Show-me Account Talk

[Show-me]

No need to be scared but you should be pissed at you politicians and the system of lobbyist.

 

[Show-me]

The double will come tonight after work, trust me.

 

[Frozen]

DCA is the answer. October is a rocky month and November is the #1 performing month for the S&P and #3 for DOW since 1950. Best six months strategy starts in November. Election November #1 for S&P and DOW.

Thanks for the thoughts; but I don't follow what your "6 month" stratedgy is. You seem to predicting much gloom for the forseable future, so why DCA? I have been in G since last October and am feeling pretty comfortable. I will/may not catch the bottom but I am also not losing month after month. Seems to me what you are saying/predicting would lead you to stay in safety until there is something out there to change your economic world view. I worry that too many are basing their decisions on this predicted magical capitulation. Just because everyone abandons hope does not mean the underlying fundamental problems in the economy suddenly disappear. I keep seeing members on this forum remark about what a deal they got on a cheap stock, only to see it fall by 10-40 percent soon thereafter. How are these people feeling good about this??? I don't get it.

 

[Birchtree]

Every time lately when I've bought a stock I've taken another hit - but along with that stock comes income in the form of a dividend. Hopefully most dividends will be maintained and even increased. You can buy Alcoa at $9.41 yielding a little over 7% - that dividend will buy more AA and the payout will be a little larger three months from now - most dividends last for eternity. If AA drops into the $8.00 range I'm a buyer again, if it lifts into the $11.00 range I'm also a buyer - simply DCAing my way as we move along. And I'm also a buyer four times a year without any thought - auto pilot dividend reinvestments.

 

[justbizness45]

You can buy Alcoa at $9.41 yielding a little over 7% - that dividend will buy more AA and the payout will be a little larger three months from now - most dividends last for eternity.

Birch, since you are teaching, how do you determine the yield? Is there a formula?:embarrest:

 

[Birchtree]

You can usually find the yield listed in your local paper stock section - or IBD or TWSJ or some similar type publication. I bought a bunch of toxic bank stocks over the summer back in July and most pay sweet dividends and are not dinged with the subprime crisis or credit crunch. I expect many to be bought out by other larger banks or merged. A subscription to Barons which comes only weekly is excellent and less time consuming. I get the local rag only three days a week on the weekend. I had a sweet young lady call me the other day offering the paper every day free for the next six weeks - and I said no, she said but it's free about three times before I asked her what it was about no she did not understand. That's the mind set of our younger generation - no wonder they suck up to Nobama. I say that because my paper is owned by the liberal rag known as TNYT, (New York Times).

 

[CountryBoy]

Birch, since you are teaching, how do you determine the yield? Is there a formula?:embarrest:

I'm not claiming to have near the knowledge of Birch, but I use the Stock's Annual Dividend divided by the share price and mulitply 100 to get a percentage (easier in an excel formula for the yield cell) or you can get it from Yahoo's Finance Summary page for each specific stock.

Sorry to butt in.

CB

 

[Show-me]

DCA is the answer. October is a rocky month and November is the #1 performing month for the S&P and #3 for DOW since 1950. Best six months strategy starts in November. Election November #1 for S&P and DOW.

Thanks for the thoughts; but I don't follow what your "6 month" stratedgy is. You seem to predicting much gloom for the forseable future, so why DCA? I have been in G since last October and am feeling pretty comfortable. I will/may not catch the bottom but I am also not losing month after month. Seems to me what you are saying/predicting would lead you to stay in safety until there is something out there to change your economic world view. I worry that too many are basing their decisions on this predicted magical capitulation. Just because everyone abandons hope does not mean the underlying fundamental problems in the economy suddenly disappear. I keep seeing members on this forum remark about what a deal they got on a cheap stock, only to see it fall by 10-40 percent soon thereafter. How are these people feeling good about this??? I don't get it.

Good morning and I am glad you asked! Staying in the G fund is a great thing but I am going to show you a little math example on how to buy a bottom. You can not pick a bottom but you can DCA buy one.

I'm not afraid of the future but I am pissed off royally about the last 10 years of our past. You still have to plan and save for the future no matter what it brings.

Start with any amount divide it up into the now famous word 4 "tranches" or 4 equal parts.

Buy the S&P only for this example. Take the first tranche and buy at 1200, like I did. The second at 900 and the third at 750. Leave the four tranche as a reserve in the G fund. Kick your payroll contributions into equities so you get more DCA effect.

Now you bought into the S&P in three equal moves. 1200+900+750=2850/3=950

The more you buy at the lower price the lower the average buy in price become and when it recovers the better your position for big gains will be.

The market won't go to zero and if the govt. takes over the pension system it won't matter any ways.

You need to have a retirement time line of at least 10 years and diversify.

Another quick example I use at work is buy $1000 @ $10 for 100 shares, it goes down 50% and you buy another $1000 @ $5 a share for 200 more shares. The it goes down to $2.50 and you buy another $1000 and get 400 more share for a average price of $3000/700=$4.28 a share.

Now this is a using a index fund like the C, S, I funds not a individual stock. The reason is a individual stock can go to zero. If a index fund goes to zero you need a gun.

 

[nnuut]

I think I'll Just buy in at $2.50!

 

[Show-me]

I think I'll Just buy in at $2.50! View attachment 4955

Ah ha, but that is the point. There IS NO GUARANTEE it will go to $2.50, it might bounce off of $3.00 and go to the moon of $20 a share. Even if you don't use you next two tranches you would have a average price of $7.50 as it shot to the moon.

 

[nnuut]

Who said it would be easy?

 

[Frozen]

This has probably been asked many times before, but is there a certain day of the month the TSP purchases occur, or is it the day of, or the day after pay day or some-such?

 

[Corepuncher]

This has probably been asked many times before, but is there a certain day of the month the TSP purchases occur, or is it the day of, or the day after pay day or some-such?

I THINK it is COB Tuesday of the payday week. I get my direct deposit on Mondays.

 

[Show-me]

This has probably been asked many times before, but is there a certain day of the month the TSP purchases occur, or is it the day of, or the day after pay day or some-such?

Each agency is different mine is the Wednesday prior to my Friday payday. Log on to tsp.gov and look at you latest activity or look on your statement. I will tell you the date the contributions go in.

 

[Show-me]

KevinD posted this on another thread.

 

[anthony]

This has probably been asked many times before, but is there a certain day of the month the TSP purchases occur, or is it the day of, or the day after pay day or some-such?

For military it is the first trading day of the month.

 

[wv-girl]

Each agency is different mine is the Wednesday prior to my Friday payday. Log on to tsp.gov and look at you latest activity or look on your statement. I will tell you the date the contributions go in.

You are right. I have noticed that my agency pay date is occurring the Friday(1week) after BirchTree's(according to his post). But sometimes they credit it the Thursday before. That makes a difference in the price paid for DCA into funds.

 

[Show-me]

Could you imagine all TSP funds hitting the market at once. That is a major chunk of cash.:nuts:

 

[Silverbird]

It depends on your Agency, our TSP Payday contributions go into effect on Tuesdays (paid on Mondays). They don't all hit at once.

 

[Gumby]

Could you imagine all TSP funds hitting the market at once. That is a major chunk of cash.:nuts:

Maybe Barclays are unloading the C, S, & I fund shares all on the same day......or maybe like yesterday they were buying in the morning and then selling in the PM after all the IFT's hit.