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Show-me Account Talk
- Thread starter Show-me
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Show-me
Well-known member
There is too much data to transcribe, but I will note that September and October from 1980 to 2004 looked very good. The only exception was 2000 -5.3 and -0.5 respectively. And, that worries me because is this a bubble year like 2000. The other year was 1984 with -.03 and -0.01 respectively.
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Show-me
Well-known member
After studying the page of stats the one thing that stands out is that 2000 was a bubble year followed by two more bad years.
If this year finishes bad, I would expect the odds of a negative performing following year be very high also. If a new party take office the odds go up.
If this year finishes bad, I would expect the odds of a negative performing following year be very high also. If a new party take office the odds go up.
Show-me
Well-known member
Which reminds me of some more interesting stats that need review.
"January Barometer" predicts years course with a .754 batting average. Every down January on the S&P since 1950, without exception, preceded a new or extended bear market, or a flat market. Six election years followed suit.
S&P January return 2008 -5.98%
"First Five Days In January" (less than 50% accurate) -5.25%
YTD -10.69%
Odds are high of a losing year.
"January Barometer" predicts years course with a .754 batting average. Every down January on the S&P since 1950, without exception, preceded a new or extended bear market, or a flat market. Six election years followed suit.
S&P January return 2008 -5.98%
"First Five Days In January" (less than 50% accurate) -5.25%
YTD -10.69%
Odds are high of a losing year.
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Show-me
Well-known member
FogSailing
Well-known member
I can certainly see that we have more downside in our markets, but to say that our financial markets might Chernobyl in a major way..well... just seems wrong..
The financial system has some big problems, but with time I still believe they will be rectified...CorePuncher posted an interesting commentary yesterday on financial issues, and while things are likely to get worse in the next year, I can't help but think we still have better days ahead..
FS
The financial system has some big problems, but with time I still believe they will be rectified...CorePuncher posted an interesting commentary yesterday on financial issues, and while things are likely to get worse in the next year, I can't help but think we still have better days ahead..
FS
Thanks Show,
Patrick's comments about the financial press being in pockets of big finance should be expanded to about 90% of all media in US being in the pockets of the powerful.
Are deans of US journalism schools asking prospective reporters to investigate or are they asking, "mirror, mirror ... who's the prettiest...? As for our "free press", think dry cleaners, whereby your reading or listening to "the news" will soothingly free you of all dirt and questions, then sanitize and press you wrinkle and doubt free as a cool working bee.
Combine Randy Newman's Burminham and when they drop the big one, to equal more brown for Wall St. Any day now our long running simpleton soap opera will probably hit the fan, as in Ch 9 BK of $3.2 billion sewer bond default plus daily penalties of $50K after Aug. 30. Could mean bye bye bond insurers, unless, rather until, moma welfare Republicans & Dems bail them out.
3 of 5 Jefferson County Commissioners (1 Repub, 2 Dims, sorry Dems) have made an overwhelming case against filing Ch 9 on grounds it will sully our reputation, create great damage in the county, do irreputable harm to our ability to borrow in the future, and moreover, contaminate the whole state with higher future bond borrowing costs and it will stain our honor. This message reverting to 1861 values and appeals has been rigidly promoted by Birmingham big businesses and The Birmingham News since March 08 with the very highly paid "help" of a revolving door cast of the biggest Wall Street underwriters and biggest local law firms.
I challenged the wall of silence and refusal to openly discuss bankruptcy in a public hearing on 8/14 by describing the highlights of Orange County's 1994 Ch 9 filing and discharge. Based on the Commission majority and media's refusal to discuss Orange County's BK, I encouraged the audience, including many local mayors to use the Internet to do their own research on Orange County and Ch 9. Since then, the media and mayors have begun to discuss BK.
See TheBirminghamNews.com then the Forums tab, then Birmngham, then news and editorials or search for Jefferson County Sewer Bond.
Show, I apoligize for using your space for what probably appears to be a stupid local problem. But, at the time it seemed like a good example of several things Patrick discussed. Are any readers interested in the topic of community institutional integrity or a related topic on the internet? Next I need to figure out how to can all the produce in my garden.
Jon
Patrick's comments about the financial press being in pockets of big finance should be expanded to about 90% of all media in US being in the pockets of the powerful.
Are deans of US journalism schools asking prospective reporters to investigate or are they asking, "mirror, mirror ... who's the prettiest...? As for our "free press", think dry cleaners, whereby your reading or listening to "the news" will soothingly free you of all dirt and questions, then sanitize and press you wrinkle and doubt free as a cool working bee.
Combine Randy Newman's Burminham and when they drop the big one, to equal more brown for Wall St. Any day now our long running simpleton soap opera will probably hit the fan, as in Ch 9 BK of $3.2 billion sewer bond default plus daily penalties of $50K after Aug. 30. Could mean bye bye bond insurers, unless, rather until, moma welfare Republicans & Dems bail them out.
3 of 5 Jefferson County Commissioners (1 Repub, 2 Dims, sorry Dems) have made an overwhelming case against filing Ch 9 on grounds it will sully our reputation, create great damage in the county, do irreputable harm to our ability to borrow in the future, and moreover, contaminate the whole state with higher future bond borrowing costs and it will stain our honor. This message reverting to 1861 values and appeals has been rigidly promoted by Birmingham big businesses and The Birmingham News since March 08 with the very highly paid "help" of a revolving door cast of the biggest Wall Street underwriters and biggest local law firms.
I challenged the wall of silence and refusal to openly discuss bankruptcy in a public hearing on 8/14 by describing the highlights of Orange County's 1994 Ch 9 filing and discharge. Based on the Commission majority and media's refusal to discuss Orange County's BK, I encouraged the audience, including many local mayors to use the Internet to do their own research on Orange County and Ch 9. Since then, the media and mayors have begun to discuss BK.
See TheBirminghamNews.com then the Forums tab, then Birmngham, then news and editorials or search for Jefferson County Sewer Bond.
Show, I apoligize for using your space for what probably appears to be a stupid local problem. But, at the time it seemed like a good example of several things Patrick discussed. Are any readers interested in the topic of community institutional integrity or a related topic on the internet? Next I need to figure out how to can all the produce in my garden.
Jon
uscs344
Member
I feel that is a smart move.
Show-me
Well-known member
Yea, I believed that there was going to be a pull back due to the 3 up days in a row, but I also feel that we could easily see more that a one day pull back.
"Two up days in a bear market." Three up days and I should have bought some SDS.
If we close down today, we could breaking below the trend line support.
I would like to make two IFT this month so I might make a move Wednesday and Thursday.
"Two up days in a bear market." Three up days and I should have bought some SDS.
If we close down today, we could breaking below the trend line support.
I would like to make two IFT this month so I might make a move Wednesday and Thursday.
uscs344
Member
I agree. When reveiwing the charts today Looks like the "S" fund wants to break that support. Today might be the day. I don't think you will get two IFT's this month though, but my trading seems to be a little bit more conservative. Watch the MACD indicator for a possible break downward. I believe it is going to happen sooner than later. Good luck
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