So, how bad could our TSP Accounts be hurt by who Bush picks to replace Greenspan?

[Birchtree]

Good history lesson

Oh that incorrigible wall of worry - it takes about 9 months for the effect of an interest rate hike (or cut) to work its way through the economy. Thus by the time one sees the effect, it is long past the event which may have caused it.

The triumph of hope over experience - I'm staying in the bull pen regardless.

Indications are that core CPI inflation probably peaked for this cycle at a year to year rate of 2.4% in February 2005. If so, that would be the lowest cyclical peak for that measure since January 1964. That could suggest that both stocks and bonds are priced attractively if, indeed, 2.4% proves to be the lowest cyclical peak in inflation in more than 40 years. We are in a new secular bull market mega trend - just not identifiable at the moment.

Bull markets do not like company, the market will do everything it can to make the majority gun shy and keep the bears from recognizing the prevailing trend. No G fund or bear cave for me - money is working full time.

 

[Wimpy]

A must see video clip...

...produced by grad students at Columbia Business School. After you pick yourself up off the floor and finsish wiping the tears from your face, you will play it again!

****Caution****: Best played on highspeed internet connections...dialup takes a little over an hour to load.

Click on the link:

http://www0.gsb.columbia.edu/students/organizations/follies/media/EveryBreath.wmv

 

[Show-me]

Re: So, how bad could our TSP Accounts be hurt by who Doofus picks to replace Greenspan?

Good one Wimpy! lol

 

[robo]

Re: So, how bad could our TSP Accounts be hurt by who Doofus picks to replace Greenspan?

Wimpy,

Excellent!!!! Thanks for sharing.

 

[rokid]

Re: So, how bad could our TSP Accounts be hurt by who Doofus picks to replace Greenspan?

Wimpy,

Yes! Excellent!:nuts:

 

[Birchtree]

Re: So, how bad could our TSP Accounts be hurt by who Doofus picks to replace Greenspan?

Saw it yesterday on CNBC - not that impressed - sorry. There is also an internet movie going around on college campuses regarding a revisionist look at 911. Some people are plain idiots. OK, Whimpy I'm left wide open for your rebuttal.

 

[Wimpy]

Re: So, how bad could our TSP Accounts be hurt by who Doofus picks to replace Greenspan?

Saw it yesterday on CNBC - not that impressed - sorry. There is also an internet movie going around on college campuses regarding a revisionist look at 911. Some people are plain idiots. OK, Whimpy I'm left wide open for your rebuttal.

Yaaawwwnnn

 

[Birchtree]

Re: So, how bad could our TSP Accounts be hurt by who Doofus picks to replace Greenspan?

Thanks guy.

Money flows on 4/28/06 were approx $4 billion to international equities $1billion out of U.S.

 

[Show-me]

Re: So, how bad could our TSP Accounts be hurt by who Doofus picks to replace Greenspan?

Thanks guy.

Money flows on 4/28/06 were approx $4 billion to international equities $1billion out of U.S.

And how is that good for the C fund? Had to take a shot at it. Sounds like a mass exodus out of both USD and equities.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: So, how bad could our TSP Accounts be hurt by who Doofus picks to replace Greenspan?

Showme,

You shop where there is no crowd - you buy stuff no one else wants. And then you wait and wait and wait some more. And when you finally realize that you are on the path to nowhere the Chinese will arrive and beg you to sell them your stuff. But you don't sell to the first group - at least not everything, because they will be arriving for a long time into the future. The Nikkei based for 15 years and placed 4 bottoms before the momentum to the upside was established. I bought originally in July'02 when no one was looking - sly guy that I am. And now I have plenty of company and will eventually start peeling some off the top - but I'm in no hurry - not ready to look the gift horse in the mouth so to speak. In the meantime I spend my time waiting and waiting collecting wall flowers - paid $14.07 previously and my last purchase was at $14.31. 40% of the SPX components generate their earnings from significant export activity - they aren't complaing about a weak dollar. Only tourists will complain. But the dollar is on parity with the yaun. Everywhere you look this summer you will see someone from Europe or Japan or Hong Kong or Korea all coming to your midwest.

 

[robo]

Re: So, how bad could our TSP Accounts be hurt by who Doofus picks to replace Greenspan?

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke -- via CNBC's Maria Bartiromo -- managed to shock the financial markets into a pullback this afternoon.

Maria Bartiromo should be investaged by the SEC for those comments at the close.

Come on Ben!!!!! What's next?

Bernanke comments cool off markets:
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/CNBC/Dispatch/060501markets.aspx

 

[Show-me]

Re: So, how bad could our TSP Accounts be hurt by who Doofus picks to replace Greenspan?

Big Bird is on the loose everyone to the bunker.:nuts:

 

[Wimpy]

Re: So, how bad could our TSP Accounts be hurt by who Doofus picks to replace Greenspan?

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke -- via CNBC's Maria Bartiromo -- managed to shock the financial markets into a pullback this afternoon.

Maria Bartiromo should be investaged by the SEC for those comments at the close.

Come on Ben!!!!! What's next?

Bernanke comments cool off markets:
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/CNBC/Dispatch/060501markets.aspx

The markets didn't misunderstand Bernanke's original remarks. Bernanke wanted the dollar to fall, but he just didn't want to see it go into a F R E Efall.

 

[Wimpy]

Re: So, how bad could our TSP Accounts be hurt by who Doofus picks to replace Greenspan?

Higher Interest Rates Won't Help the Dollar

Peter Schiff​

​

As U.S. inflation is beginning to be taken a bit more seriously, the dollar has found some temporary support as traders anticipate higher interest rates from a more aggressive Fed. Ironically, foreign investors attracted to the higher yields will be stung by the declining value of the dollar which must result from higher inflation. (See my commentary of April 6th 2005 "Hello, Inflation is not Good for the Dollar" available here.) Therefore, even if in the short term higher rates may buy the dollar some time, in the long run the dollar will buy much less. However, even if we were to ignore inflation's impact on foreign exchange, the investment logic itself is flawed as it does not factor in the U.S. economy's vulnerability to higher interest rates.

To be viewed as bullish for the dollar, inflation is operative only when one believes that the Fed is firmly committed to fighting it. Lost in translation is the fact that the Fed's anti-inflationary rhetoric may be just that - rhetorical. While bad news for savers and investors, higher inflation is actually the government's best friend and is the most politically expedient way to resolve America's economic imbalances and reduce the real burden of repaying its own debts.

When higher interest rates really start to take their toll on consumer spending and home prices, the Fed will either do an about face and start cutting rates in a desperate attempt to revive the economy, or it will continue to raise them, deliberately pushing the economy deeper into recession. Both scenarios are bearish for the dollar, and it is only a matter of time before the market figures this out.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/schiff052606.html

 

[Quips]

Re: So, how bad could our TSP Accounts be hurt by who Doofus picks to replace Greenspan?

Bernanke is playing the hand he was dealt: hundred billion dollar deficit spending in Iraq and Afganistan doesn't help economic matters here, and neither does the average American's squander of most things petro ... the Saudis are using those oil dollars to buy GOLD, and not US Treasury bonds. That puts further pressure on the dollar.

Meanwhile the American consumer would rather spend much on non-performing assets -- like a car -- and watch their money go up in fumes than to spend on other things. The cost of gasoline is way more than it was last year, and that affects ones disposible income. So there is less disposible income.

Now, if oil prices were back down to $50 a barrel, the economy would jump, interest rate hike or not. One can't blame Bernanke for that.

 

[Wimpy]

Re: So, how bad could our TSP Accounts be hurt by who Doofus picks to replace Greenspan?

Bernanke is playing the hand he was dealt...

I agree, but I'm not sure if this pseudo intellectual even knows what he is holding yet...reminds me of the short person joke...they are the last to know when it is raining...and the first to know when it is flooding...

 

[Quips]

Re: So, how bad could our TSP Accounts be hurt by who Bush picks to replace Greenspan?

So we are getting a chorus of Fed governors singing about inflation, yet the yield on I Bonds for the next six months is something like 2.5%.

Go figure.

The dollar is strengthening against the Euro, so we can expect the Union's central bank to increase its interest rates a notch. The yen is holding steady against the dollar -- yet deflation has been the problem in Japan.

It is strange that there aren't numbers for the amount of U.S. treasury bonds held by the Saudis. Maybe they just aren't publicized, but one has to hope that all our dollars for its oil isn't going into Gold purchases.

I'd like to know how much of U.S. debt is held by them, and just how much they are supporting our lifestyle on one hand, and how much of that information it wants to keep from its people and other Muslims on the other.

 

[Quips]

Re: So, how bad could our TSP Accounts be hurt by who Bush picks to replace Greenspan?

The place where few live happily ever after ... and a scant amount of fairy tales come true.

Sorry Grandma.

One has to wonder when the dream will end and reality begins. When will America realize that tax cuts and government programs conflict with reality? Oh well, there is still the best government money can buy!

The chorus of Fed governors recently crooning about inflation was very interesting.

Were they worried about inflation ... really?

Or were they scared about the run up in the price of gold?

That run up in the gold price is just a sign that the Fed's policies just aren't working. And my oh my, a chorus of governors have intimidated the equity markets, but less than they have jawed down the price of gold.

The central bankers integrity is at stake, yet how much has gold spiked to debunk that -- virtual -- intregity!

It is yet to be seen if central bankers WORLDWIDE can jaw down the price of gold!

If central bankers WORLDWIDE can convince Saudis and Russians to buy (more) U.S. treasury debt instead of gold with all the U.S. dollars used to purchase their oil, then perhaps the silent, obedient, middle class public will have a chance.

If not, they will turn on each other.

Time will tell.

 

[Quips]

Re: So, how bad could our TSP Accounts be hurt by who Bush picks to replace Greenspan?

The only thing that has changed over the course of the past nine months is the price of gold really.

Oil prices were as high at the end of August, beginning of September 2005.

Seems like the Fed and central bankers worldwide are using the price of gold and other commodities as its measure of inflation.

So, if that is the case, then a type of gold standard -- although indirect -- is being attempted to set interest rates.

Yet how can I bonds now pay 2.5% for six months? That doesn't make sense to me.

 

[FundSurfer]

Re: So, how bad could our TSP Accounts be hurt by who Bush picks to replace Greenspan?

I liked the old title of this thread better....