southbeachrat's Account Talk

[Intrepid_Timer]

S&P hopefully finding a bottom here. I will stick with my 70% C 30% S allocation for now. Jobs report sure put a whammy on the market. In retrospect, patience until Monday would have been prudent. However I am still confident in my plan to be somewhat of a contrarian right now.

I believe we are oversold here and want to stay fully in stocks for a bounce next week. Just my opinion. Any news or appearances by Fed members next week will surely be watched closely. Here we go again trying to anticipate the Fed move for Jan 28 meeting. I am expecting a 50 point basis cut at this point. Any other opinions??? Also, does anyone know of any scheduled speeches by Fed members next week?

http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html

 

[Corepuncher]

Just a hunch, but I think anyone expecting 50% cut is setting themselves up for a fall. It may happen. But given the FED's track record, I would not count on it. They are there for the good of the overall economy, present and future, and Wall street may not like what they prescribe.

 

[southbeachrat]

Just a hunch, but I think anyone expecting 50% cut is setting themselves up for a fall. It may happen. But given the FED's track record, I would not count on it. They are there for the good of the overall economy, present and future, and Wall street may not like what they prescribe.

Well, I certainly don't know what the fed will do, I'm just guessing. I do know that whatever they do will move the markets for sure. I don't want to be in a position of trying to position myself ahead of their moves anymore. I have been wrong too many times.

I just want to be on top of what is happening as much as possible, and then be flat when uncertainty and volatility prevails. I'm rapidly learning that it may be more important to know when not to be invested is more important than being in the market.. Especially in the recent past. I guess I'm trying to limit my exposure more in the future. ( Kinda like today) lol.

 

[southbeachrat]

I just wonder if the rate cuts are having a diminishing affect. They can only cut so much then what? They become pointless at some point and are just a smoke screen to try and sway the masses into believing that things will get better if they cut enough but not really addressing the real issues, whatever they are.

Yeah I totally agree. It can be very distracting from the real underlying issues that also move the market. The media places so much emphasis on the Fed moves and that doesn't help either.
I'd like to think that I rely on technical analysis, and look more to the charts. The charts reflect the underlying emotions that really drive the markets. In the end, I don't like to rely on any one indicator. I'm still relatively new at all of this, and I try to get a big picture.

"and all this science, I don't understand. It's just my job 5 days a week".
-Elton John (Rocketman)

 

[southbeachrat]

If the TSP boards new restrictions do nothing else, they may teach me patience. I now have to treat each IFT as the last possible move for the month. My trading personality is against buy and hold, but now I'm forced to have a "modified" BH strategy. I'm waiting for the bounce short term, and my insincts say go to the sidelines until things settle down. SO.... I stay in stocks for tomorrow and hope for the bounce because I don't want to miss the gains. Tracy has not made this game any easier, that's for sure!

I hate to use four-letter words but I HOPE for a bounce tomorrow. I want to avoid any further LOSS for the year.

 

[southbeachrat]

Well, I think I have seen the only bounce we are going to get here this morning. I only see the market consolidating short term here. Post consolidation, I smell further pull back. I think I will sit 50%G 50%F until the market tells me otherwise.

I expect a recession later this year, it's just a matter of how bad.. IMHO.

Maybe the day can finish in the green for a last squeeze in the C fund.

 

[hessian]

Well, I think I have seen the only bounce we are going to get here this morning. I only see the market consolidating short term here. Post consolidation, I smell further pull back. I think I will sit 50%G 50%F until the market tells me otherwise.

I expect a recession later this year, it's just a matter of how bad.. IMHO.

Maybe the day can finish in the green for a last squeeze in the C fund.

Hey South,
ust thought I'd give ya some advice. :cheesy: The last 3 months have been especially volatile -really a mess, intra-day. Learn that this has become the "norm" for now -what happens by noon doesn't necessarily carry thru close. Watch the the charts, the fundamentals, the technical analysis! Even then its been a crap shoot, but at least you won't get whipsawed, & lashed around daily. That's my best advice in this madhouse.

PS at noon today, all down, I thought, bail? Naw, not today, this is more of same - what we've been seeing every day since mid-Nov. Personally, I think its institutuions. Today, Financials, were laggards driving things down into 1100/noon! Now I have no idea, but I'll make a bet right here - I'd bet Financilas are leading markets now! What's that tell you?
VR

 

[merlin]

Well, I think I have seen the only bounce we are going to get here this morning. I only see the market consolidating short term here. Post consolidation, I smell further pull back. I think I will sit 50%G 50%F until the market tells me otherwise.

I expect a recession later this year, it's just a matter of how bad.. IMHO.

Maybe the day can finish in the green for a last squeeze in the C fund.

I feel the same . Have been and will stay 50 G and 50 F until the market shows me something. Having lost in Oct, Nov, and Dec-dont feel like jumping in soon.

 

[southbeachrat]

Well the market is certainly volatile but I woundn't classify it as the "norm" at this point. I wrote today off prior to the IFT deadline and moved to safety regardless of the rest of the days potential. I was only wishin and hopin that the day might not end up so bad.

My prediction at this point is a bounce in the market within a week. Maybe even an early surprise rate cut (50 basis pts) which will result in a nice bounce. Then within 2 weeks a panic selloff to 1275 on the S&P. I will then consider it a time to buy back in.

But.. What do I know. It's only my guess.

 

[southbeachrat]

Not too impressed with today's rally. 1420 seems to me to be a magic number on the S&P. It cuts right through the lows of Nov 08, Aug 08, Apr 08. 1420 has been a good support level since early Dec 07. I would have been more impressed with a breakout above this level with all the hype of Bernanke's little speech, AA positive earnings report, and the CFC takeover rumors, etc. I'm still willing to give it a chance though.

It will be very interesting to see the market reaction tomorrow. I am personally marking 1450 as resistance, and 1390 as support. If it breaks below 1380..look out below. Breakout above 1450 and it has a good chance of a short term rally. I will be watching closely.

At this point I don't care what the Fed or anyone else does. I'm more inclined to pay attention to the upcoming earnings season. THAT will be the indicator to tell me where the market is headed. I'm just looking for the market to tell me what to do next.

Hope everyone got a few points back on the small rally yesterday and today. I have been on the sidelines 50% G 50% F. I hate to be bearish, but I don't see a lot of good indicators.

 

[southbeachrat]

Like we're not all sick of hearing about the sub-prime mess and credit worries..the picture gets uglier everyday. The financials keep getting whacked every time a rock gets turned over. Merrill Lynch is now singing the blues and they will report earnings next week. Any guesses on where that stock is headed next week?? Not a good start to the earnings season. Citigroup also due to report. Might be a the only way to make money next week. Too bad we can't short funds in the TSP.

Anyone notice the consumers staples also taking it on the chin? Kroger, Proctor & Gamble and Costco got slammed on friday. Even Mickey D's is complaining about business. All of these stocks were down 2-3%. Not a good sign in (pre) inflationary times.

The only bright spot I can see is Oil dropping. If the Nigerians stop blowing up their oil supplies and the Iranians start using their boats for what they should be used for (fishing for tuna)...maybe we can get oil under $90 next week.

Sure wish I could be more optimistic. I hope the pain is short lived. (short ..get it? ).

Be smart. Time for CP.

 

[southbeachrat]

No end to this carnage in sight. If we are depending on the two B's to save the day (Bush & Bernanke) things are worse than I imagined. All I know is that my shorts are booking coin right now and they are getting better everyday.

I hope the bleeding stops soon..I don't like being a short. I will be flat by friday because I can't sleep at night either way right now. I smell a sort squeeze coming. Maybe next week we will be able to spell c-a-p-i-t-u-l-a-t-i-o-n. I will then finally be able put my TSP funds to work.

Don't let your big losses become bigger losses. Good luck to all.

 

[southbeachrat]

Forgot to add that we will break 1380 on the way down on the open tomorrow.
I don't know where it will stop on the way down...What is the next support? I'm too dizzy to look.

 

[nnuut]

Forgot to add that we will break 1380 on the way down on the open tomorrow.
I don't know where it will stop on the way down...What is the next support? I'm too dizzy to look.

The S&P already has broken 1380 in after hours trading due to REALLY BAD NUMBERS submitted by INTEL after the bell! NOT GOOD!

January 15, 2008, 4:23 pm
Update: Soft Intel numbers thump chip stocks

Intel (INTC) shares sold off again after the big semiconductor company offered the market another bit of dour news late Tuesday. Intel said it made $2.3 billion, or 38 cents a share, for the fourth quarter ended Dec. 31. That’s up sharply from the year-ago $1.5 billion, or 26 cents a share, and, excluding restructuring charges, in line with the Wall Street analyst consensus estimate. Revenue rose 11 percent from a year ago to $10.7 billion, though - missing the Wall Street target. The company pointed to its record quarterly revenue and its sharp rise in gross margin, which surged to 58 percent from just under 50 percent a year ago. But investors sold the stock en masse after Intel said it expects its first-quarter revenue to come in at between $9.4 billion and $10 billion, compared with a $10 billion Wall Street estimate. [MORE] http://dailybriefing.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2008/01/15/soft-numbers-thump-intel-stock/

 

[southbeachrat]

I have a feeling we will see one more day of the selloff - then capitulation. We're seeing enough bearishness in my opinion to be near the bottom, not quite there , but almost. I'm counting on a drop to 1300 on the S&P and some combination of good news coming from Bernanke and Bush. It's getting mighty tempting to go back in and test the waters, I just don't want to be too impatient.

If tomorrrow is another selloff, then I may try to by back in just a bit. I will reassess tomorrow and hopefully will see enough of a selloff before the noon cutoff. I'm 100 % G at the moment , and will probably go 50% G 50% C IF it is bloody enough before the cutoff. I want to see the bulls completely give up first. A bounce back immediately will not convince me.

My only concern is that I am trying to time the bottom, which nobody can do with certainty. I am willing to go back in and see a little more of a drop before we see a nice bounce back up. The bounce may be temporary, but it's due.

That's my plan, maybe not a great one...but it's a plan.

 

[southbeachrat]

Well I have reached the area where I would like to start buying back in. I marked 1275 on the S&P as the point to start nibbling back in. Going 75% G,
15% C, 10% I.
We still may go lower but want to position myself intermediate-term for a recovery.

 

[southbeachrat]

WOW! Talk about volatility. More than a 600 pt swing in the DJIA in a day is scary. I still think we are in for some wild swings for at least the next couple of weeks.
My plan is in place. I will remain patient and continue to DCA back in as the market improves. Under the old rules I probably would have tried to time my IFT today with more of a bite back into stocks again. I will act from here on in as if the new rules are in effect and limit my IFT's to the two per month and keep the move to G as a stop if needed. Let's hope that this is the intermediate bottom. I feel that 1270 on the S&P is now a good support level. If it gets above 1380 and holds next week, I intend to move a little more into stocks. Something like 50G, 25C, 25I. I guess that would be just before or after the next meeting. I will probably wait until after because I don't want to be in the way if the fed disappoints. That's my plan at the moment. Let's hope the market cooperates.

Good luck to all and I hope u all made some of it back today and tomorrow.

 

[southbeachrat]

Not as much volatility today and my first day back in stocks was positive. (about time) I'm not counting my money yet, as I expect a profit taking day tomorrow. My plan is in place and I expect next week to be less volatile and consolidate in anticipation of the next fed meeting and more earnings reports. I will remain 70 G 15C 10 I - until I see more of an uptrend and optimism. Glad to see more people making progress in the market. I don't expect too much positive reaction to the Bush incentive plan, not from the wall street crowd anyway. Typical shallow political move in an election year. IMHO it will not work and all will see through it...

I still am hopeful and watching for a positive earnings season. That will dictate my next moves. Let's hope for the best over the next few weeks. I sure would like to put more TSP money to work and be able to sleep at the same time.

 

[southbeachrat]

Not really comfortable being in stocks going into the fed meeting. Understand that I don't endorse or care what they do, but rest assured their actions will move the markets. I just want to be on the right side of the trade. I am currently 75% G and will hold at that position. If they disappoint with less than 50 basis pts then I won't be knocked back too far with a less aggressive allocation.
I am still waitng on key earnings reports and GOOG this friday is key in my strategy. If GOOG comes in under expectations I will move to the sidelines and wait for another signal. If they do well and the markets respond to the upside, then I will dca a little more to stocks.

Under the old rules I would normally move all to the G and reallocate after the decision. I have decided to limit myself at this time to the new rules.

 

[southbeachrat]

Let's not forget that this is a marathon and not a sprint. In the end or even next week we will forget what happens tomorrow. The effects will matter 6 months or more from now. I'm positioned to benefit from any gains and insulate myself from any downside. I no longer look for the big kill, slow and steady is my new mantra. The new rules laid down by the TSP board dictate my future moves. I guess I have to play the game.. I don't have to agree with it.

The fed will cut 50 basis points and the market short term will be satisfied. Next week is a new game.