Squalebear's Account Talk

[Guest2]

Futures Edge Higher Before Election Day

With only a smattering of news on the economic and earnings front, traders were expected to lay low on the final day of the presidential campaign. Right now that money is sitting on the sidelines waiting to see what happens tomorrow. A relief rally is expected on Wall Street for Tuesday, the day of the U.S. presidential election, as business leaders and analysts continue to debate which candidate will be better for the economy.

Meanwhile, U.S. business conditions took a sharp downturn in the third quarter and the near-term outlook is even more gloomy, according to a quarterly survey conducted by the National Association for Business Economics.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/27513047

 

[INVSTSMRT78]

Go figure, I stopped putting in my <1% IFT's into the AutoTracker.
I have alot more then you know. (LoL) The O/D Tracker update is Next.

Newb question here. I was under the impression we were allotted only 2 IFT's for the month. Unless, you are allotted only 2 IFT's between any fund other than the G fund; of which an individual can always move funds back into this fund. Am I wrong?

 

[nnuut]

No, initially you get 2, thats to any fund and all count. After the first 2 than you have unlimited to the "G" fund. You can do 10% to the "G" for example 10 times!
Welcome to the MB
Norman

 

[INVSTSMRT78]

No, initially you get 2, thats to any fund and all count. After the first 2 than you have unlimited to the "G" fund. You can do 10% to the "G" for example 10 times!
Welcome to the MB
Norman

Nice! Thanks for the clarification!

 

[INVSTSMRT78]

Oh...one last question regarding allocations. Sorry!

Approximately 97% of my money currently lies within the G fund. However, for some reason I have my current allocations as 50% C, 45% S, and 10% G. Is this screwy? Shouldn’t it be the other way around?

 

[Geaux4it]

Oh...one last question regarding allocations. Sorry!

Approximately 97% of my money currently lies within the G fund. However, for some reason I have my current allocations as 50% C, 45% S, and 10% G. Is this screwy? Shouldn’t it be the other way around?

Depends on how your allocations (bi-weekly) are distributed. You cuold very well be contributing as you say to C and S every two weeks yet still only have ~3% of your balance in those funds.

Geaux

 

[INVSTSMRT78]

Depends on how your allocations (bi-weekly) are distributed. You cuold very well be contributing as you say to C and S every two weeks yet still only have ~3% of your balance in those funds.

Geaux

Makes sense. Thanks!

 

[Guest2]

Good Afternoon Everyone. I made a 100% IFT into the
(I) Fund Today. Stabilization and a Relief Rally is what
I'm hoping and expecting. It wouldn't be too much to
ask for Europe to lower rates, would it? Good Luck ! :blink:

 

[Guest2]

Nice! Thanks for the clarification!

Thanks Norm and Geaux4it, sorry I wasn't here earlier, I fell asleep
at the desk with that cup of coffee in hand. It was a long Saturday
& Sunday. Now, its my weekend and I'm ready to vote and make some
money. Thanks for stopping by IS78, Nnuts and Geaux4it are on their
game and are always on the look out to help.

 

[Birchtree]

The Nikkei Stock Average of 225 companies dropped to a 26 year low on October 27. Japanese stocks are a bargain compared with their history and are now trading at their cheapest levels since at least the 1980s. That is a reflection of investor pessimism about the rough economic times that lie ahead for Japan and the burden of a stronger yen on the country's exporters. Stocks there are trading at about 11.5 times their earnings for the last 12 months, according to estimates based on the MSCI Japan index. During the 1990s, Japanese shares traded at more than 80 times earnings. If you make good on the I fund I will too.

 

[Guest2]

The Nikkei Stock Average of 225 companies dropped to a 26 year low on October 27. Japanese stocks are a bargain compared with their history and are now trading at their cheapest levels since at least the 1980s. That is a reflection of investor pessimism about the rough economic times that lie ahead for Japan and the burden of a stronger yen on the country's exporters. Stocks there are trading at about 11.5 times their earnings for the last 12 months, according to estimates based on the MSCI Japan index. During the 1990s, Japanese shares traded at more than 80 times earnings. If you make good on the I fund I will too.

Good Luck to us both, Japan weighs about 26% of the overall (I) Fund
and cheap is a good thing. Maybe we'll get a rebound from last nights
terrible closing of the Nikkei (-5.01%) as well. The Yen was up (+0.80%)
and Euro down (-0.62%) the last I looked. We need the Dollar to give
us a little break too.

 

[Guest2]

Congratulations To Anthony !
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=6495

Poolman Keeps Getting it Right Too!
​

 

[Guest2]

FUND MANAGERS LEAN TOWARDS THE DEFICIT SIDE OF THE O/D
TRACKER. DEEPEST DEFICIT YET. THIS WEEK COULD CONFIRM A
COMPLETE REVERSAL. THE STABILITY AND CONSISTANCY IS MORE
LIKE YEARS PAST. THIS IS ONE REASON I NOW FEEL COMFORTABLE
WITH THE (I) FUND FOR INVESTMENT PURPOSES. I MADE A IFT OF
100% INTO THE (I) FUND THIS MORNING, EFFECTIVE AT THE C.O.B
TODAY. FOR NEWBIES, THIS SIMPLY MEANS THAT THE (I) FUND
UNDERPERFORMED THE EFA AND THE FUND MANAGERS MUST NOW
MAKE THE (I) FUND OUTPERFORM THE EFA TO BRING THEIR YTD
RETURNS INTO ALIGNMENT. GOOD LUCK TOMORROW AND DON'T
FORGET TO VOTE.

YTD O/D FOR ALL TSP FUNDS

(C) Fund vs. the SPX = -0.1945 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.75%
(S) Fund vs. DWCPF. = -0.2723 TSP Cent Overpayment or +2.07%
(I). Fund vs. the EFA =+0.0950 TSP Cent Overpayment or -0.67%

DAILY (I) FUND VS. EFA O/D TRACKING RESULTS:

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/13/08) +0.6117% -0.3431 tsp cents
(10/14/08) -1.0454% -0.1711 tsp cents
(10/15/08) +0.9341% -0.2846 tsp cents
(10/16/08) -1.7110% -0.0482 tsp cents
(10/17/08) +0.3405% -0.0987 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/20/08) -0.7050%+0.0048 tsp cents
(10/21/08)+0.8721% -0.1205 tsp cents
(10/22/08)+0.5115% -0.1807 tsp cents
(10/23/08) -0.3743% -0.1331 tsp cents
(10/24/08) -0.4057% -0.0725 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/27/08) -0.4900% -0.1282 tsp cents
(10/28/08) -1.9368%+0.1181 tsp cents
(10/29/08)+0.7332%+0.0193 tsp cents
(10/30/08)+0.9004% -0.1080 tsp cents
(10/31/08) -0.8988%+0.0199 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(11/03/08) -0.5300%+0.0950 tsp cents

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .6000 thru -.4000 High Overpayment (Payback Past Due)
- .4000 thru -.3000 Elavated Overpayment, (Payback Immanent)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Medium Overpayment (Flip A Coin)
- .2000 thru -.1000 Low Overpayment, (Slightly Over Goal)
- .1000 thru -.0000 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Lower)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
---------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Guest2]

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX= -34.19%.....C=...-33.00%....-16.25% (my figures)
DW.= -34.92%.....S=.. -33.66%....
EFA= -42.99%......I=...-42.74%...
AGG= -07.05%.....F=...-01.20%...
...........................G=...+03.22%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX= -00.25%.....C=...-00.25%....+00.03%(my figures):worried:
DW.=+00.05%.....S=..+00.05%....
EFA=+00.40%.....I=....-00.13%...
AGG= -02.00%.....F=...+00.40%...
...........................G=..+00.03%..

 

[Guest2]

Euro gains on Dollar, however, European Economy Weak !
Weaker European economy points to European Central Bank or Bank of England rate cuts.

White House race: Investors are also keenly awaiting the results of Tuesday's U.S. presidential election. "A Democratic victory is likely to see a fair amount of optimism," said Dolan. That would bode well for the Dollar, Euro, British Pound and Australian dollar - all of which would likely rise against the Japanese Yen. The Yen is often purchased as a hedge against risk.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/03/markets/dollar/index.htm

 

[Guest2]

HAPPY ELECTION DAY !
NO MATTER WHO WINS TODAY
MAY OUR FAMILIES AND ECONOMY BENEFIT

So, what will the Market look like by the end of the day?

a) A slow continuous downward spiril,,(negative by end)
b) A volitile up and down kinda day,(unchanged by end)
c) Down, but ending in a Relief Rally,,,,,(positive by end)

IMHO, I'm thinking a mixture of A and B. In other words, a day which will
see both Green and Red by as much as 1.75% on each side of the tracks.
Only to end up Mixed to Unchanged by days end.:worried:

I hope I'm wrong ! I'm looking for a Relief Rally ! What do you think ? ​

 

[WorkFE]

Being that we are 100% I now.
I suppose a small rally would give alittle hope

 

[Guest2]

Being that we are 100% I now.
I suppose a small rally would give alittle hope

WF, what are you doing lurking around that time of the morning ! :nuts:
Welcome to the MB and to my thread. Thanks for jumping in and
letting your thoughts flow ! I'm always hoping for a rally, even when
if its not reasonable to expect one. Oh yes, unless I run out of IFT's.
Being that we're both in up to our eyeballs :blink: at 100%, hope is higher
then the Greatful Dead in concert. Right now, I'm hoping that the +2%
US Futures and Europe's +2% gains hold out like Japan did. The dollar
is kicking tail out of the Euro and that will take a little bite out of the
(I) Funds bark, but maybe the 0.09 cent TSP Deficit will make up for
some of that. Anyway, good luck to us both. It looks to be a exciting
day, but we'll never know until the close at 4pm est.

 

[WorkFE]

Up early for me and the misses to vote.
Was 100% I on 10 Oct.
Decided to hang out there alittle, might as well stay longer now that I hear some others checking in.

 

[Guest2]

Up early for me and the misses to vote. Was
100% I on 10 Oct. Decided to hang out there alittle, might as well stay
longer now that I hear some others checking in.

And vote we must !

As far as your reason to hang a little longer in the (I) Fund goes, well,
I don't want to sound like I'm lecturing. But at the risk of doing so, I must
say that its the worst possible reason I can think of. If it only played a
small part in making your informed decision, then Congratulations on your
testicular fortitude and sticking to your game plan. Just remember, we're
only sheep. Hopefully, we're not being drawn to the slaughterhouse. I'm
simply praying for a haircut and a nice wool sweater out of the deal. Best
of Luck Again ! May we be Right more then we are Wrong !