Sensei's account talk

[uscfanhawaii]

Hey, Sensei, come on over to Hawaii for the Honolulu Marathon....first Sunday in December. I signed up for it this year....since this is the last chance for me to do a marathon before I turn 60!! :blink:

 

[Sensei]

Hey, Sensei, come on over to Hawaii for the Honolulu Marathon....first Sunday in December. I signed up for it this year....since this is the last chance for me to do a marathon before I turn 60!! :blink:

Good for you, uscfan! About half-way through, I passed a man who had a sign on his back that said in English "Only 75". Then, about 2 miles from the end, a little old lady in a pink-floral spandex outfit trotted past me. She knew what she was doing - saving it for the end. Gotta respect the experience that comes with years.

 

[Kaufmanrider]

I did it - all 26.2 miles. I missed my goal of 4 hours by a long shot. It took 4:28, but not bad for a guy running his first marathon at 37. I had run 18.5 miles previously in only 2:33, but I ran a flatter course, and I was all by myself without having to worry about tripping over the 10,000 people who started ahead of me. It was definitely a learning experience, and very gratifying. Thanks for all your well wishes!

Torii's nice - a lot of Americans choose to live over there because of the nices beaches. I work at Kadena AB, but live on the Pacific side of the island.

Congrats. I was Army MP, K-9. Spent a lot of time patrolling the beach.

Our kennels were over at Kadena, I am very familiar with the base, or was. Is BC street still around?

 

[Handballer]

Congratulations on your run. A time of 4:28 not bad for first marathon. Next year you will be a little older and wiser and do better. Lots of runners improve with age.

 

[Handballer]

The only way I would run 26.5 miles is if some maniac with a knife were chasing me.:laugh: Good work Sensei, you'll do better next time.

Marathon is 26.2 miles.

 

[Handballer]

Hey, Sensei, come on over to Hawaii for the Honolulu Marathon....first Sunday in December. I signed up for it this year....since this is the last chance for me to do a marathon before I turn 60!! :blink:

I ran the Honolulu Marathon twice on my birthday when it fell on the first sunday in December. Then it changed to the second Sunday in December. Glad to see it on the first Sunday again. I may give it another shot.

 

[nnuut]

Marathon is 26.2 miles.

When you're me you realize that you can't run so you have to stop and fight!

 

[Scout333]

When you're me you realize that you can't run so you have to stop and fight! View attachment 22469

Just remember when the bear is after you you only have to outrun One of your competitors.

 

[Sensei]

Man, I jumped the gun with my IFT. My self-imposed rule for a bull market is wait one day after a close below the 20 day SMA. If you don't see a bounce by the deadline, bail. But yesterday's losses were fast and furious, and I thought Friday would surely see a drop to the lower bollinger band, if not all the way to the 50 day SMA. Now the futures are looking good, sentiment is nice and beared up, and we appear about to bounce. Shoot. Just the other day I was up 8%. Now I'm only up 5%. Not bad for less than two months, but still.

Even if we bounce, it doesn't seem like typical healthy consolidation in a bull market when the market dumps 3% in two days. I get the sense that the landscape is changing. So here's a longer term chart to ponder.



Tom has talked about being near the top of an intermediate term trading range, but are we in a bearish rising wedge on this 5 year chart? Don't get me wrong - I'm not a bear by any means, and I'd love to jump back on the gravy train and watch the market take off to new highs. But I don't want to get sucked down into an inferno either. Gotta start thinking about what to do when the bull becomes a steer.

100% G... for now.

 

[WorkFE]

5% with ten months left. Pick your spots, you are doing well.

 

[Sensei]

Wow, I'm a fantastic genius. I stayed in long enough to lose 3%, then stepped out only to watch an enormous bounce. Based on Japan and Europe, looks like we're due for about 2% today. So I've screwed myself out of 5-6%. Nice going. I think I hear Birchtree laughing at me.

 

[maverick06]

no worries. I've done that a lot.... waaaaaaay too much. This time I rode it down (was busy at work one day and the other day figured, why not). The plus side is that I was able to ride it back up. I am begining to slowly see that I am not smart enough nor attentive enough to catch the fast moves, only the longer term stuff. So when in doubt, I usually just leave it in.

Remember, if you are positive you are winning. 1063 people are in the tracker, 968 people are positive. Inflation is about 1.6% for the year, so that puts 683 people in the green! Some people just win a lot more than most... way more than i do.

 

[wavecoder]

Wow, I'm a fantastic genius. I stayed in long enough to lose 3%, then stepped out only to watch an enormous bounce. Based on Japan and Europe, looks like we're due for about 2% today. So I've screwed myself out of 5-6%. Nice going. I think I hear Birchtree laughing at me.

seems like your timing was pretty good to me.

 

[Sensei]

I made a couple frantic maneuvers in the dark of night, and wound up dodging one really big down day to pull my butt out of the fryer for February. I was excited to be sitting in stocks 100% as we start the month of March, but the futures look pretty disappointing. The SPX chart looks awful. Doesn't seem to fit any familiar pattern by my untrained eye. I'm kind of thinking the recent pullback created a left-shoulder, and hoping that March will create the head with a high around 1540. Then I think one would be safe jumping out for a while.

Been a rough week. I'm tired. Don't have the energy to follow the action. Anyway, I'm 100% S, and I think if I turn away for a few days, I'll be rewarded with higher prices.

 

[clester]

I made a couple frantic maneuvers in the dark of night, and wound up dodging one really big down day to pull my butt out of the fryer for February. I was excited to be sitting in stocks 100% as we start the month of March, but the futures look pretty disappointing. The SPX chart looks awful. Doesn't seem to fit any familiar pattern by my untrained eye. I'm kind of thinking the recent pullback created a left-shoulder, and hoping that March will create the head with a high around 1540. Then I think one would be safe jumping out for a while.

Been a rough week. I'm tired. Don't have the energy to follow the action. Anyway, I'm 100% S, and I think if I turn away for a few days, I'll be rewarded with higher prices.

We could be forming a small inverted head and shoulders.

 

[Sensei]

We could be forming a small inverted head and shoulders.

Why, now that you mention it, I do kind of see that. Funny how I missed it. We'll see how it plays out.

 

[Sensei]

Futures look like crap. Asia dumped hard, with the exception of the Nikkei, which benefited from more weakness in the yen. If we close below the 20 day SMA today, I'll have my thumb hovering over the eject button for Tuesday. I'd really like to see a rally up to 1540 before another pullback.

 

[Birchtree]

On Friday the market opened down 116 and then decided to reverse and eventually closed ahead +35. Lots of rotation happening intraday.

 

[Sensei]

I circled the 5 instances in the last 6 months that the S&P broke through the upper bollinger band. 3 times resulted in an immediate pullback. 1 time was just sideways consolidation, followed by prolonged strength. Which way will we go this time?



*(And, of course I already see that I missed the first occasion, which was also sideways consolidation. Doh! Still, the question remains - which way do we go?)

 

[Sensei]

According to Ocean's List, almost 58% of TSPTalkers are in G or F. Why so defensive? If that's representative of the average Joe investor's position, I think there could be a bit more hurt to the upside.