sniper's Account Talk

[wavecoder]

I agree, expected more than just a pause; could be momentum that carried prices past resistance. Now we're headed south, will 2620 act as support?

I believe that's what will likely happen, yes. Moved to 100S on the Autotracker this am.

 

[wavecoder]

Another intraday vol spike on SPX, always a curious thing when that happens. You generally want volume to pick up when the price is coming back near a trend line / resistance poin (2626), usually means the bounce is likely (not always though, no edge in the market is 100%)

Depending what happens at 2626, may dump the spxl shares or keep em.

 

[wavecoder]

Making some good use of furlough time. A golden ale and IPA, should be ready by the super bowl

 

[wavecoder]

Loving it! Staying the course with the S fund, and still letting the SPXL shares ride. I think the S&P can run to 280 before meeting heavy resistance. Not to say there might not be some bumps along the way, but that's my target.

Bought some GRNTF shares a couple days ago. Went down 4% initially and up 12% today :nuts: For that position, I'm not following my main strategy, but one that's an algorithm based strategy I'm trying out with a small position just out of curiosity. My friend said he's been using it and averaging over 70% annual returns :O I almost want to call BS but figured I'd see what's up.

 

[wavecoder]

Does anyone know how the federal back pay works? I was told we'd get paid 75-85% this week, and the rest in the next pay period, but I got less than 75% of my net pay back, even factoring in TSP contributions. I'm trying to look up information online but can't really find any details. Anyone else know?

 

[Mcqlives]

Mine came in one lump on Thursday. It looks pretty close to what I think I should have gotten except double the normal biweekly amount. I can only say pretty close as my health insurance plan went up and I added a higher dental plan this year. They also seem to have hit me with a little higher taxes (SS was higher for some reason) than I expected but all in all it was within about $50 per biweekly check of what I was expecting.

 

[Mcqlives]

I'm curious what they are going to do with my leave. Per OPM I will have 7 days of use or lose returned. So I wonder if they will require me to use those this year or will raise the 240 ceiling. Hope it is the later.

 

[wavecoder]

Mine came in one lump on Thursday. It looks pretty close to what I think I should have gotten except double the normal biweekly amount. I can only say pretty close as my health insurance plan went up and I added a higher dental plan this year. They also seem to have hit me with a little higher taxes (SS was higher for some reason) than I expected but all in all it was within about $50 per biweekly check of what I was expecting.

Interesting, I guess diff departments handle it differently. I got 71% of my usual net pay, but without the usual contributions to the TSP so I'm a little baffled about the 75-85% I've been hearing on the web. If 0% of what I'm earning this time is going to TSP contributions, I thought I'd be getting more than usual, I guess we'll see on Feb 12th. What department do you work for? I'm with the Interior (Geological Survey)

 

[Mcqlives]

DOJ...from what I understand they just coded us as straight time, holidays included, for the two pay periods. We actually didn't to our time sheets, everything was mass processed by payroll personnel so the pay would get to us fast.

 

[wavecoder]

Question for people who do some trading / investing outside of the TSP, has your capital gains ever bumped you into the next income tax bracket? Is there a way to avoid paying the taxes in that upper bracket other than maxing out the TSP and hoping it bumps you back under? Just curious since this year or next it's a possibility that might happen.

 

[wavecoder]

Low volume doji day. Might not seem exciting but it's sometimes telling when it comes to what the market is doing. Think of volume as the level of exertion. If there's no selling pressure, a low volume day, should be a low price move. So when I see a low vol doji, it's basically saying that the opportunity was there for sellers to jump in and reverse it, and didn't (therefore, the current trend is still intact). I hear people saying the rally looks exhausted, and the price action alone may appear that way, but exhaustion moves are usually associated with HIGH volume and small / no moves. If today was a high volume day with this nonexistent price movement, then alarms would be going off. But it's not that time yet, in my opinion.

I'm still leaning bullish and holding S fund and the SPXL shares, as well as the GRNTF position. It's already been a wild ride with GRNTF, up 8% currently, but within a matter of a few days it's also at one point been down -14%. That one is the guardians of the galaxy ride at Disneyland lol :nuts:

 

[wavecoder]

Looks like the sellers stepped in, and figured we were due a pullback. Of course volume anomalies are my main trigger for curiosity in a move.

So, the question is this selling pressure picking up or the PPT at work? I'm guessing the latter since pure sell pressure with a vol spike that big should be followed by the floor disappearing. But it looks like it's fighting back. We'll see

 

[BooDog]

Watching very closely to see if support here holds. The DOW 25K line may have some gusto.

 

[wavecoder]

Watching very closely to see if support here holds. The DOW 25K line may have some gusto.

Possibly! Finally some action, the market has been a snoozer lately

 

[wavecoder]

Still a decent move down, but could have been worse. Buyers are putting in a yeoman's effort

 

[wavecoder]

Another 1.5B volume spike at 3:15pm. No idea if it's up or a reversal yet, will be watching this. Leaning on the bullish side though.

 

[wavecoder]

My TSP account probably hit 100k with today's move. 1/10 to my goal, I have 20 years to make it happen :nuts:

 

[JamesE]

Nice work!

 

[wavecoder]

Another low volume up day, so I don't see the trend changing at the moment. However, I believe we're at interesting levels right now, and wouldn't be surprised if the road got a little more shaky.

IWM is touching the 200MA, and also at the previous November high.


SPX is also near my 2800 target, and honestly I expected to see more volume and whipsaws around this point, but it's still in cruise control. Maybe soon, but I'm going to be a little more wary of potential reversal signs.


Still leaning bullish as there hasn't been any price action / volume anomalies that stick out to me. Pretty much has been a boring low-volume melt up all year, but I don't mind that. Slow and steady wins the race!

 

[wavecoder]

Took a break from trading in the last month or so, because I was house shopping. Finally bought a condo in Hawaii (gotta start somewhere, cost of living here is crazy high), and pretty stoked on it. Though the searching and then moving has been exhausting, so I haven't been looking at the market much, other than weeklies / long term outlook. Soon I'll get back to my trading routine again, maybe next month since I'll be out of country most of this month. It'll be nice to be on vacation after moving, finally get a chance to really relax

Seems like I bought at a good time, the interest rate dropped right before I pulled the trigger