sniper's Account Talk

[Bquat]

vix -8% now, this is nuts. there's gonna be a big move into the close, or early next week?

Not to be unBirchist but it may be getting ready to sling shot back up and not just a bounce. Birch did say several years back be alert when there's no fear in the market. JMHO and only my one cent.

 

[Birchtree]

Currently the VIX is at 12.46 -1.11 and can easily remain at this level if not lower for the rest of the year. As a contrarian it is always wise to keep an eye on these levels. There will be a consolidation at some point but probably not very deep by historical standards - the economy is sound. I'm open to more buoyant equity prices.

 

[sniper]

Not to be unBirchist but it may be getting ready to sling shot back up and not just a bounce. Birch did say several years back be alert when there's no fear in the market. JMHO and only my one cent.

I've been waiting to pull the trigger on TZA for almost a week now, but I held my hand until I get a reversal signal that I like. This might just be the beginning of that setup. Right now though, the charts are showing no signs of giving up yet, so my system is saying hold and not go short yet.

As for my TSP strategy, I go by the weeklies, and make my move on friday mornings. TSP is a long-term vessel so I'm going purely on long-term charts on that one, mostly to work within TSP limitations on IFT's. I probably won't ever get out right at the top, or enter right at the bottom, but the idea is to be on the same side as the trend. (and catch the trend shifts before the rest of the market is on board)

 

[sniper]

from a trading standpoint, I would be looking to sell SPY and EFA soon, they appear to be running out of steam. Small caps (IWM) are still showing strength however.

I fund (EFA) rally might be taking a breather soon, MACD Histogram on the daily looks like it's going to turn negative in the next trading day.

I'm finding it a little strange that the Dow is up .13% and the F fund is also up .13% at the same time, i usually thought those 2 sort of ran inverse to eachother (generally)

 

[sniper]

I'm still staying fully invested, but my allocation is changing to the S fund. The I fund rally looks like it's lost steam, and the S&P is also being held back by large cap tech companies / nasdaq. Russell 2000 is looking strong on both the weeklies and daily. I was close to doing this on friday (when my system makes changes), but I didn't want to waste an IFT if I was already fully invested in the market.

Now, since it's closer to the end of the month, I feel more comfortable burning my first for the month.

Small cap rally is looking powerful, looks like i may not get a buy signal for TZA until it's under $11

 

[NiteFlyer]

I'm still staying fully invested, but my allocation is changing to the S fund. The I fund rally looks like it's lost steam, and the S&P is also being held back by large cap tech companies / nasdaq. Russell 2000 is looking strong on both the weeklies and daily. I was close to doing this on friday (when my system makes changes), but I didn't want to waste an IFT if I was already fully invested in the market.

Now, since it's closer to the end of the month, I feel more comfortable burning my first for the month.

Small cap rally is looking powerful, looks like i may not get a buy signal for TZA until it's under $11

Good luck! I keep thinking the I will make one more push and the S will make a slight drop and then, at that exact moment, I'll switch over to S. The longer it takes, the more I think they will just both drop and I should have been in the S sooner.

 

[sniper]

Good luck! I keep thinking the I will make one more push and the S will make a slight drop and then, at that exact moment, I'll switch over to S. The longer it takes, the more I think they will just both drop and I should have been in the S sooner.

It might! I'm looking at EFA right now and it's fighting. I usually look at when full stochastics crosses below 80 that the rally is usually over, but in some cases it can fight back up there and keep going. The weekly chart for it still looks strong, daily MACD just crossed negative though, so I would be careful. But who knows, always that uncertainty with the stock market

my judgement call earlier was based on what the charts read 10 mins before the IFT deadline, but they're all looking more bullish than previously (all were in the red)

 

[JimmyJoe]

Good luck! I keep thinking the I will make one more push and the S will make a slight drop and then, at that exact moment, I'll switch over to S. The longer it takes, the more I think they will just both drop and I should have been in the S sooner.

If the fair value of the I fund is up today, and I think it will be because the I find went up at the very end of the day, then the I fund will go up for the next few days, pulling up the US markets. :nuts:

 

[TSP4Soccer]

If the fair value of the I fund is up today, and I think it will be because the I find went up at the very end of the day, then the I fund will go up for the next few days, pulling up the US markets. :nuts:

Hope you are right! I was thinking of pulling out of I but plan to stay put this week.

TSP4Soccer

25-G/25-S/50-I

 

[sniper]

I fund's EOD activity looks bullish but the negative MACD cross would just lift a caution flag. of course it's just barely crossed negative and can go positive if tomorrow's a green day for EFA, just an observation that's all. In any case I hope you're both right since I like seeing people make money

The NASDAQ popped about .20% in the last 15 mins, cray cray

Google reported earnings today and beat estimates. Nasdaq/S&P could see even more of a pop tomorrow

 

[sniper]

VIX is starting to climb down again, the dollar tried to go up but that was a big head fake, back down it will go

google up 6% today, the nasdaq / dow really like that.

 

[sniper]

looks like a good day for the market, but a meh day for TSP funds

 

[sniper]

Russell 2000 hits 900, b-b-b-b-booyahh!

and with that said, might be time to TZA this thing. If i were swing trading small caps I would be looking to sell soon. (VIX starting to show signs of life, looks like a shooting star on IWM, market sentiment extremely bullish for weeks, Nasdaq is not looking good and S&P has been 1 step behind it all year). We'll see what happens 15 mins from the close.

 

[sniper]

well not a resounding slam-dunk reversal signal, so instead of buying TZA shares at market EOD, I put in a buy stop 11.40 TZA.

edit: btw why is birch banned?

 

[sniper]

yesterday's hammer on TZA, showed no confirmation today so the buy stop wasn't triggered. cancelling the order and looking for another trade.

tsp system will stay in the S fund for next week

 

[sniper]

bears get out of my way or i will...

 

[Frixxxx]

edit: btw why is birch banned?

Normal reasons.......

 

[sniper]

Normal reasons.......

ah well, i hope he's back soon, he makes me laugh. i like to freakin' laugh lol.

 

[Birchtree]

Check this out good buddy. "Big stocks tend to outperform during the back half of bull markets. Bull markets are fueled by successive waves of prior skeptics finally capitulating as their fears fade. Eventually fear turns to euphoria, and that's the stuff of bybbles. We're a long way from that now." Please Mr. Custer, I want an equity asset bubble.

Fisher: Stick With Big Stocks | The Guru Investor

 

[sniper]

Check this out good buddy. "Big stocks tend to outperform during the back half of bull markets. Bull markets are fueled by successive waves of prior skeptics finally capitulating as their fears fade. Eventually fear turns to euphoria, and that's the stuff of bybbles. We're a long way from that now." Please Mr. Custer, I want an equity asset bubble.

Fisher: Stick With Big Stocks | The Guru Investor

Good stuff, thanks for the read!