Show-me Account Talk

[Show-me]

Sorry for the last minute change, but as my son sez "That's how I roll." lol

I did not like the action between the C, S, and F fund. I felt better after seeing 350z doing the same thing. The only good news was IBM and that was just not enough to make the market run like it did.

My STA was spot on with a bullish Monday before Fridays Expiration.

I am disappointed in the "bounce", but it was a bounce. The S fund showed a classic "hammer" which signals a reversal on the current trend. It was weak but on the chart it was a rally.

I'm not liking the S fund very much because of the fact it is seriously lagging and is mid and small cap stock. They feel the pain more when the economy is weak. Consumers do not shop the S&P 500 stores as much as they do the DJ Wilshire 4500 stores. That is why they have done a smoke'n job the last few years, because rates were low and the consumer flush with cash and credit.

Now on the C fund there is a "perfect" "Bearish Harami" and I pasted a explanation to follow. Now I did not know that was coming until after the close and was able to identify it. The current short term trend is up with the bounce so the Harami is signaling a down reversal.

Here is the S&P chart to look at: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p26694867262



Bearish Harami

A trend indicated by a large candlestick followed by a much smaller candlestick whose body is located within the vertical range of the larger candle's body. Such a pattern is an indication that the previous upward trend is coming to an end.

A bearish harami may be formed from a combination of a large white or black candlestick, and a smaller white or black candlestick. The smaller the second candlestick, the more likely the reversal. It is thought to be a strong sign that a trend is ending when a large white candle stick is followed by a small black candlestick.

 

[Show-me]

I will add that the S fund has a bearish Harami also, just not as perfectly centered in the prior day candlestick.

 

[Show-me]

100 C

 

[Show-me]

Kitty kitty, here I come. :nuts: If the PPT don't ride in to save the day in the next three days the Street will lynch Ben Bernanke and company. It won't do any good cuz it take 6 to 12 months to turn the economy around. Prepare for the ride of your life.

Were is my President? I need my stimulus package to include my tax rebate. That Glock is looking like a done deal. I promise to throw that money back into the economy. Really!

Not a good time to be a buy and holder, Tracy Ray. I got a pair of shorts for.

This is a short time play and will last no longer than the 50 day sma.

 

[Barney]

Headline News:
"Cats all over the world have been outfitted and supplied with parachutes from an unknown source."

View attachment 3086

 

[350zCommTech]

What are you thinking? Should we cut and run?

 

[Show-me]

We are so close to our March support it is not funny. But, we have not broke or confirmed it so it will be hard to make a call with the noon deadline.

The freak'n PPT will get hammered in the media if they don't step up soon.

Right now I feel like capitulation is happening. BTU and ACI are down 8% and 7%. All of my watchlist is down.

I do like my entry point for now. C Fund is -5.92% YTD.

I am thinking I will hang in there for a few days. If we don't get some good new from the PPT or earning I will bail out and lick my wounds. I don't think we will see a flush like yesterdays. If we do all bets are off and I will take it like a man in the G fund. If 1364 get broke and closes below it I'm done.

Short answer : I'm holding for a short term bounce. 1425-1445 would be nice.

 

[McDuck]

I do like my entry point for now. C Fund is -5.92% YTD.

Is that where it was at when you went 100%C yesterday?

 

[poolman]

Economic calender looks light for tomorrow morning. Merrill Lynch reports before the bell tomorrow morning. I probably will go in with some. still looking for things I'm missing in analysis.

 

[350zCommTech]

CPI was not bad so why didn't Ben cut? More and more it seems like he wants to wait until the 30th. Griffin thinks he might say something during today's beige book. The dollar just took off big 1/2 hour ago and it's climbing. That makes me doubt the rate cut this afternoon.

Tomorrow Ben is speaking to congress I believe. I doubt he we cut tomorrow. CNBC.com has a rumor about the Feds holding an emergency meeting overnight. They made it sound like it was fact.

Tomorrow could be another stinker when MER reports. Here's my thinking, if they don't cut today, they probably won't cut tomorrow.

 

[FogSailing]

Timing is a very difficult thing. Thus far, Uncle Ben hasn't been one to do things in a hurry. I don't see him changing his timing. The Fed needs to do what it needs to do soon..but my guess is that there won't be a rushed feeling to their actions...these guys have their own clock and it doesn't seem to be lined up with the markets clock. IMHO. I guessing it doesn't come till later in the month..but what do I know...nada..

 

[350zCommTech]

I panicked this morning and placed an IFT into the F fund with nearly half.

Then, just before noon, I see it's making it's way back.

Thats a GOOD sign- so I cancelled my IFT for the day.

I hope that was the right thing to do. I was getting KILLED this month, trying to experiment with the "TRACEY RAY BUY AND HOLD" plan.

Sometimes, he who panics first, panics best.

 

[hessian]

I am thinking I will hang in there for a few days. I don't think we will see a flush like yesterdays. If 1364 get broke and closes below it I'm done.
Short answer: I'm holding for a short term bounce. 1425-1445 would be nice.

Hey show-me,
I went into stocks today - I shortened your quote but agree with almost everything (except, I heard today re: "PPT" -that they might have something within a month -what?). Anyway, I liked your "bearish Harami" lesson (which was right on BTW, nice!).

My decision today is really confused -which I thought for you might at least make for a good chuckle:
It seemed completely appropriate at the time (as anything in this market right now) -basically I saw what I thought might be a small "A" that closed today after, the obvious huge "M" pattern. Now, I think, this is normally considered to be continued bearish, however, using some "SWAG reasoning" given current market, I thought I'd play this contrarian (due especially as its opex Friday). Additionally, thinking perhaps a bounce tomorrow/Friday due to now sitting smack on several short- and longer- term supports. Also, some reasonable retail news.
- What do ya think, crazy enough to just maybe work out? :nuts:

PS There's always that wild-card (Uncle Ben), but I didn't count this as a factor in decision.
PPS daddy needs a new Ed Brown Kobra Carry!

 

[Show-me]

Hessian,

Luv the Ed Brown products but the Glock is about as bullet proof a piece you can get and it is affordable. If I was to get a Brown it would be the Marine Sniper .308. Nice range and a dime a dozen for ammo. I luv the mill work on the bolts of his rifles.

I could not buy a Brown and carry it for fear of scratching it. LOL To pretty a piece to carry. Second choice would be anything .357 stainless. More cheap ammo and dishwasher safe.:blink:

 

[Show-me]

O'boy was I under the weather when I got home. Went to sleep about 15 minutes into Cramer and woke up at 3 a.m.

Market sucks and my current play is short term and I hope I don't get caught. Recession IS here but the PPT will not confirm it until the data comes in and the data is looking back data.

The PPT will be to late to save the day. I hear it will take 30 for the stimulus package to be agreed on and that is a long time in this market. Rate cuts will be felt 6 to 12 months from now so the next President will be the beneficiary of them.

Right now all I am playing is the potential bounce. The Dr. is in the House today and Ben better say something good. His hands are tied unless he gets support from his peers and Congress.

I am only doing this for a few more days then back to CP.

 

[McDuck]

I am only doing this for a few more days then back to CP.

What's CP?

 

[Steadygain]

Excellent question; and makes me feel better about mine on 12%'s


CP - is capital preservation - maximum is G Fund
..........................................minimum is the F Fund

 

[Show-me]

That be it.

 

[Show-me]

And Uncle Ben is a idiot. We need a stimulus package immediately while I wait until the 30th to get off my a$$. LOL Day late and a dollar short, BEN.

I made a high risk play that Ben would DO something and he did nothing but talk in circles.

I stayed in for a DCB and I hope I can do some damage control. :blink:

Important: NOW IS THE TIME TO REALLY CONTRIBUTE TO YOUR TSP SO MUCH THAT YOU ARE EAT NOTHING BUT BEANS AND TATERS. YOU ARE GETTING MARCH 2007 LOW PRICES AND MORE TO COME. KICK UP THOSE CONTRIBUTIONS AND MAKE IT COUNT!!!

DON'T CRY OVER WHAT YOU LOST. BUY WHAT IS CHEAP AND/OR GETTING CHEAPER.

 

[12%ayear]

If Greenspan was in charge, he would of cut several times by now. Ben is very lame and texted up. He wants to prove Greenspan wrong. Alan Greenspan is way ahead of this guy.