Show-me
Well-known member
One TA thinks we go up and one thinks we go down. The market is at a pivotal point. Very risky time right now. Good luck.
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Show-me Account Talk
- Thread starter Show-me
- Start date
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One TA thinks we go up and one thinks we go down. The market is at a pivotal point. Very risky time right now. Good luck.
Hi all, I've been following this board since late May. Thanks to Show-me's, Poolman's and others threads, I've been following Inthemoneystocks.com's, LivewithOscar's and TspTalks's commentary. I'm new to this trading but this is great stuff.
It seems all three are looking at head and shoulder patterns. It seems Oscar sees that the right shoulder has already formed and we're on the way down, while Inthemoney and and Tsptalk are still cautiously anticipating a rally to start the right shoulder. Also Oscar notes the outside reversal in the Dow while Inthemoney notes we just missed it in the S&P giving Inthemoney a little more optimism.
Anyway , greatstuff and thanks all.
It seems all three are looking at head and shoulder patterns. It seems Oscar sees that the right shoulder has already formed and we're on the way down, while Inthemoney and and Tsptalk are still cautiously anticipating a rally to start the right shoulder. Also Oscar notes the outside reversal in the Dow while Inthemoney notes we just missed it in the S&P giving Inthemoney a little more optimism.
Anyway , greatstuff and thanks all.
Show-me
Well-known member
Welcome to the party! Check out Robo's stuff at the Bear Cave, very good stuff, bear and bull. Good luck!
Show-me
Well-known member
Stocks Crash, But Still Aren't Cheap. So, Steady as She Goes
Posted Jul 11, 2008 02:43pm EDT by Henry Blodget in Investing, Recession Related: ^dji, ^gspc
From Clusterstock, July 11, 2008:
The DOW dipped below 11,000 this morning for the first time in two years. Worse, the stock market has now been flat for the better part of a decade. Normally, long-term investors would be happy about such events: weakness creates an opportunity to buy cheap. Unfortunately, since stocks were so expensive to begin with, they're still not cheap.
Given the sharpness of the recent plunge and consensus that the US economy and financial system are headed for disaster, the market is due for a bounce. (It's always darkest before dawn.) But stocks are also, unfortunately, still priced to perform no better than cash over the next ten years.
In recent months (as ever), you have no doubt been bombarded with research and opinions that stocks are now cheap. Most of these opinions are probably based on standard P/E ratios or relative valuations ("low interest rates"). Most of these measures, unfortunately, are bogus. Stocks are cheaper than they were a few months ago, but they're not cheap. This chart from Andrew Smithers, a London-based strategist, tells the real story:
There are only two valuation methods that have been shown to have predictive value over long periods of market history: cylically adjusted price earnings ratios (CAPE) and "Tobin's Q." Cyclically adusted earnings ratios adjust for the business cycle by "normalizing" corporate earnings to average profit margins (as opposed to the record-high margins of recent years). Tobin's Q, meanwhile, is an estimate of business "replacement value." In the past, stocks have gravitated around these measures, often with multi-decade swings above or below the long-term average.
As Smithers' chart shows, stocks have been "expensive" on CAPE and Q measures since about 1990. Now, thanks to the market's recent collapse, they're getting back toward average levels.
If you believe these long-term averages--or corporate profit margins--have shifted permanently upwards (because of new technologies, investor intelligence, or whatever), then you might view today's stock levels as "cheap." If you don't think it's different this time, however, you will likely conclude that:
So just continue to invest your savings regularly in a diversified portfolio of low-cost index funds (stocks, bonds, cash, real estate, across as many geographies as possible). The good news is, thanks to the market's recent drop, your expected returns on the equity portion of the portfolio are higher then they were a few months ago. (And if the market falls further, they will get even better).
Posted Jul 11, 2008 02:43pm EDT by Henry Blodget in Investing, Recession Related: ^dji, ^gspc
The DOW dipped below 11,000 this morning for the first time in two years. Worse, the stock market has now been flat for the better part of a decade. Normally, long-term investors would be happy about such events: weakness creates an opportunity to buy cheap. Unfortunately, since stocks were so expensive to begin with, they're still not cheap.
Given the sharpness of the recent plunge and consensus that the US economy and financial system are headed for disaster, the market is due for a bounce. (It's always darkest before dawn.) But stocks are also, unfortunately, still priced to perform no better than cash over the next ten years.
In recent months (as ever), you have no doubt been bombarded with research and opinions that stocks are now cheap. Most of these opinions are probably based on standard P/E ratios or relative valuations ("low interest rates"). Most of these measures, unfortunately, are bogus. Stocks are cheaper than they were a few months ago, but they're not cheap. This chart from Andrew Smithers, a London-based strategist, tells the real story:
There are only two valuation methods that have been shown to have predictive value over long periods of market history: cylically adjusted price earnings ratios (CAPE) and "Tobin's Q." Cyclically adusted earnings ratios adjust for the business cycle by "normalizing" corporate earnings to average profit margins (as opposed to the record-high margins of recent years). Tobin's Q, meanwhile, is an estimate of business "replacement value." In the past, stocks have gravitated around these measures, often with multi-decade swings above or below the long-term average.
As Smithers' chart shows, stocks have been "expensive" on CAPE and Q measures since about 1990. Now, thanks to the market's recent collapse, they're getting back toward average levels.
If you believe these long-term averages--or corporate profit margins--have shifted permanently upwards (because of new technologies, investor intelligence, or whatever), then you might view today's stock levels as "cheap." If you don't think it's different this time, however, you will likely conclude that:
- the market has a lot further to fall, or
- stocks will be treading water for another decade or so.
So just continue to invest your savings regularly in a diversified portfolio of low-cost index funds (stocks, bonds, cash, real estate, across as many geographies as possible). The good news is, thanks to the market's recent drop, your expected returns on the equity portion of the portfolio are higher then they were a few months ago. (And if the market falls further, they will get even better).
Corepuncher
Well-known member
Interesting chart, although that was 120 S&P points ago so maybe the valuations are improving. If this chart was made June 8th 2008, and at that time the financials were 9.2% overvalued, that means that the financials now are about 12% undervalued since we've gone down about 21% since that date. Of course that is all relative to history, which does not necessarily predict the future!!!
What is the difference between UYG and XLF?
What is the difference between UYG and XLF?
Last edited:
Show-me
Well-known member
UYG is two time the gain and two times the pain. Leveraged to double the return.
Show-me
Well-known member
The Week Ahead
Last Update: 11-Jul-08 14:01 ET
http://www.briefing.com/GeneralCont...vestor&ArticleId=NS20080711140157LookingAhead
Second quarter earnings reporting season picks up steam in the coming week, with an abundance of widely held financial, tech and consumer staples names set to report.
Market participants will pay close attention to the results of financial companies given increased fears of inadequate capital and further write-downs. The bigger names include US Bancorp (USB), Wells Fargo (WFC), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Capital One (COF), Merrill Lynch (MER) and Citigroup (C).
Roughly 60 S&P 500 companies are confirmed to report their earnings, so there will be plenty of action outside of financials. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Intel (INTC), eBay (EBAY), Google (GOOG) and IBM (IBM) are set to announce their quarterly results.
Investors will also digest an event-filled Economic Calendar. Added attention will be focused on the PPI, CPI , retail sales and housing starts data.
Several Fed officials are scheduled to speak, the most influential of whom is Fed Chairman Bernanke who will provide his semiannual testimony on monetary policy before Senate and House committees on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. On a related note, the minutes from the June 25 FOMC meeting will be released Wednesday.
________________________________________________________________
Monday, July 14:
Last Update: 11-Jul-08 14:01 ET
http://www.briefing.com/GeneralCont...vestor&ArticleId=NS20080711140157LookingAhead
Second quarter earnings reporting season picks up steam in the coming week, with an abundance of widely held financial, tech and consumer staples names set to report.
Market participants will pay close attention to the results of financial companies given increased fears of inadequate capital and further write-downs. The bigger names include US Bancorp (USB), Wells Fargo (WFC), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Capital One (COF), Merrill Lynch (MER) and Citigroup (C).
Roughly 60 S&P 500 companies are confirmed to report their earnings, so there will be plenty of action outside of financials. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Intel (INTC), eBay (EBAY), Google (GOOG) and IBM (IBM) are set to announce their quarterly results.
Investors will also digest an event-filled Economic Calendar. Added attention will be focused on the PPI, CPI , retail sales and housing starts data.
Several Fed officials are scheduled to speak, the most influential of whom is Fed Chairman Bernanke who will provide his semiannual testimony on monetary policy before Senate and House committees on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. On a related note, the minutes from the June 25 FOMC meeting will be released Wednesday.
________________________________________________________________
Monday, July 14:
- Earnings: Genentech (DNA), Novellus Systems (NVLS)
- Economic Data: None
- Events: Fed Governors will vote on final amendments to consumer protection rules for borrowers of subprime and hybrid mortgage products (10:00 AM ET)
- Conferences: Worldwide Business Research Performance Based Logistics Conference
- Fed Speakers: None
- Earnings: Eaton (ETN), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), State Street (STT), US Bancorp (USB), Altera (ALTR), CSX Corp (CSX), Seagate Tech (STX), Intel (INTC)
- Economic Data: PPI (June)... Retail Sales (June)... Business Inventories (May)... NY Empire State Index (July)
- Events: General Electric analyst meeting
- Conferences: None
- Fed Speakers: Fed Chairman Bernanke gives semiannual testimony on monetary policy before Senate Banking Committee (10:00 AM ET)... San Francisco Fed President Yellen to speak at bank-sponsored conference on the negative effects of foreclosures (3:30 PM ET).
- Earnings: Abbott Labs (ABT), Delta Air Lines (DAL), Wells Fargo (WFC), eBay (EBAY), YUM! Brands (YUM)
- Economic Data: CPI (June)... Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production (June)... Net Foreign Purchases (May)
- Events: FOMC Minutes for June 25 Meeting... Weekly Crude Inventories (week ended July 12)
- Conferences: None
- Fed Speakers: Fed Chairman Bernanke gives his semiannual testimony on monetary policy before the House Financial Services Committee (10:00 AM ET)... Kansas City Fed President Hoenig to speak on economic policy at a luncheon (2:00 PM ET)
- Earnings: Baxter (BAX), Bank of New York (BK), BlackRock (BLK), CIT Group (CIT), Coca-Cola (KO), Harley-Davidson (HOG), Illinois Tool (ITW), Johnson Controls (JCI), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Nokia (NOK), Novartis (NVS), Nucor (NUE), United Technologies (UTX), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Capital One (COF), Gilead Sciences (GILD), Google (GOOG), IBM (IBM), Leggett & Platt (LEG), Microsoft (MSFT), Merrill Lynch (MER)
- Economic Data: Building Permits and Housing Starts (June)... Philadelphia Fed (July)... Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (week ended July 12)
- Events: None
- Conferences: IBC Life Sciences Next Generation Vaccines Conference
- Fed Speakers: None
- Earnings: Citigroup (C), Honeywell (HON), Manpower (MAN), Mattel (MAT), Schlumberger (SLB)
- Economic Data: None
- Events: Dell shareholder meeting
- Conferences: IBC Life Sciences Next Generation Vaccines Conference
- Fed Speakers: None
Show-me
Well-known member
Show-me
Well-known member
AP
Sen. Schumer defends comments on IndyMac collapse
Sunday July 13, 4:27 pm ET
By Stephen Bernard, AP Business Writer Schumer: IndyMac's failure result of lax regulation, not his recent letter about bank's woes
NEW YORK (AP) -- Sen. Charles Schumer on Sunday defended himself against claims by regulators that he was partially to blame for a run on IndyMac Bancorp Inc. that led to the bank's takeover by the government Friday.
At a news conference Sunday, the New York Democrat deflected blame cast upon him by regulators for causing a run on the bank that saw depositors withdraw more than $1.3 billion during the 11 days after Schumer released a letter about the possible risks of IndyMac failing.
Idiot.
malyla
Active member
You don't think he caused the run on the bank that put the bank in liquidity difficulty? If someone in authority hinted that your bank would fail, would you leave your money there? Now that the bank has been taken over, some depositors may lose big. There was no evidence other than Schumer's 'gut' feeling that the bank was in trouble. I agree with Showme, he is irresponsible at best (could have worked it behind the scenes and protected the people), criminal at worst.
robo
Well-known member
Yep, don't yell fire in a crowed theater either.... Many folks could head to the exits and quickly.
Show-me
Well-known member
That IS my point. Yea the banks screwed up and they know it, but if you have a headline grabbing crook politician screaming the sky is falling during a very delicate time for the bank. He should have wrote that letter about these loans months or years ago before it all fell in a pile. Just another glory grabber pointing his finger at the blood and guts while exclaiming that this is wrong. To little to late. Where was he when it could have been avoided?
They need to shut up and let this settle down.
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