8/28/12
Stocks opened higher on Monday, then bounced around before falling into the close and ending the day slightly lower. The Dow lost 33-points while the S&P 500 and small caps both gave up 0.05% each.
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return
[TABLE="width: 147"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.0100%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.14%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.05%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.05%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.21%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 moved up to test the bottom of the rising wedge again, but started to pull back from that point. Last week's pullback to the 20-day EMA was either a buying opportunity, as we saw a few other times earlier this year, or a temporary support that will be tested again soon because of the double top near 1425. Double tops tend to trigger at least temporary pullbacks before breaking out.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The market leader fell below the 200-day EMA yesterday. Falling below the 200-day EMA has not been a deal breaker for the Transportation index this year, but the failed breakout from the triangle formation does portend another move to the bottom of the triangle again.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The smart money of the OEX put/call ratio saw a freakishly high one-day put/call ratio yesterday of 5.85. This is either a misprint or the smart money became very bearish yesterday. This daily is a short-term indicator, but it also affected the 10-day moving average, which is a little longer-term.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
How freakish is a 5.85 reading? Going back to 1989, there were only 3 other readings that even reached 4.0 with one of them coming on May 1 of this year.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
A one-day reading is hard to interpret, but as I said, this is so severe that it took the more longer-term 10-day moving average indicator (see chart above this one) down to 1.86 and that is a bearish reading for the smart money.
As we come toward the end of August, we are nearing a 12-month high which has not been a very friendly formula for September. Here is a list of returns in September after August closed at a 12-month high.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
Ouch! But this will be moot if we pullback this week and don't close at a new high on Friday.
Tomorrow (Wednesday) we get another estimate of the GDP. Estimates are looking for 1.6% growth and obviously anything north or south of that number could be a market mover.
And of course the storm in the Gulf brings more uncertainty. I hope those in the surrounding areas stay safe.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.html
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks opened higher on Monday, then bounced around before falling into the close and ending the day slightly lower. The Dow lost 33-points while the S&P 500 and small caps both gave up 0.05% each.
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return
[TABLE="width: 147"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.0100%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.14%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.05%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.05%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.21%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 moved up to test the bottom of the rising wedge again, but started to pull back from that point. Last week's pullback to the 20-day EMA was either a buying opportunity, as we saw a few other times earlier this year, or a temporary support that will be tested again soon because of the double top near 1425. Double tops tend to trigger at least temporary pullbacks before breaking out.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The market leader fell below the 200-day EMA yesterday. Falling below the 200-day EMA has not been a deal breaker for the Transportation index this year, but the failed breakout from the triangle formation does portend another move to the bottom of the triangle again.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The smart money of the OEX put/call ratio saw a freakishly high one-day put/call ratio yesterday of 5.85. This is either a misprint or the smart money became very bearish yesterday. This daily is a short-term indicator, but it also affected the 10-day moving average, which is a little longer-term.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
How freakish is a 5.85 reading? Going back to 1989, there were only 3 other readings that even reached 4.0 with one of them coming on May 1 of this year.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
A one-day reading is hard to interpret, but as I said, this is so severe that it took the more longer-term 10-day moving average indicator (see chart above this one) down to 1.86 and that is a bearish reading for the smart money.
As we come toward the end of August, we are nearing a 12-month high which has not been a very friendly formula for September. Here is a list of returns in September after August closed at a 12-month high.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
Ouch! But this will be moot if we pullback this week and don't close at a new high on Friday.
Tomorrow (Wednesday) we get another estimate of the GDP. Estimates are looking for 1.6% growth and obviously anything north or south of that number could be a market mover.
And of course the storm in the Gulf brings more uncertainty. I hope those in the surrounding areas stay safe.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.html
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
