southbeachrat's Account Talk

[southbeachrat]

Hello group,
I've been lurking for a few weeks. I'm starting off the new year with 100% S COB 12/29/06.

 

[southbeachrat]

Re: southbeachrat's account talk

Currently 50% I 50% G. I'm skittish about stocks at the moment (like most of us) and almost moved it all to G today. I feel the market is fairly overbought and drifting. The dollar seems to be holding but I don't believe it will hold if oil breaks $60. I'll try my 50% in the I for one more day and see what happens.

I'm learning a lot from all of your posts. Thanks for all of your input.

Beachrat

 

[southbeachrat]

Re: southbeachrat's account talk

I will stay in stocks for tomorrow hoping for a bounce in the I fund. I think the dollar will fall and oil will rebound.

Don't know if I will be in stocks for Wed and Thur. I think the market is drifting so much that Bernakes' remarks could be the impetus for the expected correction. I expect he will be bearish in his remarks reference inflation for the future. Everyone seems to be hanging on any clue to anticipate when to bail out of stocks. I'm cautious right now.

Just my opinion...

 

[southbeachrat]

Re: southbeachrat's account talk

I'm Glad to see I fund rebound and the positive move in the USM. It will help my last two session losses if it holds today. I am moving to 50% G and 50% F and will wait for the reactions to Bernankes remarks tomorrow.

I still believe there will be a breather in the US markets soon and remain cautious. We'll see...:worried:

 

[southbeachrat]

Re: southbeachrat's account talk

11:20 am and all is nice and warm and green. I'm glad everyone is doing well. Even the F fund has a little pop. I hope no wet towels get thrown on the party by the feds. :worried:

Don't look down folks.. it's a long way to fall. I'm already too dizzy.

Currently 50% F 50% G moving to the pad today ..100% G.

 

[southbeachrat]

Re: southbeachrat's account talk

Wow what a week! As much as I would like to stay in the I fund for Monday.. I have moved to the G fund. I will be out of range on Monday and can't assume that Tuesday will be ok to stay in also. ( I'll be on a long flight and no way to IFT). I'll lick my wounds and come back to fight next week. I think there will be more volatility. FWIW ...since I'll be out of the I fund for Monday, that is a guarantee for it to rebound..

I'll be back in the saddle on Tue.. Have a great weekend. Good luck to all..

Beachrat

 

[southbeachrat]

Re: southbeachrat's account talk

I fund is getting a bit rich. I will move back to G fund and wait for a dip.

 

[southbeachrat]

Getting humbled so far has been educational but costly. Planning on changing my strategy a bit. Not moving so much and DCA'ng a little more. Been in the G-fund most of the week and should probably stay there, but I am going 75% G and 25% I for tomorrow only. Then jump back to the G for monday's penny.

I think downward pressure on the dollar tomorrow will help the I fund. I will reassess next week on my allocation strategy and stick to a plan.

I sit on the comment sidelines too often ( I don't always feel I have much to contribute)...but learn a lot from all of your comments. Keep them coming!!

 

[southbeachrat]

Well I tried to keep my emotions out of my decisions this week and it paid off. I stayed with my plan and had an up day every day this week. I was lucky enough to be 50 G & 50 F when the drop occurred on Thur. Sure picked a good week to be a little more conservative.

My gut tells me to go with the S fund on Mon. and the sentiment survey is buying next week. My head and my plan tell me to go for the G penny and wait and see what happens on Monday. The I fund is out of the question for me, as I expect a China syndrome meltdown.

So it's off to the G fund for the sure penny for me. Next week should provide some good buying opportunities.

Have a nice weekend and good luck to all.

Southbeachrat

 

[Show-me]

Well done and ditto!

 

[southbeachrat]

Spreading it around slower than usual. Currently:
G-20%
C- 30%
S - 20%
I - 30%

Oil concerns me. China talks with US? Narrowing Bollinger Bands on the S&P. Ebb Chart out of stocks tomorrow. All seem to point to a change of winds. I will be careful by the end of the week. Hoping to makes some gains before putting some back into the G. Slowly trying to claw my way out of the basement. Still way down from where I want to be, but the good news is improvement for the last 4 weeks.

Progress not Perfection.

 

[southbeachrat]

I will try for a bounce in the I fund after last nights drop. It did not do what I expected. I thought the drop would be more dramatic but everyone seems to be shrugging it off. I won't go in full although my gut tells me to.

Currently 20 G, 15 C, 15 S, 50 I.

 

[southbeachrat]

I'll take the small profits and go for the penny on Friday. I hope to have a better June. 100% G.

 

[southbeachrat]

Well June was just as bad as May for me. Still at the bottom of the barrell. My only consolation is that I'm doing much better in my brokerage account. Seems I'm better at picking individual stocks than picking the right basket of stocks.

Pulling back to 70% G, 30% C. I wil be on vacation next week but will still watch from a distance.

The iphone goes on sale today at 6pm edt. I have to finish my daily chores and get ready to wait in line with the rest of the iphreaks... I have to support one of my top holdings at the moment with the profits I made.

Have a nice weekend and good luck to all.

 

[southbeachrat]

I usually go with my first decision and rarely change my mind easily. After yesterdays profits I stayed with the I fund today for the "no-Brainer". Doesn't look like it will be profitable with the -FV. We'll see how it plays.

I automatically decided to go to the G fund for Monday. I don't think I am alone in changing my mind to the I fund instead. I have a lot of faith in the ebbtracker and that was influential in my decision. Hope it works out. Good luck to all and have a great weekend.

 

[southbeachrat]

Wow, what a week so far! I haven't contributed to the board since August except for my IFT's. Well I guess I have something to say...

I know a dying quail when I see it. The market is talking to me and I am finally listening to it, not to everyone else. This year has been a learning experience to me as far as my TSP account is concerned. My record so far has not much to brag about, but that is not the point. I have maintained a position on the weekly account tally on the last page for just about the whole year. (+2.7% so far to date). That's not so good, but I am not ashamed of it. I attribute some of my poor success to the inability to adjust to the limits of the TSP system. i.e The noon limit, unfair fv, etc. I make no excuses but the limitations were there for me. I have done much better in my brokerage accounts, where there are no such limits, and I have the ability to access a better variety of funds and can short stocks, etc.

That said.. I think that it is the time to be protective of the assets that I do have. I am moving into CP mode and am not coming out until this market is extremely oversold. I will not buy a single thing until that happens. I have never been so bearish on the market, and usually reserve such a position to when I am in a "revenge trading" mood. That is not the case now, in fact, I have done pretty well over the past week. I see nothing but a lot of people repositioning to be in a defensive position at the moment. I think I will follow that until the mood changes.

I am not looking to make money at the moment, just survive this crazy market.

Good luck to all in your trading. I wish nothing but the best for all. I will return next year with my powder dry and will live to trade again..

P.S. I will contribute more in the future and thank all of the frequent posters ( you know who you are) for helping me to learn along the way. I haven't missed a day on this board since I joined.

southbeachrat (Glenn)

 

[southbeachrat]

Happy New Year to all on the board. This marks my 1st anniversary as a member of the board and it has been an interesting year and education for me. Thanks to all who contribute here.

Despite the limitations being pressed upon us by the TSP board, this forum will continue to be a source of ideas and ways to improve our returns. I only hope we can succeed in fending off their attempt to control our right to manage our own money. I have done what I can on a personal level and thank all of the collective efforts to fight back.

I'm starting off the year 100% G. This will be an interesting year once again. Good luck to all.

southbeachrat

 

[southbeachrat]

I am expecting a bounce on trading day #2. Unfortunately I missed the noon cutoff for my first IFT of the year. Soooo.. Early IFT for Friday to stocks. 70% C 30% S. I plan on swinging there over the weekend and will decide my next move early next week. My strategy this year will lean more to the sentiment survey concept. I will try longer swing trades in anticipation of the trade limits that probably will restrict us by April. My IFT will be a day later than I had planned, but it gives me more wiggle room to consider other indicators. I am hoping to allow more of a time horizon on each trade to smooth out the volatility that I do expect.

It's a plan...maybe not a great plan, but it's my plan.

 

[southbeachrat]

S&P hopefully finding a bottom here. I will stick with my 70% C 30% S allocation for now. Jobs report sure put a whammy on the market. In retrospect, patience until Monday would have been prudent. However I am still confident in my plan to be somewhat of a contrarian right now.

I believe we are oversold here and want to stay fully in stocks for a bounce next week. Just my opinion. Any news or appearances by Fed members next week will surely be watched closely. Here we go again trying to anticipate the Fed move for Jan 28 meeting. I am expecting a 50 point basis cut at this point. Any other opinions??? Also, does anyone know of any scheduled speeches by Fed members next week?

 

[RunningFool]

I just wonder if the rate cuts are having a diminishing affect. They can only cut so much then what? They become pointless at some point and are just a smoke screen to try and sway the masses into believing that things will get better if they cut enough but not really addressing the real issues, whatever they are.