It was another mixed day for stocks on Thursday as the Dow lost 44-points (-0.24%), the Nasdaq was up (+0.37%) and the S&P 500 was down but basically flat. Volatility continues to subside despite some bad news out of Greece and a sharp intraday decline in oil - which eventually reversed.
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The I-fund continues to lead in 2015, and bonds were back on the downside.
The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) was down slightly but it closed off its lows, made a new intraday high, and remained above the key support line (old resistance) for a 4th straight day. Sideways action is not a bad thing, particularly if it holds above that breakout point. The longer it consolidates, the more it will work off the short-term overbought conditions.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Wilshire 4500 (S-fund) also made a new high yesterday but ended the day basically flat. It may be showing some fatigue, but the bears have not been able to do any damage yet.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Transportation index was having a very nice day early Thursday and broke above the resistance line we have been watching. That was the good news. The bad news was it peaked at about 11 AM and gave back all of the early gains closing back below the resistance line and creating a negative reversal day, which is not a great sign for the short-term.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Here is Thursday's intraday chart of the Dow Transports versus an Oil ETN (fund). As oil rallied, the Transports sank. Not surprising given how the the price of oil can inversely impact the bottom profits of these companies.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) was up again with the I-fund getting a decent price and a 0.52% gain on the day. How long this angle of incline can sustain itself remains to be seen, but if the dollar - which is still near recent highs but wobbling a bit - starts to fall from those highs, the I-fund would likely continue to outperform.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) could not follow through on Wednesday's Fed triggered rally in bonds. It continues to hover over some key support levels but the new formation is starting to look like a bear flag, and they tend to break down. The 50-day EMA is the immediate resistance.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
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Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
