Sensei's account talk

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I took a little out of stocks, and redistributed what I left in across C/S/I. Not my favorite strategy, but with only 2 IFTs, I'm not confident enough to go 100% either way right now. Here's the new position:

F - 35%
C - 35%
S - 20%
I - 10%

Depending on where this market goes, I might continue dumping stocks and heading for G as we head into October.
 
Re-adjustment. New allocation looks like this:

G - 10%
F - 35%
C - 30%
S - 15%
I - 10%

Today is looking like it's going to head south. Might bail out of stocks entirely after seeing how we close.
 
I ended up dumping my stocks, and now sit 35% F, 65% G. The good news is that I recouped some of my losses from Wednesday before bailing, but the bad news is that the big money stepped up buying at the end of the session, and now momentum appears to be headed back up. Our sentiment survey is leaning slightly bearish, so I think tomorrow will be green. After that, I don't know. Probably more zigzagging. I'll look to re-enter sometime in October when/if we dip below S&P 1150-60.
 
When making my last IFT, I saw that my losses this quarter have been about $100 more than my contributions. Wasted money.

The good news is that I'm going to finish September with a 4% gain (mas o menos). I was #11 MTD on the tracker today - just going to miss a coffee mug!

I've been thinking back a lot over what I've learned this year, trying to control my TSP investment. My first tack was to follow the sentiment survey. Everyone's advice is to stick to whatever system through thick and thin. Well, I stuck with it to the tune of about a 25% loss. I think it's a great system as long as the market is in a trend, but it doesn't read the transition from pullback to correction to bear market. So what I'm now trying to do is sell at what I think is likely to be the end of a rally (thanks a bunch to Tom, JTH, and others for their charts), look for the price to go down, and buy back in again. Sounds easy enough. Of course, the IFT restrictions really complicate it. Anyway, it worked well this month, as we traded within a nice, tidy range. I just stayed on the sidelines until the last week, jumped in for a few days, and came out smelling like a rose.

So, it will definitely be interesting to see how October shakes out. It seems to me like this range we've been in is not in fact a bear flag, but rather a sideways range between 1120-1225. Basically, I'm thinking it might be a bottom. Right before the big crash, we had topped for some 3 months or so, trading in a similar sideways range. So, in a sense, I'm starting to feel like the next time we get down to 1120-30, maybe I should buy and hold for a while. As Birchtree likes to say, "Time in the market is sometimes more valuable than timing the market". We shall see...
 
It's an hour before open, and despite big losses in Asia and Europe, our futures aren't even down a half percent. Which means no gap, which means no short-term bounce, which means I stay on the side for another day.
 
Sensei said:
It's an hour before open, and despite big losses in Asia and Europe, our futures aren't even down a half percent. Which means no gap, which means no short-term bounce, which means I stay on the side for another day.
Click to expand...

Looking more better now: Index Futures: S&P 500 /quotes/zigman/1036078 1,123.25 -2.75 -0.24%
 
Well, I stand somewhat corrected. There is about a 7 point gap down in the S&P at the start here. Let's wait and see if it gets filled intraday.
 
Russell 2000.jpg
It's that day in early August that scares me. After several down days, it looks like we're bottoming. Time to jump back in. Then... thud. Down another 10% or so.

I'd love to jump in and take advantage of the deeply discounted price on the S-fund, but what if we're about to get a repeat of August? :sick:
 
Yesterday you said "After several down days, it looks like we're bottoming. Time to jump back in. Then..." good call! :)
 
Handballer said:
Yesterday you said "After several down days, it looks like we're bottoming. Time to jump back in. Then..." good call! :)
Click to expand...

Yeah, but I was actually referring to that one white spot on the R2K chart in early August. It looked like the slide was coming to an end, but if you had jumped on board, you would have seen another drop of something like 10%. That's what makes me gunshy, and what made me miss out on yesterday's rally. Glad you got to take advantage of it. It was a big bounce. I'm going to wait for a better entry point later this month.
 
Sensei said:
...I'm going to wait for a better entry point later this month.
Click to expand...

:sick:

There probably won't be a better entry point this month. Asia & Europe are up again. Futures are up again. This looks like the beginning of a bull market. I'd like to be able to buy a dip this month, then probably hang on for the rest of my life. I'm beginning to lose faith in trading, and starting to think buy and hold is the way to go. I'm just not smart or informed enough to win this game, and the limitations on trades make it crucial to never make a mistake.
 
Sensei said:
:sick:

There probably won't be a better entry point this month. Asia & Europe are up again. Futures are up again. This looks like the beginning of a bull market. I'd like to be able to buy a dip this month, then probably hang on for the rest of my life. I'm beginning to lose faith in trading, and starting to think buy and hold is the way to go. I'm just not smart or informed enough to win this game, and the limitations on trades make it crucial to never make a mistake.
Click to expand...
Probably because this is a highly manipulated market by the fed and high speed traders... neither are appreciated...
 
Sensei said:
:sick:

and the limitations on trades make it crucial to never make a mistake.
Click to expand...

Interesting note, in 2006 and 2007 there were no limits, here's the results: In 2006, Fundsurfer ended the year up 24.40% with 87 IFT's. In 2007, pogo ended the year up 21.44%. There are people on the tracker who have already beat those returns with far fewer IFT's. Wish I could do it.
 
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...3010655890.html?mod=WSJASIA_hpp_MIDDLETopNews
IMF Urges Japan to Do More to Cut Debt

Japan is the next Greece. Actually, their debt is something like 10Xs that of Greece. Twice the annual GDP. This is what happens when the entire society becomes middle class, too many women pass on motherhood to enter the work force, and foreigners are discouraged from entering the country as cheap labor. You end up producing fewer children to feed the workforce necessary to support an aging population that won't die because of advances in medicine. And you buy everything you need from other countries, rather than producing it yourself.

It would be nice to see Japan get proactive on curbing their debt before it starts to drag down global markets, but as long as the DPJ is in control, I don't see it happening. Got to get back to the LDP. Koizumi's son is an up-and-comer. Look out for him in years to come.

:cool:
 
I'm looking to re-enter the S-fund when the NASDAQ fills the gap below 2550. However, if we gap lower today, the question will be whether we continue lower, or fill the gap above first. Tough call. My patience will be tested, but I must be strong.:suspicious:

101811c.gif
 
I went 100% S COB Friday. I'm not crazy about it. It means I'm buying at a higher price than I sold at the end of September. But I don't see any clear indication that we've topped and are about to head lower, and the fact that it is 2011 and the S&P is still at 1998 prices is reason enough for me to want back in.

I'm still concerned about the gap in the Nasdaq below 2550. I think we'll go back down once more to fill that before transitioning to a bull market. I just hope it doesn't happen for another week or so.;)
 
Still languishing with the 600 Club. More importantly, I'm still 6.9% behind the L2040, which is where I had my money before "taking control" of my TSP last year. I feel like I've driven it off a cliff rather than taking control.

For the time being, I'm going to hold S. While a lot of people are drawing a lot of imaginary lines of support and resistance on the charts, what I notice is that lately we've had more variety of up and down days with a general trend higher. Previously we would have 3-5 up days followed by 3-5 down days, and the cycle would repeat. Kind of easy to trade. Now, though, I think we're starting to establish an uptrend, and if I tried to step out of it, I'd just be burning myself again. So, unless we start to put together a string of red days, I think I'll stay invested.
 
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