So, how bad could our TSP Accounts be hurt by who Bush picks to replace Greenspan?

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It's only 3 months away.

It would be par for the course for him to name his brother Neil of Silverado fame.
 
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Please, it is President Doofus.

Word is that it is narrowed down to:

a) Donald Trump

b) the CEO of Exxon-Mobil

c) Buffalo Bill Cody

d) King Faud

e) Arthur Levitt
 
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If he named Bernanke I would not be the least surprised. He is considered a 'Team Player' and seems quite willing to keep the liquidity pumping. I think he was the onewho mentioned a willingness todrop money out of helicopters, if need be, to keep the economy vibrant. That would not portend well for the dollar in the long term, but it would probably improve the balance sheet as far as the triple deficits go. And, as far out of balance as the triple deficits are that means the dollar has a very long way to go down. Some are saying the dollar may go to the low50s on the USDX before the deficits are reined in. The 64 million dollar question is whether the dollar will grind down slowly or drop very quickly. The answer to that question may depend largely on foreign central bank's willingness to hold and continue purchasing dollars at the same tempo they have in the past. Those foreign central banks are going to be faced with the uneviablechoice of continuing to support the dollar destined to be devalued andkeep their exports flowing to the U.S. or choosing tounass their dollarpositions slowly and gradually, yet before everyone else does,andtake the risk their remaining dollar holdings will be worth even less. If these foreign governements are smart they will diversify their customer base away from the U.S. consumer and be potentiallyless vulnerable to aworldwideU.S. dollar dump or devaluation. Anyway, I'm starting to get more and more of those 0% credit card offers in the mail for balance transfers and purchases good through January of 2007. I'd say the Bernankehelicopters are not too far off in the distance...wap...wap...wap...wap.
 
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I apologize. I really didn't answer the topic question.

I believe interests rates will continue to go up in an attempt to keep the foreign investors and central banks on board. Those rates will have to go up a lot. Probably much higher than they did in the early eighties if they are successful in keeping the foreign investors playing ball with them. That won't be good for real estate or the C or S fund. And the G fund will be losing its purchasing power on the interest rate climb. Once those rates top out possibly in the 25-30 per cent range or maybe higher,a split between theF and Gfund would be a good place to be.

Too bad we don't have a TSP fund that locks in a long term Treasury ratefor 10 years or so. If a person had a hundred grand in the TSPknocking out 30 per cent interest a year for ten years after interest rates topped...oh...my...oh...my.

While the dollar continues dropping to the point interest rates top out, the I Fund should provide the best overall returns, in my opinion, as the I Fund tends to have an inverse relationship to the dollar. Yes, the dollar will have a few dead cat bounces along the way that might give the C and S fund a temporary reprieve, but the trend is down for the dollar. There will come a point in the dollar's decline that I will quit trading between the G and I Fundand simplyhold on firmly to the I Fund. Once the dollar dumping begins in earnest trading the TSP funds will not be a good idea because of trade execution lag time. If we had real time trades and stayed glued to the monitor all day...possibly...but it wouldn't be my style.
 
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Wimpy wrote:
If he named Bernanke I would not be the least surprised. He is considered a 'Team Player' and seems quite willing to keep the liquidity pumping. I think he was the onewho mentioned a willingness todrop money out of helicopters, if need be, to keep the economy vibrant. That would not portend well for the dollar in the long term, but it would probably improve the balance sheet as far as the triple deficits go. And, as far out of balance as the triple deficits are that means the dollar has a very long way to go down. Some are saying the dollar may go to the low50s on the USDX before the deficits are reined in. The 64 million dollar question is whether the dollar will grind down slowly or drop very quickly. The answer to that question may depend largely on foreign central bank's willingness to hold and continue purchasing dollars at the same tempo they have in the past. Those foreign central banks are going to be faced with the uneviablechoice of continuing to support the dollar destined to be devalued andkeep their exports flowing to the U.S. or choosing tounass their dollarpositions slowly and gradually, yet before everyone else does,andtake the risk their remaining dollar holdings will be worth even less. If these foreign governements are smart they will diversify their customer base away from the U.S. consumer and be potentiallyless vulnerable to aworldwideU.S. dollar dump or devaluation. Anyway, I'm starting to get more and more of those 0% credit card offers in the mail for balance transfers and purchases good through January of 2007. I'd say the Bernankehelicopters are not too far off in the distance...wap...wap...wap...wap.
Well, the one thing that is for sure, the more liquidation, the higher the inflation...interest rates will keep going and going and ......:^:^:^

Greenspuds replacement is a rather tiring thought.....what will happen to the stock market when they do announce his replacement....I don't think it will matter who replaces him....we're going :U:U:U....just take alook around you and say, yes yes yes we have a vibrant economy....!!:l:l:l What a joke.....it will be the average working stiff who gets it.....those invested properly will do ok....

well we got ourselves into this mess, you can thank yourselves and your congressmen....its gonna hurt for 60 years....:?

See their take on the replacement...

http://money.cnn.com/2005/10/17/markets/stocks_newfedchair/index.htm



:dude:
 
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will be the average working stiff who gets it.....those invested properly will do ok....

Wanna bet? If What I read is correct, the so called smart money is Bullish while the "dumb money ( that is my crowd)" has been bearish since March. Guess, precisely because of this new read, I feel may be it is time to move to cash. Smart money is often too smart for its own good. But the Poetic justice is that theworking stiff does not have much market exposure. As that song goes "freedom is another word for nothing left to lose"
 
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Will Greenspan leave a mess? I think not. This is his legacy,,,he will want to leave with the economy heading up and interest rate increases done. Any "Geenspeak" in his final few months will be positive going forward....and the stock market will rally...at least until he leaves office.
 
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Ha! As John Mauldin said recently, Hillary is the only person ever to make a quick fortune in commodity futures and then just walk away and never trade again. Must not have been challenging enough for her. Strangely enough,thefinancial marketsstill challenge her friend and fellow inside trader George Soros, whose intellectual capacitydwarfs Hillary's. Just read Soros' The Alchemy of Finance alongside Hillary's It Takes a Village (Idiot) if you need proof.

Anyone who knows anything about the futures markets knowsHillary'swinning streakwasn'tpossible to do...legally.



Birchtree wrote:
How about one of Hillary's buddies from Refco? They did well for her-remember.
 
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I don't think Greenspud will have a choice on how long the interest rates will need to be increased. If you look closely, the money machine will determine this since it determines the inflationary atmosphere we are currently under....M3 is the big power right now and itmay drop the deifcit but we pay in other areas for it....

As they say, you may only squeeze so much out of.....and so forth....its just where you squeeze and how much is the key....

Personally, this economic expansion globally has really destabilized us at home to the point of everyone going broke.......we went too far too fast and nobody thought about the end result.

The key at home will be who can afford to take on the assets here at home as the households that do go under let them go.....stay tuned, its coming your way some day soon....

:dude:
 
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The Technician wrote:
The key at home will be who can afford to take on the assets here at home as the households that do go under let them go.....stay tuned, its coming your way some day soon....

:dude:


Technician, you are exactly correct. Investors are continually'on the hunt' for asset bargainswhile consumers are continually 'on the hunt' forconsumer bargains. We all, as consumers andto one degree or another,should attempt to buy and consume those products which give us the best bang for our buck, but many are out there buying 'things' they don't really need with money, or some semblance of money, that they don't reallyhave.

And this key distinction between investors and consumers is what is NOT captured by by the CPI (Consumer Price Index). If they had an IPI or API (Investors Price Index or Asset Price Index)it would much more accuratelyreflect current inflationary trendsand counterthe current speil from government economists who are saying inflation is low and in control.

Those with the consumerist mindset will soon lose their ass-ets to those who have a healthier appreciation for investor value. The Chinese, as investors, are already unloading dollars to buy assets in Canada, Africa, and South America. It is very ironic that China, considered a communist country,is building relations with other countries through trade and actually taking on attributes of being capitalistic, even if somewhat authoritarian, while the U.S. has taken on a moremilitaristic and destructive approach to swaying world opinion. Has the U.S. and China traded places? And will the U.S. dollar remain the world's reserve currency? Yes and no, respectively.
 
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With Bubble Ben Bernanke (BBB) at the helm of the FED there are going to be some surprises in store for those who think accommodative monetary policy ONLY comes with a lowering of interest rates. The 25 basis point ‘measured’ increases are accommodative in my opinion and represent a rather loose monetary policy, to say the least.

The holders of our foreign debt did their homework on all the FED candidates and had contingency plans based on each potential outcome. They know BBB well. He doesn’t equivocate. The dollar’s latest down turn is evidence of them doing their homework. They (foreign central banks) are holding massive amounts of U.S. dollars and they are now faced with a FED chairman who seems quite willing to significantly devalue the dollar, of which they (foreign central banks) are holding massive amounts, to keep the U.S. economy vibrant. Not a good time to be holding dollars in my opinion. They (foreign central banks) want out of their dollar positions and will take every opportunity to unload dollars on any bounce. When the dollar quits bouncing, they will all stampede for the exits at the same time.

I could see Greenspan possibly playing the part of Scrooge and taking one for the TEAM this Holiday Season and going for a 50 basis point increase or two between now and the time BBB takes over. This will give the dollar a boost and foreign central banks another opportunity to unload a portion of their dollar positions. Greenspan will leave office appearing to be somewhat fiscally responsible even if it was just a short 5 yard sprint at the end of the last lap with the Wall Street gang pelting him with rocks all the way to the finish line. This will give BBB some orchestrated maneuvering room to immediately lower rates, very temporarily, and kiss and make up to the boyz on Wall Street. He will be a hero…for about a month or so…with the Wall Street crowd rallying around him and singing his praises. This will seemingly get him started off on the right foot. The tempo of foreign dollar dumping, however, will pick up. BBB will respond with ‘measured’ rate increases, but it won’t have the same influence it did under Greenspan’s helm. The dollar dumping will continue unabated even in the face of 50, 100, 150, and 200 basis point increases.

With all of BBBs credentials and education he still has one final lesson to learn about fiat currency. The LESSON: The FED, with a loose monetary policy, can provide an ample supply[/i] of currency, but it has ZERO control, ultimately, over the demand[/i] for this currency.

Inflation-1923.jpg




(Inflation 1923-24: A woman in Germany feeds her tiled stove with money. The money is worth less than firewood.)
 
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Greenspan is being way overrated lately. His proof of his policies' effectiveness won't be apparent for some time to come. For sure those policies haven't been given a hard test.

His policies and its successes seem to me bea result of the central banks of our trading partners that have absorbed a ocean of American IOUs continue to hold it.

One would think that with so much debt out there the American dollar would weaken drastically, but that hasn't happened. I guess there are more buyers and holders of ourdebt than sellers.

It is interesting that Paul Volker didn't face the same challenges as Greenspan. It is hard for me to believe that sound economics have changed that much in 25 years. 25 years ago the government made a serious effort to balance its budget; now any effort to do so seems incredulous. And the dollar is still holding its own against the currencies of our trading partners despite that.It seems the latter has more faith in our economic and governmental system now than Volker and company had in it back then or the system's economic base has changed to make a mute point of that strategy, e.g.foreign central banksowned us then less than now. The trend in America is much more service based -- rather than manufacturing -- than it used to be.

That transition and its effect on GDP has got to huge for such a fiscal and economic change to take place.
 
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It is going to be very interesting to watch what happens to the dollar on the USDX. It keeps bumping its head around 90.50 and can't seem to break through upper resistance. It has done this about a half a dozen times. Normally, what doesn't break through upper resistance, after this many attempts, goes down. I'm betting is goes down and pretty hard.
 
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I suppose the stakes are higher/the risks are greaterwhen an industrial/smokestake economy and nation's debt is carried by its trading partners than it is for a service economy.

I have no facts to back that up with, but comparisons are out there: how much foreign debt and opposed to investment does China have; the same could be said for other emerging economies, i.e. Brazil. Perhaps many of those economies are now more energy dependent as a means of generating its industrial capacity; with the US it seems more of that energy is diverted to utilities ... which everybody everywhere has to some extend ... and transportation.

It would be some trick to see the American currency weaken without inducing inflation. Maybe that's the Fed's goal seeing that the nation's fiscal and economic policy is undisciplined and burdened with a growth based on tremendous debt.
 
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Quips wrote:
It would be some trick to see the American currency weaken without inducing inflation.


I think the questionable manner in which government economists are measuring inflation is beginning to filter down to JoeSixPack and SuzieSUV. There is economic theory and then there is reality…that place where the rubber actually meets the road.

Joe and Suzie can’t discount the cost of food, housing, and energy as easily as politically influenced government economists can. When Joe and Suzie are stuffing 80-100 dollars in those gas tanks on one fill-up they aren’t buying the low inflation spiel. If they were actually paying cash for their gas it would be one thing, but most are using a credit card that they DON’T pay off at the end of the month. These people are using revolving credit for day to day budgetary items. What are Joe and Suzie going to do when the credit card companies turn off the money spigot? And these are the people who are going to take the DOW to 13,000, 20,000, or 30,000? Not in this lifetime!

The only thread holding this economyslightly beyond the reach of the grim reaper is debt and that thread is looking a tad bit frayed.



 
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Wimpy wrote:
When Joe and Suzie are stuffing 80-100 dollars in those gas tanks on one fill-up they aren’t buying the low inflation spiel.

Why do I keep hearing this nonsense repeated everywhere? Let's cut the BS for a moment. Nobody is paying $100 to fill up their tank. Even at $3 per gallon, $100 is over 33 gallons. If your vehicle is so absurdly HUGE that it has a 35 gallon tank, then you have NO business complaining about the price of gas, food, or anything else. Nobody gets to cry about it costing $100 to fill up their tank, because that's just pure bullpuckey.
 
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Wimp:

Some say that higher gasoline prices are more of a tax than anything else; Bob Brinker is one of them. He has said that economic conditions are very different now than in the 1970's when oil price increases led to a greater rate of inflation.

How something that was once inflationary is now seen as a tax or recessionary I don't quite get; some have said that that it was a matter of demand and cost in the the 70's -- mostly cost -- while now it is a matter of supply and cost in the 2000's. I think that is just a cop out though.

Short term oil prices will have to go down if the market is to rally; but then again there will be seasonal heating fuel demands on the family budget. I think Greenspan and the FOMC will raise the overnight lending rate once again. Perhaps he wants to make it increasingly expensive for the average American to consume, and so slake any frivilous consumption based on debt ... and perhaps firing a shot over the bow of those who are a step or two over the debt line to make them sweat.

Maybe that assessment is too optimistic.
 
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Regardless of the price it takes to fill up....the fact remains that there is less profits to go around to the rest of the stock market ......the only game in town....oil.....so all the other companies who don't have a stake in essentials are rubbed off due to no profits......maybe an attempt by overseas to ruin our economy so they may prosper....but, in reality they lose too.....the average Joe Blow in this country is broke.....and can't afford to buy from anybody.....

Thats a fact.

:dude:
 
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