Show-me Account Talk

[justbizness45]

From KDs article today "This hasn't gone unnoticed by the credit default swap folks. The cost of insuring Treasury Debt - that's right, United States Treasuries - is forty times as expensive as it was in early 2007. Of course if that risk of default is ever realized, our way of life in America ends." Is your Black Swan doing a spiral dive??

 

[Show-me]

From KDs article today "This hasn't gone unnoticed by the credit default swap folks. The cost of insuring Treasury Debt - that's right, United States Treasuries - is forty times as expensive as it was in early 2007. Of course if that risk of default is ever realized, our way of life in America ends." Is your Black Swan doing a spiral dive??

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aJsDZPntxr10&refer=home


The old saying "not worth the paper it is printed on" rings a bell.

 

[Show-me]

Three percent plus pop in the S fund is helping me out.

 

[Show-me]

October is over and this is how my accounts feel.

 

[anthony]

American Express cutting 7000 jobs. Hmm. I thought they were like the best credit card company...with only "AAA" rated customers We are going into a downward spiral...it may be a slow death but I"m shooting for S&P in the 600's.

Depends on how you look at it. Yes job losses really suck, especially if you're the one getting the slip. But from an investor's standpoint, they are an absolute necessity and may be viewed in the positive.

Corporations and public companies have become obese on the bubble. Now they need to go on a diet. When they drop some of that weight, whether it be pealing off a non-producing arm of their company or dropping their surplus of employees, they will become leaner and more efficient versions of themselves. Ultimately in the long run that will lead to profits, better profits-per-share ratios, and that will trigger stock price increases.

I wouldn't be surprised to see short-term jumps in the stock prices of companies that announce layoffs, as investors speculate about their more profitable future.

 

[Show-me]

Anthony is right this is a positive for the company. Separate your emotion about the little people like us and the company.

When times are good, companies get lacks in their management and kind of let things go with the flow. When times are bad, they trim the fat and do more with less. This goes from the top down. Take USPS for a example, times bad, HQ has frozen all promotions and hiring. The are combining jobs and working from the top down. Automation is key and we just installed a new to us DBCS for sorting mail. We removed it from a poor performing office in southern Illinois.

The cream will rise to the top. WSJ reported that car dealers are falling. I would speculate that many "disposable income" and "credit dependent" businesses will fall, but on the other side of the coin is opportunity for new niches to develop. Fortune favors the bold comes to mind.

 

[nnuut]

Job losses are the NEXT BIG PROBLEM in this rout!! Hold on to your Govt jobs while you can, things may change when we leave IRAQ? BRAC, BRAC has already made me move once, but I'm too close to my planned retirement date to worry about that now, but many of us will feel the pain when we leave. Let's see Obami wants to leave NOW, so get your stuff straight!!

 

[Corepuncher]

Depends on how you look at it. Yes job losses really suck, especially if you're the one getting the slip. But from an investor's standpoint, they are an absolute necessity and may be viewed in the positive.

Corporations and public companies have become obese on the bubble. Now they need to go on a diet. When they drop some of that weight, whether it be pealing off a non-producing arm of their company or dropping their surplus of employees, they will become leaner and more efficient versions of themselves. Ultimately in the long run that will lead to profits, better profits-per-share ratios, and that will trigger stock price increases.

I wouldn't be surprised to see short-term jumps in the stock prices of companies that announce layoffs, as investors speculate about their more profitable future.

Yeah it's healthy for the companies, but man if the consumer is 70% of the economy, that seems to me more of a negative than a positive for the stock market. Especially when you consider the possible downward spiral of unemployment.

I think stocks will be dead for quite a while. In fact, I think there is a risk of treasuries deflating, and money going into emerging markets rather than the US once this whole deal stabilizes.

 

[robo]

October is over and this is how my accounts feel.

"It was a wise trader who said that when a trade makes him sick enough to throw up he knows its right."

Yep - felt like it a couple of times this year!

Robo

Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Pass the Salt

Look, we had a stinko day but after the buy the rumor rally on Election Day, a sell the news decline seemed inevitable. And we got it in earnest. Futures are lower in early evening trading so I won't be sleeping well tonight. But then again, it was a wise trader who said that when a trade makes him sick enough to throw up he knows its right.

http://quicktakespro.blogspot.com/

 

[Show-me]

Huge breaking news! BOE drops rate 1.5% to 3% with a target of 2%. No one expected this!

 

[Show-me]

Hey Robo,

Always good to see ya. I was going to step aside on the huge up day but got side tracked moving our last MPBCS to the parking lot. Damn work got in the way again. My new bell weather indicator is our MOS who is the mild mannered guy that missed the down draft and has been doing well. He got out Tuesday, I should have known.

Take care.

 

[Show-me]

Short term capitulation. 100% g fund.

 

[Gumby]

Short term capitulation. 100% g fund.

I am on the lilly with you brother.
Looks like at least a short term correction is taking place. I couldn't believe that election day bounce......maybe we will get to the bottom soon. Friday may be a black Friday.

 

[INVSTSMRT78]

Short term capitulation. 100% g fund.

Hmmm...to jump back to the G fund, or ride it out.....hmmmmmm.....

 

[Bullitt]

Yeah it's healthy for the companies, but man if the consumer is 70% of the economy, that seems to me more of a negative than a positive for the stock market. Especially when you consider the possible downward spiral of unemployment.

I agree.

Regardless of what job cuts and fat trimming are made, when taxes are increased for the big chain businesses we're going to end up paying for it in the end anyway. With job destruction a near certainty, who's going to provide the money to keep this consumer driven world going round? Does anybody still have capital gains subject to taxes from the past 5 years?

If job cuts made any difference in the grand scheme of things, the market would be higher. Breaking news is more like history 101, that's why I choose the History Channel instead over CNBC.

 

[Minnow]

Breaking news is more like history 101, that's why I choose the History Channel instead over CNBC.

If that doesn't win the "quote of the week" award then somebody rigged the system.

Good to see you posting more lately.

 

[ATCJeff]

Breaking news is more like history 101, that's why I choose the History Channel instead over CNBC.

With CNBC you just have to know which reporters you can listen too! Though CNBC is easier on the eyes then the History channel.

 

[Minnow]

Would you be referring to one Rick Santelli? -- if so, you're right... an exception to the "noise" rule -- don't know about his easiness on the eyes, though. That would apply to virtually all their female staff and most of Bloomberg TV's. Geez! Hard to concentrate.

 

[Bullitt]

Yeah, Santelli was always a good one to listen to and is very passionate about what he does. Try to find that in a financial advisor at your local bucket shop. I felt he always had a way for standing up for the little guy. He got me into following the daily action in the treasury pits, where the smart money hangs out.

I also used to like that guy in the morning, older fella, a bit heavyset. I remember one time he was reading the comic page of the NY Times and the camera caught it. I can't remember his name, but he was always pretty funny.

Actually, I've been on a 'Ghost Hunters' binge on Sci Fi Channel with my DVR lately. Man, that live Halloween episode would've had me out of there in a hurry if I was there.

 

[robo]

Hey Robo,

Always good to see ya. I was going to step aside on the huge up day but got side tracked moving our last MPBCS to the parking lot. Damn work got in the way again. My new bell weather indicator is our MOS who is the mild mannered guy that missed the down draft and has been doing well. He got out Tuesday, I should have known.

Take care.

I used my last move and I'm back in today for some pain tomorrow. I'm not sure how we close, but we could find some support around the 900 level. This should take us back to oversold again and I'll be looking to sell any kind of rally here. Maybe they will buy the close, but we have some serious selling pressure. I'm already out of moves and it really - really sucks!

Hope things are going well at work.... Still on T1 and that also sucks.....