2/12/13
Watching the market on Monday was like watching paint dry. Volatility was low, the trading range was narrow , and volume was light, most likely due to the transportation problems in the Northeast after this weekend's snowstorm. The Dow lost 22-points.
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 152"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.0135%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.06%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.05%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.15%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.60%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 did little yesterday so there's not much here worth talking about. Looks like a bull market to me - starts in the bottom left of the chart. Ends in the top right.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The dollar's rebound off of the support near 79 is now being tested by the descending trend line, but it is actually back above the 200-day EMA. The PMO indicator also switched to a buy signal recently (for the dollar, not stocks).
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
So this is a very interesting juncture for the dollar. What would really be bullish for the stock market would be if the dollar breaks out without affecting the stocks. That might be an indication that international money was coming back heavier into U.S. investments. It's too early to say, but we'll see. The "cleanest" activity for us might be to get a pullback in the dollar and see stocks continue to move up. That's not what I necessarily want since I am in cash waiting for a pullback, but I'm not sure I am ready to wrap my head around rising stocks with a rising dollar.
There are not many indicators worth mentioning right now since most are simply slightly overbought, with no real strong signals for us. This Rydex Cash Flow Ratio is close to hitting an area that may be of some interest, but even it is not showing anything with much consistency.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
They say never short (bet against) a dull market, but they never said anything about being in cash. It will sure be nice to see a spike in volatility and a pullback so those of us on the sidelines can get another buying opportunity, but the more people that there are in this situation, the less likely the market will give us a decent chance to buy low. My 1525 target for the S&P 500 has basically been met (within 0.5%) so to me, the risk is on the upside, but fighting a strong trend is one way to miss out on big gains.
Administrative Note: The new servers are testing our patience as it is very picky about every setting and line of code. I had a problem processing Monday's share prices in the AutoTracker and that is still pending. But you can still make your IFT's.
And thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.html
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