Sensei's account talk

[Sensei]

Made the IFT. 100% G. Looks like it might have been too little too late. The futures are taking a sharp downturn as we head into the opening bell.

Argh, do I know how to pick 'em or what? Previous day's gains (which were just making up for the previous 3 days of losses), entirely wiped away. $8 for a real-time IFT doesn't seem like a bad idea to me.

Anyway, got out at a closing price of SPX 1545, Wilshire 808. A test of the 50 day SMA would be a nice place to buy back in if it comes before the month's end.

 

[Sensei]

Blimey. Somebody abandoned ship too soon, and his name is me. I suck. But I was really afraid to see my YTD return slip back to single digits. Like the bulls say, fear is what drives the market higher. Good luck to the top 50 - I hope to be among you again someday!

 

[Birchtree]

You could remind yourself every day that we are in a new mega trend secular bull market and you have to stay the course no matter the what - because the bull will definitely try to shake you off. Chance favors the prepared mind.

 

[Sensei]

I'm feeling pretty dumb having sold on the particular day that I did. I think the SPX opening price that day was around 1555, but it wound up closing at 1545. I figured there was a chance we'd see 1575, but more likely to go down to 1525. Long story short, the best strategy in a bull market is buy and hold. Tough lesson learned.

I thought about using my last March IFT to buy back in, but the chart still looks like it could be forming a Head & Shoulders. Last year, the head was formed by three successive waves, each making a higher high. Then the bottom dropped out and the 50 day SMA was tested in the first week of April. I don't know if the timing will be the same, but I do expect a test of the 50 day in April. So I'm going to hold out for a better buying opportunity. If it doesn't come in April, I guess there's always May.

:notrust:

 

[ILoveTDs]

April did drop in the begging of the month last year, but remember it crawled back and was slightly up towards the end of the month, had a down day the end of the month to close just slightly down. April is usually a good, see some of toms chart on other posts. May was the killer last year, and seasonality say's sell in May and go away. I suspect we will see a top in late April early May.

 

[Sensei]

April did drop in the begging of the month last year, but remember it crawled back and was slightly up towards the end of the month, had a down day the end of the month to close just slightly down. April is usually a good, see some of toms chart on other posts. May was the killer last year, and seasonality say's sell in May and go away. I suspect we will see a top in late April early May.

Hey man, I was just thinking about you today. Wondering where you were on the tracker, and saw you've been long and strong and are breathing down my neck. :cheesy:


Believe me, I know the story of April very well. The dip at the beginning last year was how the second shoulder was formed. That's what I'm looking for again this year. A dip early, then buy into the shoulder and get the hell out in May. If 1575 breaks to the upside, I'll give up the idea of an H&S and chase gains. Until then, I'm sticking to my story.:blink:

 

[clester]

Hey man, I was just thinking about you today. Wondering where you were on the tracker, and saw you've been long and strong and are breathing down my neck. :cheesy:


Believe me, I know the story of April very well. The dip at the beginning last year was how the second shoulder was formed. That's what I'm looking for again this year. A dip early, then buy into the shoulder and get the hell out in May. If 1575 breaks to the upside, I'll give up the idea of an H&S and chase gains. Until then, I'm sticking to my story.:blink:

"Sell in May" has been getting a lot of press. Some say they are selling in April to get ahead of the "sell in May" crowd. That tells me it may not happen. When too many people think something will happen it usually doesn't. I'm expecting the sell off to be later this year. Say July. But...I've got my exit points calculated just in case.

 

[Birchtree]

An audacious forecast in the months ahead, the fear of being in will be replaced by the fear of being out. There is a potential for a major and quite rapid sea change in sentiment - that'll raise caution. All we need is one day of a 12 to 1 ratio of advancing stocks over declining stocks and some heavy volume for excitement.

 

[ILoveTDs]

Hey man, I was just thinking about you today. Wondering where you were on the tracker, and saw you've been long and strong and are breathing down my neck. :cheesy:


Believe me, I know the story of April very well. The dip at the beginning last year was how the second shoulder was formed. That's what I'm looking for again this year. A dip early, then buy into the shoulder and get the hell out in May. If 1575 breaks to the upside, I'll give up the idea of an H&S and chase gains. Until then, I'm sticking to my story.:blink:

Yeah I fund got to me in Feb, but other then that I couldn't be happier.

I kinda got disenchanted with the * threads and then first of the year hit and it all went Birch, didn't fell like I was getting anything really to ponder or from the other side. Seems a lot like last year so just going to kinda play like last year until I see different.

 

[Sensei]

S&P 500 is trading today in a tight wedge between the 20 day SMA and the upper bollinger band. One is going to have to give. I'm waiting and watching.

 

[Sensei]

The charts look like the bad news is just beginning for the SPX, but the W4500 looks like the bleeding might be ready to stop for at least a day. It dropped considerably below the BB and found support at the 50 day SMA.

When the AT is updated, I expect to be in rarified air with a mark on my back. Gotta formulate a plan for my next entry. :worried:

 

[Sensei]

The Wilshire 4500 is forming a nice head & shoulders, the development I've been patiently waiting for. If we get a bounce today, my hope is that it will be of the dead cat variety, and not regain all of yesterday's losses.



Looking back at this time last year, the first week of April took the index all the way down to the low of the left shoulder, making a nice even set of shoulders. It would have to take a more severe dip this time around, so maybe we'll get slanted shoulders. But I think patience will reward us with lower prices. If, however, today's action takes us to a higher high than yesterday, I might have to chuck this scenario out the window. We'll see.

 

[Sensei]

:worried:

 

[JTH]

I see you are killing it on the tracker, have you thought about your next entry?

 

[Sensei]

I see you are killing it on the tracker, have you thought about your next entry?

Thanks for asking. I was hoping you'd tell me.

Seriously, though, I wish I could answer with conviction, but the market has a way of always making me second guess myself. I do believe that, when all is said and done, we'll look back at the charts and agree that a head & shoulders played out. It's just that these things are hard to see when we're in the moment, as the formations are not necessarily neat and symmetrical. I guess you could say that my "target" would be around the white line in my chart (low 770s for the Wilshire). But if we get a strong rally on Monday, all bets are off. If that's the case, I'm guessing the H&S is going to be one with a slanted neckline, and we'll be heading into the right shoulder already. In which case, I might buy and hold out for a head-test (last year we saw this in the last week of April).

So, to sum up: target is still down below, but a strong rally that appears to break above the current "bear flag" would get me to chase. Could be Monday, could be a week from now. I'll just have to watch every day.


***Good news is, I'm on spring break this week. I'm off to run a half-marathon. Right now!!! I'll report back with my time. My goal is under 2 hours.

 

[Handballer]

Thanks for asking. I was hoping you'd tell me.



**Good news is, I'm on spring break this week. I'm off to run a half-marathon. Right now!!! I'll report back with my time. My goal is under 2 hours.

Hope you did good on your run. Looks like a hilly course.

 

[Sensei]

Hope you did good on your run. Looks like a hilly course.

You crack me up, HB! I don't think I made reference to the race I was running. :laugh: It was across two bridges, covering three islands. So the only hills were the bridges themselves. It was fairly flat, but windy as we were surrounded by ocean. I made it in 1:41. Good enough for 262nd place out of a field of 4066. Separated by gender, I was 251/2991. Still in the top 10%. I'm very happy. Over the summer I'll work on my endurance, and aim to do the Naha Marathon in December in under 4 hours.

 

[burrocrat]

run sensei run.

top 10% of anything is great! many of us can't even finish in that arena, proud of you, let it shine.

YouTube

 

[Sensei]

The charts look like they could break either way from here. But it's past my bedtime, so I won't be making an entry today. Good luck, and good night!

 

[Sensei]

I lost faith in the H&S and went 100%S, trying to chase before price got away from me. I saw on the tracker that a lot of people had the same idea. Now, seeing the way today closed, I'm not so confident in my decision. I've sketched out some other scenarios on the W4500 chart, but the SPX just looks like it's been flat for a long time. The scenarios I see all ultimately end in doom, but I'm hoping for a test of the highs before the bottom drops out.

So, even if everything goes to hell tomorrow, at least on this last trade I managed to close a bit of the gap between the S fund and my YTD gain. Still room for improvement, but you've got to look for positives.