Sensei's account talk

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bmneveu said:
This morning is turning out to be a dive for the US markets. Does this change anything for you? S&P is just above 1300 right now. My emotions are on the fence. Don't know whether to be scared or to take advantage of the cheap prices!
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We'll see. Even if there is farther to drop, as long as I can buy back in below 1340, my previous trade was better than buy and hold. That's the optomistic way of looking at it I guess.
nnuut said:
Calling a BOTTOM is almost impossible, waiting for confirmation of a turn around is the best method.
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I won't argue with that.
 
Calling a bottom may be impossible -- relevant to getting back in. As to being in, cutting one's losses on most likely outcome is wise. Uptrend says get out. Tony Caldaro just changed his waves to the same as Daneric (Daneric's Elliott Waves . blogspot), in line with Tom's bear flag. The bear is back. SigmaTradingOscillator on safehaven.com also just said the same thing. That's five sober advisers in agreement. Not to bet against. I'm glad to see that Nordic got out already. TheWaveTrading on SH opines, "New lows will follow. Price involved in corrective countertrend rebound. The corrective pattern may not be over". It looks like it is over.
 
I know I should have waited for the bounce and let my 36% participate before buying back in, but I just couldn't resist these prices. Even if we continue south, my buy in price now is the same as it was January 2nd, but I have a 5% gain in my pocket. Not exactly tearing it up, but I'll take it.

100% S

Bought in at SPX 1278, W4500 636.
 
Top 50 are overwhelmingly in G & F (83%). Bottom 50 are overwhelmingly in stocks (94%). The herd is about 50/50. Time for a rebalance.
 
Just a quick update of my chart, followed by a few notes.
SPX 2012_06_07.png
Today's open jumped the 20 day SMA, so if it holds into the close, I'll look for resistance at the 50 day.

From Ocean's List:
The Herd is about 40/60 GF/CSI - starting to get bullish.
The top 50 are 50/50.
Bottom 50 are 35/65.

So we're getting into toss a coin territory. As we approach the 50 day SMA, the top 50 and herd ought to tip in the direction of stocks, while the bottom 50 evens out. Probably a day or two more and I'll take a little off the table. I've been following Boghie's thread lately. Admire his style. Will probably not move more than 50 percent out until we get good and close to July's shiny IFTs. Good luck!
 
Scratching my head wondering why Spain bailing out its banks to the tune of $125 billion could be a positive catalyst for the market. Then, sure enough, the gains in the European indices and U.S. futures start evaporating. If I had two IFTs, I'd sell today and look to buy back in at a test of the 200 day SMA. But I already used an IFT to catch the falling knife (didn't hurt a bit! :cool:), so I'll probably just hold my position in anticipation of this playing out:
SPX 2012_06_10.png
 
Sensei said:
Scratching my head wondering why Spain bailing out its banks to the tune of $125 billion could be a positive catalyst for the market. Then, sure enough, the gains in the European indices and U.S. futures start evaporating. If I had two IFTs, I'd sell today and look to buy back in at a test of the 200 day SMA. But I already used an IFT to catch the falling knife (didn't hurt a bit! :cool:), so I'll probably just hold my position in anticipation of this playing out:
View attachment 19192
Click to expand...

I agree - I don't get it either??????
 
Good news first: I'm now officially on summer vacation. No part-time work available to me this year, so I'll have to be extra careful to avoid spending money. Work not only makes you money, but prevents you from spending it.

Now on to my TSP account. Flopping around in the S-fund, which this week brought all the normal risk without the extra return. With the S&P now testing the 50 day SMA, it's tempting to step out. But that would use my last IFT, and there are 10 trading days left in June. I bought in at SPX1277, and the last intraday low was 1266, so I feel like even if we end up testing that, I won't be in for too big a loss. There is risk in stepping out and missing a big rally.

Later, if I have more time, I'll revisit my Inverse H&S chart to see how I'm doing with the TA. :)
 
Well, looks like I had more time. I'm thinking a test of the head before the big rally. It could be very quick though. Everyone is expecting fireworks after the Greek elections this weekend.

SPX 06_15_2012.png

The other way I'm thinking this could go is just another mounting wall of worry until we get back near to the highs of this year. That would trick the bears who stay out now to capitulate and buy in at a higher price. Then, whoosh. Back down to the lows later this summer.
 
Sensei said:
...
The other way I'm thinking this could go is just another mounting wall of worry until we get back near to the highs of this year. That would trick the bears who stay out now to capitulate and buy in at a higher price. Then, whoosh. Back down to the lows later this summer.
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So far it looks like a wall of worry is building. SPX closed above the 50 day SMA, so I'm looking for that to be support now. As long as I don't sell, I'm guaranteed to outperform the S fund :toung:
.

I'm glad to see some past and present regulars on the top ten list for this month. Skooby, Afishegg, Aviator Guy, Malyla, Big John. Congrats! I'm especially glad to see AG bust the top 50. His was the first thread I followed back in my "lurking" days. Here's hoping we all make a million dollars this year!
 
Sensei said:
So far it looks like a wall of worry is building. SPX closed above the 50 day SMA, so I'm looking for that to be support now. As long as I don't sell, I'm guaranteed to outperform the S fund :toung:
.

I'm glad to see some past and present regulars on the top ten list for this month. Skooby, Afishegg, Aviator Guy, Malyla, Big John. Congrats! I'm especially glad to see AG bust the top 50. His was the first thread I followed back in my "lurking" days. Here's hoping we all make a million dollars this year!
Click to expand...

I'll be happy for $50,000.00 this year. :laugh:
 
Please read & "like" on FB

https://www.facebook.com/#!/JusticeForEddie

I was hesitant to share info on the above murder case, as the victim is one of my students. But Eddie's father very clearly wants his son's story told, so if you are interested/moved, please read and "like".

Respectfully,

Eddie's Sensei
 
Yeah, yesterday was tough. Glad I slept through it. But, then again, I sleep through the good days too - no way around it with the time difference here. Anyway, I woke up, shrugged at the loss, went for a jog, got my daughter ready for school, and enjoyed the rest of the day with my wife and son. Summer vacation is a beautiful thing, and I have 28 more years to make up the loss. Hey Birchtree, what do you figure the DOW will be worth in 2040? Haha!

I must keep in mind that I bought into the market at SPX 1277 (can't remember, but I think the W45K was around 636). There's still a lot of June left, so I'll just sit where I am and see how it plays out.
 
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