Sensei's account talk

[JTH]

According to Ocean's List, almost 58% of TSPTalkers are in G or F. Why so defensive? If that's representative of the average Joe investor's position, I think there could be a bit more hurt to the upside.

Many folks are still burned from the 2008 bear market, plus some folks are gearing up for retirement hence they are less willing to assume risk. Those number usually are within the 50% range +/- 10 so those stats are well within the normal operating range.

 

[Handballer]

According to Ocean's List, almost 58% of TSPTalkers are in G or F. Why so defensive? If that's representative of the average Joe investor's position, I think there could be a bit more hurt to the upside.

Almost all of the low information members on the tracker are in the G and F funds.

 

[Sensei]

Many folks are still burned from the 2008 bear market, plus some folks are gearing up for retirement hence they are less willing to assume risk. Those number usually are within the 50% range +/- 10 so those stats are well within the normal operating range.

Almost all of the low information members on the tracker are in the G and F funds.

You guys are right. About 100 members have bought and held the G & F funds for the entire year. Many of those members are now "Hidden". Of course, the other funds have B&Hers and inactive members as well. So, hmm...

Since we haven't had a major pullback yet, the top 50 is virtually useless as an indicator. I have been watching the herd instead. I usually view 45-55% as neutral, so 58% in G & F seems mildly on the bearish side considering we are at all time highs. I'd feel better about calling a top if that percentage traced back to 50%. Anyway, it's certainly no science - the sentiment survey came back moderately bullish. So do people even know why they have their money invested where they do?

 

[Birchtree]

I know why I'm at 80I - Japan Nikkei +315 points over night.

 

[ILoveTDs]

100 S Fund

March is traditionally one of the best months, 2013 has been good so far, interest rate are at an all time low, QE has no end in sight, and dollar is up. Enough reasons to have my money in the market?

 

[Sensei]

I know why I'm at 80I - Japan Nikkei +315 points over night.

Didn't work out like you planned, did it? The Nikkei is just moving conversely with the yen, which is now at 95 to the dollar. Once it reaches 100 to 1, it will flatten out and the Nikkei will top. In the meantime, none of it seems to work in your favor. Enjoy your I-fund pooper in peace.

100 S Fund

March is traditionally one of the best months, 2013 has been good so far, interest rate are at an all time low, QE has no end in sight, and dollar is up. Enough reasons to have my money in the market?

Sounds like you know what you're doing. I was just trying to point out the irony in the fact that so many voters in the survey were bullish about next week, yet bearish in their own TSP allocations. Checking today, about 2% shifted into stocks, making it about a 44/56 split (CSI/GF).

 

[Sensei]

I understand you folks like charts, so here's a weekly for you.



As you can see, like the daily chart, we're getting really close to the upper bollinger band on the weekly as well. In recent years, when the weekly price has closed above the bollinger band, it has been consistently followed by a downturn in the market. The downturns have varied from severe, to mild, to moderate. So, be on the lookout next week.

Interestingly, I looked at a 10 year monthly chart (not posting here, sorry). It showed that the monthly price had spent a few months above the bollinger band without necessarily pulling back. So, pick your poison.

Have a nice weekend!

 

[Sensei]

Millenium post.

Nnuut, cue the party gifs!

 

[crommie]

Congrats Sensei!
I look foraward to your next Kilo as I get a lot out of your charts and unique perspective.

 

[nnuut]

1,000 POSTS!!!!
CONGRATULATIONS:laugh:
You're on your way to the
TOP!
Let's PARTY



​

 

[Frixxxx]

Congrats Sensei!

Nice chart by the way....

Looking to hit a couple over the BB and look for a safe haven soon.

Just like my good friend said, "Gotta protect that seed corn!"

 

[Sensei]

Thanks people! It's been a real learning experience for me since I joined a couple years ago. I owe a lot to all who contribute, not only those with thoughts and opinions, but those who articulate questions and promote discussion. You are all excellent!

With 1000 posts, I leave behind Team TSP. I'll miss suiting up in that old uniform. But, man, they give you a really smooth smoking jacket up here in Club TSP. I hear when you get to TSP Universe you get a silk bathrobe, ala Hugh Hefner. It's important to have goals...

 

[burrocrat]

I hear when you get to TSP Universe you get a silk bathrobe, ala Hugh Hefner. It's important to have goals...

that's not entirely true.

but the good news is our lot is full of high quality 12-step inspected preowned bathwear right here and our goal is to help you find one that's perfect for you. what's it gonna take to put you in this silk robe today?

 

[Sensei]

The chart for the W4500 on Yahoo! Finance appears to be broken today. It seems to happen a lot. Oh well.

I also happened to click on the "Best Blogs" link in the forum, and stumbled upon some blogs by Bullitt. It looks like he abruptly stopped blogging in December 2010, but had quite a bit to say prior to that. What happened? That was around the time I found this site and was lurking.

Anyhoo, time to knock off. Markets look like they're going to chop around and probably end up mildly in the red again. Run of the mill consolidation, or flat top? You tell me. But I'm going to keep my hand in the game at least until Friday or Monday - strong seasonality around those days. If either are up big, that could be a good day to sell. We'll have to see how the sentiment survey goes as well. Lots to look forward to...

 

[Birchtree]

I believe Bullitt tended toward the bearish bent and now that the trend has definitely changed toward the secular bull market - well you know. He'll find redemption through capitulation and I'm sure he'll return with a brighter outlook on life and investing.

 

[Cactus]

I believe Bullitt tended toward the bearish bent and now that the trend has definitely changed toward the secular bull market - well you know. He'll find redemption through capitulation and I'm sure he'll return with a brighter outlook on life and investing.

You mean he'll come back in the next bear market?

 

[Sensei]

Something I'm keeping my eye on.



This time last year we formed the head on a big H&S pattern that didn't bottom until June, taking away most of the year's gains from the extended bull market run. The set-up now looks quite similar. I might look to move 50% to the sidelines today or tomorrow.

 

[Bquat]

Something I'm keeping my eye on.

View attachment 22968

This time last year we formed the head on a big H&S pattern that didn't bottom until June, taking away most of the year's gains from the extended bull market run. The set-up now looks quite similar. I might look to move 50% to the sidelines today or tomorrow.

I'm a little nervious today also.

 

[Sensei]

After the 3 down days and test of the 20 MA, I was expecting a two day rebound and test of the upper BB. Today, predictably, the Nikkei was up over 1%. But right now the DAX is down almost 1%, and SPX futures are about -0.1%. It seems pretty volatile.

My thought was to stick it out in stocks until we get the sentiment survey results, but I think I'm about to jump to the side. I'll give it a few more hours and make my decision before bedtime. I'm currently up 11.5% YTD. It would sure be nice to not lose it...

 

[Sensei]

Made the IFT. 100% G. Looks like it might have been too little too late. The futures are taking a sharp downturn as we head into the opening bell.