sniper's Account Talk

[sniper]

Looking to move to the F fund soon possibly. Was previously in a semi-defensive position of 65% G 35% C. Did take some pain on the way down, but it could have been a lot worse I always have something in the C fund since I'm still about 20 years away from retirement.

I usually make these moves on Mondays, since I use the weekly / monthly charts for my TSP decisions.

 

[uscfanhawaii]

Looking to move to the F fund soon possibly. Was previously in a semi-defensive position of 65% G 35% C. Did take some pain on the way down, but it could have been a lot worse I always have something in the C fund since I'm still about 20 years away from retirement.

I usually make these moves on Mondays, since I use the weekly / monthly charts for my TSP decisions.

I tried using F as a defensive move in October, thinking it would go up as the equities were tanking.
Didn’t work out too well.....F went down too!!

Good on you for staying with some equities since you have a lot of time. It’s just me, but I would stay away from F at least till the whole ‘FED messing with interest rates’ settles out. It is not behaving in any predictable fashion.

Good Luck in your investing!!

 

[sniper]

I tried using F as a defensive move in October, thinking it would go up as the equities were tanking.
Didn’t work out too well.....F went down too!!

Good on you for staying with some equities since you have a lot of time. It’s just me, but I would stay away from F at least till the whole ‘FED messing with interest rates’ settles out. It is not behaving in any predictable fashion.

Good Luck in your investing!!

Thanks! Still holding that 65%G 35%C, my system hasn't triggered to F yet so I'm staying the course. I made a vow to be much more mechanical with my moves, since fear and FOMO have gotten me into trouble in the past.

Picked up some TNA for a short-term trade (SL at -2%), markets are showing some fight in them. Financials are showing a lot of strength which is a good sign for the market. Kicking myself for seeing a decent setup with FAS on friday and not pulling the trigger this AM. Could have been a quick in & out for 3%. Oh well

 

[sniper]

Took some profits on the TNA up about 2.6% from where I bought it. Moved the stop on the rest of the position at the break even point and will let it ride wherever it goes.

XLF is nearing $27 which I see as an important point. SPY is getting close to the 200MA so I have a feeling something's happening soon. I'm leaning on the bearish side since this rally's volume doesn't have me convinced.

 

[sniper]

The half position on TNA's working. Love when the no loss position continues to work, get to wake up and drink my coffee to another nice gain

 

[sniper]

I have a feeling this is going to pull back soon

SPY / On Balance Volume


Moved up my SL on TNA to $70. Looking to buy some SPXS if SPY can't hold 280

Though honestly with the Fed announcement today, who the heck knows what's happening :nuts:

 

[sniper]

Well I'm in a weird spot. SPXS buy target hit, and TNA came within 2 cents of getting stopped out and bounced back up. Net short overall

 

[sniper]

TNA stop hit, that was a fun ride We'll see what SPXS does.

 

[sniper]

Sold half the position at +3%, letting the other half ride. SL at break even point. I have a feeling this is just a pullback before we go up, not really expecting a crazy move down. SPY at 275 should be interesting (where the 200MA is).

I do think the market will move down more from where I sold it, just following my system without breaking rules. I typically sell half at 3% gain and let the rest ride at the break even point, moving up the SL after a big gain or if i notice a trend shift. SL after initial purchases are at -2%, if i guess wrong I cut it early to avoid losing big. Not looking for home run hits with every trade, but if the outcome over time is income, that's what matters

 

[sniper]

Wow what a roller coaster of a day so far. It looks like the train tracks are getting a little shaky lol.

Still holding the SPXS shares, moved up the SL to 24.03 after yesterday's big day. Just gonna sit back and watch this movement, not looking to add a position just yet.

 

[sniper]

Bulls don't seem like they want SPY to go lower than 272, looks like a line in the sand. Whenever it dips below there, it quickly gets bought back up to 272. Will it hold or crack? I'm thinking it will, and the next resistance will be around the 270 level, we'll see.

If it does hold... Well I still need to be shown a little more to believe it's a sustained bounce. Looking at the 1-minute charts, there's a couple huge green volume spikes so we might see a short term bounce from here? Who knows, in this market 'anything can happen' has rung true for the last few weeks.

 

[sniper]

Bought some FAS near the end of the trading day. Most charts look like things I wouldn't dare touch, but financials just seem to have a mind of their own, and I feel it may have more room to the upside, we'll see. My system triggered a buy for XLF. It's times like this where I'm like 'ummm, i don't know about this', but the whole point of a system working is to stick with it

Still holding those SPXS shares but overall net long, though in this market that could change in a hurry, these whipsaws are pretty damn wild. It does feel like in the current market, there's more downside risks, I feel the long positions I've taken lately were quick in and out trades.

 

[sniper]

Woke up late and missed the market open spike, but the 2% gain mark was reached with FAS, so I sold half at a 1.6% gain, and shortly after the break even point was triggered & stopped out, so overall that play was a +0.8% gain. Just like that the FAS play is over, SPXS is still riding.

Glad I did that, my old self would have waited for it to hit +2% again and got burned. I still need to wake myself up in time especially in this volatile market, but that's hard sometimes where I live (market opens at 4:30 am )

I feel the next move in the SPY is to 270, waiting for it to hit that level before either going long or adding to short. As for now just watching.

 

[sniper]

Think this goes lower more. In my experience, descending triangles have been pretty reliable indicators. Not to mention with the low volume, it doesn't seem like there's eager buyers stepping in to buy yesterday's 'rally'. It's gotten near to that 270 mark, but I think when it reaches / breaks that level, we'll see an uptick of volume. From there we'll see.

SPY Daily 11/14 @ 12:36pm ET

 

[sniper]

Exited SPXS +11.35%, got in some SPXL at 43.21 -2%SL

That decending triangle could've been a bullish pennant, who knows :nuts:, but my moves usually follow the volume and it has a feel to the upside. But like I always say, who knows

edit: Even if this turns out to be a good play, I slapped myself for doing this. My system sets stops and allows them to get hit, I didn't do that with SXPS. Once again emotions ruled that decision, but I have gotten a little better at not doing that over time.

 

[sniper]

Already stopped out haha, that was a quick giveback. No position right now.

Another lesson learned on don't make emotional decisions, that SPXS i didn't allow to get stopped out will likely run further, also got caught looking at intraday charts which my system doesn't go after. double whammy. 2 strikes against not following the system to the T, just got a little overzealous being on a win streak lately. Market has a way of humbling you quick.

 

[sniper]

Moved to F fund

Weird day on the market today, dollar down big and markets still down? Usually when UUP is down half a percent or more, it's a sea of green.

Not holding any other positions other than TLT, which I bought on Nov 7th. Planning on holding that for the intermediate-long term (when my system says we're out of bear territory, i'm long-term bearish on this market).

 

[sniper]

SPXS buy limit triggered at $26 we'll see what happens. Price action failed to break out & hold outside of the descending triangle on pretty high volume, so I'm betting on more downside.

 

[sniper]

Sold half the shares at 6%, letting the other half ride. Hope everyone's having a good week.

 

[sniper]

lot of huge block buys in SPY right now. Smart money starting to buy into the market now?