear battle most of the day.
I'm still expecting the worse and hoping for the best.
EFA opens down 3.03% 3 Tell Tale Signs Of A Sucker Rally
Thursday December 4, 9:30 am ET
By Simon Maierhofer
As of late, there's been much talk about the Great Depression. From September 1929 to June 1932 the Dow Jones (AMEX: DIA - News) lost 90% of its value. Obviously this wasn't a good time to be invested or stay invested.
Along this long and painful road down to Dow Jones 45 (the Dow dropped from 380 to 45) there were at least five counter trend rallies with moves of 20% or greater. In fact, the biggest paint gains (in percentage terms) occured during sucker rallies (see chart below). Those counter trend rallies were often accompanied by increased volume indicating that investors jumped on the band wagon believing that the worst was over. In hindsight we know that the worst wasn't over until it was over, which was when no one wanted to own stocks anymore. Volume in June of 1932 was anemic and continued subdued until the Dow was able to reach a new high in 1954. For good reason, counter trend rallies are also lovingly called 'sucker rallies' or 'dead cat bounces', both of which are self explanatory. Sucker rallies are fueled by investor's fear of losing out on an opportunity to make money. This force is not strong enough to propel a market for long and is eventually taken over by the fear of losing money which drives prices to yet another lower low.
Needless to say, the ability to distinguish a sucker rally - even the mere awareness of the existence of sucker rallies - can save you a lot of sleep and a ton of money. The benefit of spotting a dead cat bounce is two-fold. It can give you a better exit point and can prevent you from getting sucked into further losses.
How to spot a sucker rally: 1) Think like a contrarian:
Rallies occurring amidst hope and entitlement for more gains are doomed to fail. For example: Less than three months ago a headline on Smart Money Magazine's front page read: 'Now is the time to jump into stocks and real estate'. Since the headline, the S&P (AMEX: SPY - News) and Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (NYSEarca: VTI - News) dropped over 30%. One of yesterday's headlines touted, 'Yes, stocks are dirt cheap'.
On August 8, 2008, USA Today featured the following headline: 'On Wall Street, there is no such thing as a sure thing. But betting on a stock rally when oil prices plunge 20% comes pretty close'. Oil prices did plunge, the United States Oil Fund (AMEX: USO - News) shed 60%. There was however no rally for stocks to be found. Broader commodity ETFs like PowerShares Commodity Tracking (NYSEarca: DBC - News) and iShares S&P GSCI (NYSEarca: GSP - News) took significant hits.
When oil was $147/barrel, analysts projected $200/barrel. Instead oil took the route less traveled, now trading at below $50. Costco and Wal-Mart's move to restrict the sale of rice sparked talks about a global food shortage. The price of wheat, corn, rice and soybeans has been in a steep decline ever since. The PowerShares Agriculture ETF (NYSEarca: DBA - News) reflects the pain of agriculture commodity bulls (or should we say suckers).
How to spot a sucker rally: 2) Take a look at the bigger picture:
The fear of missing out on the next big opportunity often keeps us from taking a step back to look at the bigger picture. We are in a confirmed down market. Even the U.S. government officially admitted that we are in a recession and 60% of Americans believe we will tumble into a depression. Let's face it, nobody wants to own stocks. If you don't believe me, take a look at the chart. Dow down means investors are selling.
We are conditioned to believe that the next bull market is just around the corner. A bull market in Nasdaq (Nasdaq: QQQQ - News) technology stocks was followed by a bull market in real estate which was followed by a bull market in commodities. But we've run out of bulls. We are in a buyer's market, and the smart money is waiting to buy at lower prices.
How to spot a sucker rally: 3) Look at who's greedy:
Baron Rothschild is famous for coining the saying: 'The time to buy is when blood is running in the streets' or as Warren Buffett puts it, 'the time to be greedy is when others are fearful'. No bottom is in place as long as the average investor displays a buy-and hold sentimentality. Buy-and hold indicates that there is enough hope and greed to win back what's been lost. This mentality won't get you back the 55% you've lost in your iShares Emerging Markets Fund (NYSEarca: EEM - News) or the 50% you've lost in your diversified, global iShares MSCI EAFE (NYSEarca: EFA - News). A sucker rally may give you back some 20%, but then it's time to get out and keep your powder dry. Long is wrong.
Weeks in advance, we warned of the financial meltdown, in fact, over six weeks ago we alerted members of the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter that the Dow will have to drop below 7,500 before bottoming. The major market indexes have rallied nearly 15% since their November low (Dow 7,445). Nevertheless, I am concerned.
The last two up-days came on the heels of waning volume and weak breadth which has us worried yet again. In yesterdays update we highlighted a short ETF strategy which should be implemented if the Dow and S&P 500 don't reach our upper end 'control levels'. In a market like this, an investment in knowledge pays the best dividends.
Thursday December 4, 9:30 am ET
By Simon Maierhofer
As of late, there's been much talk about the Great Depression. From September 1929 to June 1932 the Dow Jones (AMEX: DIA - News) lost 90% of its value. Obviously this wasn't a good time to be invested or stay invested.
Along this long and painful road down to Dow Jones 45 (the Dow dropped from 380 to 45) there were at least five counter trend rallies with moves of 20% or greater. In fact, the biggest paint gains (in percentage terms) occured during sucker rallies (see chart below). Those counter trend rallies were often accompanied by increased volume indicating that investors jumped on the band wagon believing that the worst was over. In hindsight we know that the worst wasn't over until it was over, which was when no one wanted to own stocks anymore. Volume in June of 1932 was anemic and continued subdued until the Dow was able to reach a new high in 1954. For good reason, counter trend rallies are also lovingly called 'sucker rallies' or 'dead cat bounces', both of which are self explanatory. Sucker rallies are fueled by investor's fear of losing out on an opportunity to make money. This force is not strong enough to propel a market for long and is eventually taken over by the fear of losing money which drives prices to yet another lower low.
Needless to say, the ability to distinguish a sucker rally - even the mere awareness of the existence of sucker rallies - can save you a lot of sleep and a ton of money. The benefit of spotting a dead cat bounce is two-fold. It can give you a better exit point and can prevent you from getting sucked into further losses.
How to spot a sucker rally: 1) Think like a contrarian:
Rallies occurring amidst hope and entitlement for more gains are doomed to fail. For example: Less than three months ago a headline on Smart Money Magazine's front page read: 'Now is the time to jump into stocks and real estate'. Since the headline, the S&P (AMEX: SPY - News) and Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (NYSEarca: VTI - News) dropped over 30%. One of yesterday's headlines touted, 'Yes, stocks are dirt cheap'.
On August 8, 2008, USA Today featured the following headline: 'On Wall Street, there is no such thing as a sure thing. But betting on a stock rally when oil prices plunge 20% comes pretty close'. Oil prices did plunge, the United States Oil Fund (AMEX: USO - News) shed 60%. There was however no rally for stocks to be found. Broader commodity ETFs like PowerShares Commodity Tracking (NYSEarca: DBC - News) and iShares S&P GSCI (NYSEarca: GSP - News) took significant hits.
When oil was $147/barrel, analysts projected $200/barrel. Instead oil took the route less traveled, now trading at below $50. Costco and Wal-Mart's move to restrict the sale of rice sparked talks about a global food shortage. The price of wheat, corn, rice and soybeans has been in a steep decline ever since. The PowerShares Agriculture ETF (NYSEarca: DBA - News) reflects the pain of agriculture commodity bulls (or should we say suckers).
How to spot a sucker rally: 2) Take a look at the bigger picture:
The fear of missing out on the next big opportunity often keeps us from taking a step back to look at the bigger picture. We are in a confirmed down market. Even the U.S. government officially admitted that we are in a recession and 60% of Americans believe we will tumble into a depression. Let's face it, nobody wants to own stocks. If you don't believe me, take a look at the chart. Dow down means investors are selling.
We are conditioned to believe that the next bull market is just around the corner. A bull market in Nasdaq (Nasdaq: QQQQ - News) technology stocks was followed by a bull market in real estate which was followed by a bull market in commodities. But we've run out of bulls. We are in a buyer's market, and the smart money is waiting to buy at lower prices.
How to spot a sucker rally: 3) Look at who's greedy:
Baron Rothschild is famous for coining the saying: 'The time to buy is when blood is running in the streets' or as Warren Buffett puts it, 'the time to be greedy is when others are fearful'. No bottom is in place as long as the average investor displays a buy-and hold sentimentality. Buy-and hold indicates that there is enough hope and greed to win back what's been lost. This mentality won't get you back the 55% you've lost in your iShares Emerging Markets Fund (NYSEarca: EEM - News) or the 50% you've lost in your diversified, global iShares MSCI EAFE (NYSEarca: EFA - News). A sucker rally may give you back some 20%, but then it's time to get out and keep your powder dry. Long is wrong.
Weeks in advance, we warned of the financial meltdown, in fact, over six weeks ago we alerted members of the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter that the Dow will have to drop below 7,500 before bottoming. The major market indexes have rallied nearly 15% since their November low (Dow 7,445). Nevertheless, I am concerned.
The last two up-days came on the heels of waning volume and weak breadth which has us worried yet again. In yesterdays update we highlighted a short ETF strategy which should be implemented if the Dow and S&P 500 don't reach our upper end 'control levels'. In a market like this, an investment in knowledge pays the best dividends.
CountryBoy
Well-known member
Thanks SqualeBear,
Very interesting read, we gotta have patience.
CB
Very interesting read, we gotta have patience.
CB
I know your right CB, I took a chance today and now I have to look at
the Economic News due out tomorrow. Everyone is calling for a Black
Friday of the negative kind. Everything tells me to diversify today. And
yet, I don't want to sell and lock in the loss I might end up with. Its
enough to drive one crazy.
hey, its early and the US market are offtheir lows. Maybe the end of the day will satisfy !
CountryBoy
Well-known member
Good Luck Squale,
Months ago, before the markets began playing games, I preferred to see the markets open low when I was in the C or S Fund. Now it's better to be lucky than good.
CB
Months ago, before the markets began playing games, I preferred to see the markets open low when I was in the C or S Fund. Now it's better to be lucky than good.
CB
I suspect the definition of "Long" would come into play. The article didn't
clearly define his opinion of what time frame he considered a Long Term.
Although we could guess its approximately a 5-7 year period. Long isn't
wrong for everyone, I agree ! But the Future for me is right around the
corner and Long is a measure of time that each must define on their own.
Something told me you'd stop by today. I really did think of you the minute
I read the article. I'm glad that you did and I hope you've been well.
Ok, most of you have heard me mention the Deficit within the O/D Tracker
as being $0.16 TSP Cents. If we change that to a percentage, It would
mean a +1.26% offset of todays loss. (If it ends negative). Sounds like I'm
grabbing for straws right now, but I've seen this many times in the past.
EFA Currently: -1.81%
Possible Offset: +1.26%
End result: -0.51% (wishful thinking?)
I'm gonna take CB's advise and be patient. I'm leaning towards staying in
the (I) Fund for "Death Star Friday". Of coarse, I won't waive my right to
change my mind before noon.
as being $0.16 TSP Cents. If we change that to a percentage, It would
mean a +1.26% offset of todays loss. (If it ends negative). Sounds like I'm
grabbing for straws right now, but I've seen this many times in the past.
EFA Currently: -1.81%
Possible Offset: +1.26%
End result: -0.51% (wishful thinking?)
I'm gonna take CB's advise and be patient. I'm leaning towards staying in
the (I) Fund for "Death Star Friday". Of coarse, I won't waive my right to
change my mind before noon.
iShares MSCI EAFE IDXETF (PACF:EFA)Strong Downtrend:Smart Scan
Chart Analysis continues negative longer term. Look for this market to
remain weak. Strong Downtrend with money management stops. A minus
sign indicates the presence of a very strong trend that is being driven by
strong forces and insiders.
Based on a pre-defined weighted trend formula for chart analysis, EFA
scored -90 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend):
+10 Last Hour Close Above 5 Hour Moving Average
-15 New 3 Day Low on Monday
-20 Last Price Below 20 Day Moving Average
-25 New 3 Week Low, Week Ending November 22nd
-30 New 3 Month Low in September
-90Total Score
Chart Analysis continues negative longer term. Look for this market to
remain weak. Strong Downtrend with money management stops. A minus
sign indicates the presence of a very strong trend that is being driven by
strong forces and insiders.
Based on a pre-defined weighted trend formula for chart analysis, EFA
scored -90 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend):
-15 New 3 Day Low on Monday
-20 Last Price Below 20 Day Moving Average
-25 New 3 Week Low, Week Ending November 22nd
-30 New 3 Month Low in September
-90Total Score
XL-entLady
Well-known member
Hi SB, thanks for the drive by! Although I've been a bit (!) under the weather lately, there are a few posters that I always read. (Coolhand, Robo, Bullitt, Silverbird, Show-me, etc., etc.) And your posts are always in the "never miss 'em" category!
This month my plan is to buy about 50% into the first dip, pare my holdings to about 30% on the big rally that will follow, then spend the rest of the month DCA-ing with your magical <1% IFTs.
We'll see if that's actually a plan or if it is an accident waiting to happen! :cheesy:
Good luck with your I Fund flyer!
Lady
This month my plan is to buy about 50% into the first dip, pare my holdings to about 30% on the big rally that will follow, then spend the rest of the month DCA-ing with your magical <1% IFTs.
We'll see if that's actually a plan or if it is an accident waiting to happen! :cheesy:
Good luck with your I Fund flyer!
Lady
The O/D Tracker gets a little payback when the
(I) Funders needed a whole lot more on such a
sad ending of Thursday's trading day!
While the Fund Managers allowed a 0.22% payback, the $0.03 TSP
Cents did little in the way to offset the -2.92% loss that the (I)
Funders had to absorb. The Deficit remains within Double Digits at
$0.1299 TSP Cents for tomorrow's trade. Would it be too much to
ask for a surprise come Friday's Economic Reports or are we destined
to see yet another big time loss. :worried:
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(11/10/08)+0.4357%+0.0029 tsp cents
(11/11/08) -0.4275%+0.0606 tsp cents (TSP Holiday)
(11/12/08)+0.5121% -0.0083 tsp cents
(11/13/08) -1.5707%+0.2074 tsp cents
(11/14/08)+0.4616%+0.1363 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(11/17/08)+0.2385%+0.1035 tsp cents
(11/18/08)+0.0615%+0.0958 tsp cents
(11/19/08)+0.7053%+0.0048 tsp cents
(11/20/08)+0.4283% -0.0446 tsp cents
(11/21/08) -0.9898%+0.0732 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(11/24/08)+0.8559% -0.0785 tsp cents
(11/25/08) -0.4855% -0.0155 tsp cents
(11/26/08) -0.8046%+0.0909 tsp cents
(11/27/08) -0.8046%+0.0909 tsp cents (Holiday)
(11/28/08) -0.1318%+0.0735 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(12/01/08)+0.6216% -0.0081 tsp cents
(12/02/08) -0.6385%+0.0734 tsp cents
(12/03/08) -0.6890%+0.1629 tsp cents
(12/04/08)+0.2253%+0.1299 tsp cents
THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.2000 thru+.2500 Elavated Deficit, (Windfall Coming)
+.1500 thru+.2000 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Higher)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ---
- .0000 thru -.1000 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met)
- .1000 thru -.1500 Low Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .1500 thru -.2000 Medium Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher)
- .2000 thru -.2500 Elavated Overpayment, (Payback Immanent)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
(I) Funders needed a whole lot more on such a
sad ending of Thursday's trading day!
While the Fund Managers allowed a 0.22% payback, the $0.03 TSP
Cents did little in the way to offset the -2.92% loss that the (I)
Funders had to absorb. The Deficit remains within Double Digits at
$0.1299 TSP Cents for tomorrow's trade. Would it be too much to
ask for a surprise come Friday's Economic Reports or are we destined
to see yet another big time loss. :worried:
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(11/10/08)+0.4357%+0.0029 tsp cents
(11/11/08) -0.4275%+0.0606 tsp cents (TSP Holiday)
(11/12/08)+0.5121% -0.0083 tsp cents
(11/13/08) -1.5707%+0.2074 tsp cents
(11/14/08)+0.4616%+0.1363 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(11/17/08)+0.2385%+0.1035 tsp cents
(11/18/08)+0.0615%+0.0958 tsp cents
(11/19/08)+0.7053%+0.0048 tsp cents
(11/20/08)+0.4283% -0.0446 tsp cents
(11/21/08) -0.9898%+0.0732 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(11/24/08)+0.8559% -0.0785 tsp cents
(11/25/08) -0.4855% -0.0155 tsp cents
(11/26/08) -0.8046%+0.0909 tsp cents
(11/27/08) -0.8046%+0.0909 tsp cents (Holiday)
(11/28/08) -0.1318%+0.0735 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(12/01/08)+0.6216% -0.0081 tsp cents
(12/02/08) -0.6385%+0.0734 tsp cents
(12/03/08) -0.6890%+0.1629 tsp cents
(12/04/08)+0.2253%+0.1299 tsp cents
THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.2000 thru+.2500 Elavated Deficit, (Windfall Coming)
+.1500 thru+.2000 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Higher)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ---
- .0000 thru -.1000 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met)
- .1000 thru -.1500 Low Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .1500 thru -.2000 Medium Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher)
- .2000 thru -.2500 Elavated Overpayment, (Payback Immanent)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
With December 8th just around the corner, I wanted
to thank each and every member that casted a vote
within my Poll. It's the first I've ever done and the
information helped a great deal. Based on the results
so far, it would appear that its "Fairly Useful" to many
of the members who participated. Before this Poll was
posted, I didn't have a clue as to how many may be
following the daily results. Again, thanks for your
participation and helping me understand alittle better.
to thank each and every member that casted a vote
within my Poll. It's the first I've ever done and the
information helped a great deal. Based on the results
so far, it would appear that its "Fairly Useful" to many
of the members who participated. Before this Poll was
posted, I didn't have a clue as to how many may be
following the daily results. Again, thanks for your
participation and helping me understand alittle better.
Every Little Bit Helps ! But they still owe the (I)
Funders and it looks like we'll have to wait until
Monday to get it ! With a little Luck !
After seeing the Employment figures come out at 8:30am, there
appeared to be no hope for any fund but the (F). The way Rick
Santelli announced the figures, could have sent anyone to a padded
cell with all sharp objects removed by force. I remember laughing at
the one interview when I heard a floor trader say "the Market could
claw its way back up to even by mid day". The (I) Fund lagged badly
behind the US Market in its daily returns, but a positive is nothing
to be taken for granted on this day. A payback of $0.0487 TSPCents
came ontop of it all and drove the deficit down to Goal Levels. The
deficit remains at $0.0813 TSP Cents and we're looking forward to
seeing Monday come up positive too. The (I) Funders want every
last penny left behind.
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(11/10/08)+0.4357%+0.0029 tsp cents
(11/11/08) -0.4275%+0.0606 tsp cents (TSP Holiday)
(11/12/08)+0.5121% -0.0083 tsp cents
(11/13/08) -1.5707%+0.2074 tsp cents
(11/14/08)+0.4616%+0.1363 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(11/17/08)+0.2385%+0.1035 tsp cents
(11/18/08)+0.0615%+0.0958 tsp cents
(11/19/08)+0.7053%+0.0048 tsp cents
(11/20/08)+0.4283% -0.0446 tsp cents
(11/21/08) -0.9898%+0.0732 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(11/24/08)+0.8559% -0.0785 tsp cents
(11/25/08) -0.4855% -0.0155 tsp cents
(11/26/08) -0.8046%+0.0909 tsp cents
(11/27/08) -0.8046%+0.0909 tsp cents (Holiday)
(11/28/08) -0.1318%+0.0735 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(12/01/08)+0.6216% -0.0081 tsp cents
(12/02/08) -0.6385%+0.0734 tsp cents
(12/03/08) -0.6890%+0.1629 tsp cents
(12/04/08)+0.2253%+0.1299 tsp cents
(12/05/08)+0.3991%+0.0812 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(12/08/08)
THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.2000 thru+.2500 Elavated Deficit, (Windfall Coming)
+.1500 thru+.2000 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Higher)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ---
- .0000 thru -.1000 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met)
- .1000 thru -.1500 Low Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .1500 thru -.2000 Medium Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher)
- .2000 thru -.2500 Elavated Overpayment, (Payback Immanent)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Funders and it looks like we'll have to wait until
Monday to get it ! With a little Luck !
After seeing the Employment figures come out at 8:30am, there
appeared to be no hope for any fund but the (F). The way Rick
Santelli announced the figures, could have sent anyone to a padded
cell with all sharp objects removed by force. I remember laughing at
the one interview when I heard a floor trader say "the Market could
claw its way back up to even by mid day". The (I) Fund lagged badly
behind the US Market in its daily returns, but a positive is nothing
to be taken for granted on this day. A payback of $0.0487 TSPCents
came ontop of it all and drove the deficit down to Goal Levels. The
deficit remains at $0.0813 TSP Cents and we're looking forward to
seeing Monday come up positive too. The (I) Funders want every
last penny left behind.
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(11/10/08)+0.4357%+0.0029 tsp cents
(11/11/08) -0.4275%+0.0606 tsp cents (TSP Holiday)
(11/12/08)+0.5121% -0.0083 tsp cents
(11/13/08) -1.5707%+0.2074 tsp cents
(11/14/08)+0.4616%+0.1363 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(11/17/08)+0.2385%+0.1035 tsp cents
(11/18/08)+0.0615%+0.0958 tsp cents
(11/19/08)+0.7053%+0.0048 tsp cents
(11/20/08)+0.4283% -0.0446 tsp cents
(11/21/08) -0.9898%+0.0732 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(11/24/08)+0.8559% -0.0785 tsp cents
(11/25/08) -0.4855% -0.0155 tsp cents
(11/26/08) -0.8046%+0.0909 tsp cents
(11/27/08) -0.8046%+0.0909 tsp cents (Holiday)
(11/28/08) -0.1318%+0.0735 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(12/01/08)+0.6216% -0.0081 tsp cents
(12/02/08) -0.6385%+0.0734 tsp cents
(12/03/08) -0.6890%+0.1629 tsp cents
(12/04/08)+0.2253%+0.1299 tsp cents
(12/05/08)+0.3991%+0.0812 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(12/08/08)
THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.2000 thru+.2500 Elavated Deficit, (Windfall Coming)
+.1500 thru+.2000 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Higher)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ---
- .0000 thru -.1000 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met)
- .1000 thru -.1500 Low Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .1500 thru -.2000 Medium Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher)
- .2000 thru -.2500 Elavated Overpayment, (Payback Immanent)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX= -40.34%.....C=...-39.05%....-14.05% (my figures):worried:
DW.= -44.29%.....S=.. -43.00%....
EFA= -48.82%......I=...-48.50%...
AGG= -01.83%.....F=.. +02.54%...
...........................G=...+03.55%...
MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX= -02.25%.....C=...-02.24%....-01.29%(my figures):worried:
DW.= -03.13%.....S=...-03.27%....
EFA= -03.71%......I=...-03.70%...
AGG=+00.88%.....F=...+00.87%...
...........................G=...+00.04%..
SPX= -40.34%.....C=...-39.05%....-14.05% (my figures):worried:
DW.= -44.29%.....S=.. -43.00%....
EFA= -48.82%......I=...-48.50%...
AGG= -01.83%.....F=.. +02.54%...
...........................G=...+03.55%...
MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX= -02.25%.....C=...-02.24%....-01.29%(my figures):worried:
DW.= -03.13%.....S=...-03.27%....
EFA= -03.71%......I=...-03.70%...
AGG=+00.88%.....F=...+00.87%...
...........................G=...+00.04%..
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