Show-me Account Talk

[Show-me]

Took my lumps and exited Friday. Many charts are against me staying long I fund. EFA chart is struggling with the 200 day sma and the dollar is in rally mode. I will live to fight another day. Greece got a piece of me. I have a trade left and will use it if we flush again.

 

[Show-me]

Down -3.31% ytd life goes on. If dollar continues to rally I will pick up some pieces of silver for fun.

 

[Show-me]

Oscar is calling a new leg down based on the bear flag and the Holiday reversal rule.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xawPcUrLhN4&feature=sub

 

[Show-me]

TZA looks like a buy.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TZA&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p96956313311

 

[airlift]

TZA looks like a buy.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TZA&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p96956313311

Thanks for posting this. Indeed, we have what appear to be pivotal decisions to make. Between Oscar' s take and Birchtree's article on the dollar. Show me what is your best opinion?

 

[Show-me]

Your asking the guy that was at the top of the tracker and is now 200 and something? lol

Even after this 10% pull back stocks still look toppy.

The dynamic between the dollar and the US markets is changing. It use to be the weak dollar would rally US markets and now that is not so.

For the MTD, US markets are higher or flat. February is one of the weakest months of they year after September. C and S fund are higher as is the dollar.

The I fund is really struggling with the 200 day sma.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EFA&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p63372119398
I was hoping it would bounce off of it soundly and it did not. So I will reset and try again.

Dollar is looking stronger now that the Euro Zone is going to bail out Greece. Printing more money there now.

I'm in the G fund and looking at TZA. That would imply that I think we could go lower. The fear mongering on the media is kicking into high gear with the debt burden and entitlement spending. Hell, Harry Reid is cutting the jobs bill to the bone for what ever reason. On the surface it seem he cut out the pork.

Every time I see a politician on TV I see fear in their eyes. Fear that the easy times are over and they will have to become the managers of our countries finances and make really unpopular decisions.

 

[350zCommTech]

TZA looks like a buy.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TZA&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p96956313311

In my amateur opinion, it's a gamble with a tight stop at best. With all the bear flags out there and Oscar's holiday reversal, this might payoff big. But, the risk is that it might fall down to the bottom of the Bolinger band first. That's where it would a better buy.

 

[JTH]

JMHO it's oversold on the long channel and on target within the short channel. A close below the hourly 200 EMA doesn't inspire me. I'd wait for a candlestick spike low, confirmed with a spike in volume, followed by a turn in the the Sto & MACD, before making an entry. But hey what do I know, the only bottom I'm good at tagging is the one attached to the wife. :cheesy:


View attachment 8374

 

[Show-me]

Thanks for the input, I really appreciate it. I'm not running out to buy with both fists but a toe would work.

 

[350zCommTech]

Thanks for the input, I really appreciate it. I'm not running out to buy with both fists but a toe would work.

Got a weak sell on the RUT. But still very risky IMO.

 

[Show-me]

One day can make a difference. Should have went with the STA as it said the day after Prez Day is bullish. Live and learn. Oscar has been sucking it bad lately and so have I.

Raising the rate on emergency loans will send a signal that the free money is ending. To me that will cause things to start to slow down. Once the economy has to start standing on its own, look out.

 

[Birchtree]

We just went through the SPX 50 day moving average at 1111 - that should mean more market rally up front.

 

[350zCommTech]

Did you get some?

View attachment 8454

 

[Show-me]

Nope, work is interfering with my trading. Working OT.

 

[Show-me]

I will on Monday, that is ripe for the picking.

 

[Show-me]

First, I need a clone.

Been a while since I got spanked by the market and I needed a breather from it. Now I need a breather from life, to many things going on and not enough of me.

Kid graduating, getting him off top dead center to make a choice, school board, work, more construction, spring chores, Dr. appointments, VA battles, baseball fund raiser, etc. Life is fun until you start drooling down you chest from it all. lol And, lets not forget work, which is now the most relaxing thing going on. lol

Check out the On Line Tax Revolt. http://www.onlinetaxrevolt.com/

 

[nnuut]

Sounds like you need to retire like me.
Jump in the waters fine!!

 

[Show-me]

CIT Group posts 4Q loss of $1 billion

CIT Group loses $1 billion in 4th quarter due to low finance revenue, high borrowing costs

 

[anthony]

Did you get some?

I trade TNA for small stock caps (also VXF and IWM occasionally). But during bearish signals I've typically gone to SDS, and occasionally to TWM.

I hadn't heard of TZA before, so thanks for pointing it out.

For Tom: TraderFred uses TNA a lot. Is there any reason he goes almost exclusively to SDS when bearish on the market, and not TZA?

 

[tsptalk]

For Tom: TraderFred uses TNA a lot. Is there any reason he goes almost exclusively to SDS when bearish on the market, and not TZA?

Probably only because he hasn't created a submodel program for TZA.

Those 3 X funds (and 2 X to a lesser degree) can be tough on you if you hold them for a while because of the way they are calculated each day.

Sometimes you can't get shares to short, but I think the best way to play those ETFs is to short the opposing fund, rather than buying the one you like.

For example:
Instead of buying TNA, short TZA.
Instead of buying TZA, short TNA.

Take a look at both charts compared to the small cap indices and you'll see what I mean.

The big problem is, at least for me, I can't go short in my IRA.

Interesting side note: The time that they do work best is when they are moving in one direction, like they are now. You get eaten up when the indexes are chopping (up one day, down the next, up, down).

Source

More on leveraged ETF's from the ETF Talk message board.