WorkFE
Well-known member
Not for the faint of heart.
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sniper's Account Talk
- Thread starter sniper
- Start date
Not for the faint of heart.
sniper
Active member
Definitely not. The biggest challenge in my years of trading is managing my emotions, and even after 5+ years they still get the better of me sometimes. It affects me less with trading though, since we do have some form of protection with stops. TSP has none of that. In my opinion, trading 3x leveraged ETF's has been a safer journey than the TSP has (though some may disagree, it's just my own experience). At least with trading ETF's, you have the option to get out of a bad trade quickly.
sniper
Active member
Really going to be watching the 263.25 level on SPY. The Bulls don't want to give this area up and it's always been met with uber high resistance. Same with around the 280 level with the Bears.
Despite all the action it appears we're in a consolidation zone still, and once we break and hold out of either range, there's going to be a violent move up or down, what happens is anyone's guess. All I know is it's gonna be exciting
edit: Sold half SPXS position for +2.9%, riding the other half. May add to position later but I'm expecting buyers to jump in around this level. The bulls absolutely need to hold this level and won't give it up easily.
Despite all the action it appears we're in a consolidation zone still, and once we break and hold out of either range, there's going to be a violent move up or down, what happens is anyone's guess. All I know is it's gonna be exciting
edit: Sold half SPXS position for +2.9%, riding the other half. May add to position later but I'm expecting buyers to jump in around this level. The bulls absolutely need to hold this level and won't give it up easily.
Last edited:
sniper
Active member
It's looking to me like a consolidation channel, and once again the break to the downside got stonewalled at 2630. 2 reversal candles in the last 3 trading days, and lower volume today tells me that selling pressure is cooling off a bit. Put in a buy stop for SPXL (at today's high), predicting a bounce from here.
Still holding TLT (intermediate / long term play), SPXS. Expecting the SPXS to stop out tomorrow, but who knows :nuts:
sniper
Active member
Well that sucked. The up move was a gap up, which overshot my stop loss on SPXS, turning that one into a small loss rather than a small gain. To add insult to injury, the move pulled back and stopped me out of my entry today. That move erased the gains I've made this month so far, oh well 
Have to rethink the buy stop strategy when the markets are this volatile. Definitely had more success putting in buy stop orders when the market wasn't swinging this wildly.
Have to rethink the buy stop strategy when the markets are this volatile. Definitely had more success putting in buy stop orders when the market wasn't swinging this wildly.
sniper
Active member
Well so far this isn't looking pretty. The bulls know the drill, they need to hold 2630 in order to stay in the game. A close below that will be nasty. We're talking like another 10% drop nasty if this pattern holds.
What I feel is going to happen though is that we're going to do the dance around that support line for a bit. If it closes below, the buyers will step in, but not before the old support becomes resistance. Today's action is going to be crucial but I'm leaning bearish.
What I feel is going to happen though is that we're going to do the dance around that support line for a bit. If it closes below, the buyers will step in, but not before the old support becomes resistance. Today's action is going to be crucial but I'm leaning bearish.
sniper
Active member
15 min chart, some volume anomalies. Larger volume than any opening / closing volume which isn't too common. Algos setting a new consolidation range possibly? Still a big range, as TheoTrade put it, the market is like watching a heavyweight fight with both fighters throwing haymakers back and forth lol.
Attachments
Interesting. Good stuff!
sniper
Active member
Thanks, though it looks like it's not holding (at the moment). Looking at small caps and financials, they're showing continued weakness. The S&P and Nasdaq look like they're holding on for dear life, but IWM has been leading the market moves. The fact it's showing continued weakness doesn't bode well for the rest of the market.
sniper
Active member
Boom! I added to SPXS last week, and probably in hind sight maybe foolhardy since I had 66% of my portfolio in SPXS at near the end of the last trading day. I was confident in the position but 66% exposure is probably too risky (after all the mantra of trading is anything can happen, a sharp move up could have burned me bad).
Sold half of that for a 6.2% gain, good start to this week. Though I'm hoping anyone near retirement isn't getting hit by this down move, I still don't think this is close to how bad it might get.
Sold half of that for a 6.2% gain, good start to this week. Though I'm hoping anyone near retirement isn't getting hit by this down move, I still don't think this is close to how bad it might get.
sniper
Active member
Well, took a look at the chart to get some clues into what the market makers / algos are doing, but I really don't have any idea at this point. So I'm just going to hold my current positions and wait.
The arrows are intraday volume spikes which usually always sets off alarms in my head, looking like a huge effort to drop the market below 2600. Right now it looks like the line in the sand is 2,575. Not surprisingly, it looks like we're in a consolidation phase that will break either up or down depending on what the news is today. Under normal circumstances, I'd be on the bullish side, but in the current market, I'm not taking any new positions at the moment. It's literally a market where things could go either way. However, leaning bearish since it seems that there's some massive selling pressure lately (and the dominant trend in the market right now is down).
SPX 30m chart
The arrows are intraday volume spikes which usually always sets off alarms in my head, looking like a huge effort to drop the market below 2600. Right now it looks like the line in the sand is 2,575. Not surprisingly, it looks like we're in a consolidation phase that will break either up or down depending on what the news is today. Under normal circumstances, I'd be on the bullish side, but in the current market, I'm not taking any new positions at the moment. It's literally a market where things could go either way. However, leaning bearish since it seems that there's some massive selling pressure lately (and the dominant trend in the market right now is down).
SPX 30m chart
sniper
Active member
I'm not sure if that point's been hit yet, but it does seem like 'blood in the streets' is finally here. However, I'm not sure I'm ready to buy yet. You'd have to have some steel balls to catch this knife.
edit: Does look like the plunge protection team is stopping this from going below -2%, so I don't think capitulation is in yet (i'd expect it to be like 3-5% drop). However looking at the charts I have a hard time finding any bullish case. Transports (IYT) is looking especially really nasty.
sniper
Active member
In my opinion, yes. The market is like a train or oil tanker, it takes a lot of effort (volume) to shift the trend. Right now it's a speeding train down. Sure there will be a few bounces here and there, but I wouldn't get long for more than an 1-2 day trade in this market.
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