Sensei's account talk

[crommie]

...the SPX just looks like it's been flat for a long time...

I heard a guest on Bloomberg Radio a few months ago say "the longer the base, the higher in space". Perhaps this is what she was refering to.

 

[Sensei]

Uh-oh, I just took a look at Ocean's List, and saw that now only 41.35% of us remain on the sidelines (58.65% in CSI&Ls). That's about as bullish as I've seen the herd this year. Still a lot of people on the side, but I suspect that a few days of green will finally get the last of the bears to throw their hats in the ring. Last chance before May 1st, right? Careful with that axe, Eugene.

 

[Sensei]

For those who might not have given up on the H&S scenario in the small caps and transports, here's a new perspective of it.



Personally, I'd like to stay invested until the end of the month, and I'd like to see new highs blast through the arch. But if it starts acting as resistence, well, maybe time to bail.

 

[Birchtree]

All I see is a boot in the bear's butt. Keep'em on the run as they cover.

 

[Sensei]

Birchtree, since I've been a member on this site, I've seen you mention how great it would be to see three days in a row of DOW triple digits. I'm ready to dial up a triple-triple. How about you?

As the early returns on our sentiment survey are overwhelmingly bullish, I find it amusing that Ocean's List shows the herd moved significantly out of stocks yesterday. Now 49% are in G or F. That's my kind of rally. April still has a lot of days left to convince Mom & Pop that the train is leaving without them.

 

[nasa1974]

For those who might not have given up on the H&S scenario in the small caps and transports, here's a new perspective of it.

View attachment 23264

Personally, I'd like to stay invested until the end of the month, and I'd like to see new highs blast through the arch. But if it starts acting as resistence, well, maybe time to bail.

Sensei, Nice chart. I am a bit surprised that the small caps are under perfoming the S&P. The "I" is doing well for a change. Hopefully April can finish strong. May on the other hand is always a concern. If the "I" fund stays strong that might be the fund for May. Good luck.

 

[Sensei]

Sensei, Nice chart. I am a bit surprised that the small caps are under perfoming the S&P. The "I" is doing well for a change. Hopefully April can finish strong. May on the other hand is always a concern. If the "I" fund stays strong that might be the fund for May. Good luck.

Thanks Nasa. I posted the chart at the open yesterday, and by the close price was way outside the arch. The Wilshire is very close to new highs. If today follows through, you can pretty much throw this scenario out the window. I hope that's the case, as I am 100%S.

It seems every time I take a crack at speculative charting, the market throws me a curve. It's OK though. It's fun. If it helps others out, that's good too. Just keep in mind, I'm a school teacher, not a financial advisor or stock market analyst! :laugh:

 

[Sensei]

Watching the futures today is about as much fun as waiting in a long line in the hot sun to use a port-a-potty at a crowded event. Looks like an absolutely awful day on tap for those of us in the S-fund.

Gold, by the way, is down 6% right now. Barely above $1400. Maybe it's time to buy?

 

[clester]

Watching the futures today is about as much fun as waiting in a long line in the hot sun to use a port-a-potty at a crowded event. Looks like an absolutely awful day on tap for those of us in the S-fund.

Gold, by the way, is down 6% right now. Barely above $1400. Maybe it's time to buy?

true, but its a long day still and we're still in an uptrend. Look for dip buyers

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

true, but its a long day still and we're still in an uptrend. Look for dip buyers

Already here, but $1200 might be a good time to buy over the next couple months

 

[Sensei]

I'm feeling risky today. I'm going to start DCA'ing into this mining company. It's someplace in Africa, and I think the less I know about their background, probably the better off I am. They have been in a downward spiral for several years, and gapped down in epic fashion a few months back. At a little under 4 bucks a share, I suppose there is still quite a bit of room for further calamity, but they pay a hefty dividend. So that's kind of like an insurance policy if they continue to fail.



I'm also chucking a little cash at SLV. I was on the fence between that and GLD. I'm sure I picked the wrong one.

 

[Sensei]

I know I should be happy about recouping 1.7% of Monday's loss, but a kiss on the lips doesn't feel quite so good after being kicked in the teeth.

 

[burrocrat]

how attached are you to the rest of your teeth?

sorry cuz, but i'm a don't bettor here, down we go. that first drop may later seem friendly.

 

[Sensei]

Looks like the Street's loading up another crapper today. I'm not going to sell. Stubborn, foolish, greedy? Dumb? Yeah, probably.

 

[Sensei]

I hate when the futures spike way up, and there's still over an hour before the markets open. I just know the other shoe's going to drop. That's my half-empty cup of negativity for your morning.

Still 100% S. For now...

 

[Sensei]

So, the other shoe did drop. Then bounced right back up. I'm glad to have been asleep through the whole fake ordeal. But I was thinking what an irritation that must have been for anyone who got up in the morning, saw the gap up, and reset their stops. Then they got stopped out, then the ravenous day traders jumped on the crash and sent the price flying back up. How many average Joe's got screwed out of yesterday's gains? I'm glad I don't have any stops set in my Sharebuilder account. Just DCA and B&H. Forget all the noise.

Anyway, how much higher is this leg up going to go? My YTD is at +11.15%. I believe it's gone over 12% twice this year, each time getting beaten down almost immediately. I'm thinking that might be my next sell signal...

 

[ILoveTDs]

I'm thinking along your lines. +1 to 1.5% and out Friday.

 

[Sensei]

So, TDs, did you bail? I stayed in. But once again, 1 day over 12% and I get the beat down.

The strategy that worked for me last year was to stay invested as long as the 20 day SMA was above the 50 day SMA, and price was above both of them. Even if price crossed below the 20 day, my rule was to wait a day before selling. It saved me from panic selling a couple times. This year, I should have continued that strategy, but I thought I could call the top, and twice lost out on further gains. Next week looks like it could be headed for a test of the 20 day, so I'm going to be on my toes. I'm scared as hell of May, but everyone and their dog is because it's been down 3 years straight. It seems like people catch on to patterns when they've repeated three times, and so the market tends to go another way on the fourth time. Maybe an oversimplification. We'll see.

 

[ILoveTDs]

Yeah I bailed COB Thursday to the F Fund.

It might go up, as every March can't be down. However, this year so far has been a complete repeat of last year, big first quarter - down April just to pull to even end of month. Until it stops acting like last year, I'll keep treating it like last year.

 

[Sensei]

Still holding stocks in May with a YTD of +13%. I feel like selling should be a no-brainer. And now the futures are headed straight down as the open approaches. Have mercy.