Sensei's account talk

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Thanks guys...

Now on to today. Oil is up, USD is up, small caps and Transports are down. Everyone's "systems" seem to be turning to sells. It seems like there are a dozen reasons to get out of the market, but the S&P has not shown any divergence yet from the typical pattern throughout this bull market. My "gut" tells me to step to the side. I could take my 8% this year and wait for what I think would be a safer time, but maybe that's just what the Wizard of Oz wants us all to do. The great Birchtree likes to remind us that "sometimes time in the market is more valuable than timing the market". In a bull market like this, I tend to agree.

I looked at the 100 day SMA today, and saw that it is just about at a convergence with the 200 SMA. If memory serves me right, that was a time of weakness in the last bull market, but if you had hung in, it would have paid off down the road. Maybe the same scenario is playing out here? Much to consider.
 
The dollar is on fire against the yen this month. When I had to pay rent at the beginning of February, it was a little over ￥74/$1. Today, the rate out in town is ￥79.8/$1. That's a 9% increase! Don't tell the skunks that calculate COLA - I figure they'll slash back my allowance at about ￥82. :notrust:

So if the dollar is showing strength, one might expect oil to show weakness. That ought to be, in turn, a good thing for most companies and their stocks, right? Yet the DAX is down very hard right now. I'm predicting today as the first day this year that the S&P loses more than 1%. The 20 day SMA is, in fact, 20 points below. That just so happens to be -1.5%. I'm certain that we'll see a close right around that point. Then we'll all be scratching our heads as to whether it will hold as support. Some will flinch, others will cinch (up the sticky pants). I wish this wasn't about to happen during the last three days of the month. I don't want to start March on the sidelines, but if we close below the 20, that's my plan.
 
Wow, I've been checking Ocean's list from time to time over the last couple weeks.
TSP Talk AutoTracker
It had been pretty consistently showing 64% of the total tracker being in G or F. Now it shows just under 50% in those funds. That, combined with a fairly bullish Sentiment Survey, has me feeling a little less confident in the trend. I'll be watching closely tonight.
 
Became violently ill at the end of the work day on Monday, and stayed home today. :sick: Slept about 14 hours though. Back to work tomorrow.

I'm not going to be able to stay up to watch our open, so going based on the DAX, my guess is the S&P is headed for a close below the 20 day SMA. So, I'm thinking about jumping to G or F for a while. Will decide in an hour or two before hitting the hay.
 
All right, a lot sucks here. My plan was to get out on a close below the 20 day SMA on the SPX. I didn't plan for an all out bomb below it, closing in no-man's land between the 20 and 50 SMA. Now the DAX is building a nasty intraday Head & Shoulders that looks like it could take our market even lower today. So time to panic? Let's look at the old 2010-11 bull market:

big.chart

Look at Nov 2010. The one time the SPX bombed through the 20 SMA, similar to yesterday. Before hitting the 50, it crept back up to the 20, then headed down and made a W (triple-U?). I think the thing for me to do now is hold on until we make an approximation of the 20 day, then sell out for a couple days. Sounds too simple and predictable, so I'm sure something will mess me up - like gap up to the 20 day at the open and crash down intraday. Whatever will be will be. I don't think it's time to panic as long as price and the 20 day SMA remain above the 50.
 
Sensei, may I ask your opinion of the Feb. 2011 piercing of the 20 SMA? To my eye, that also looks similar to Nov. 10, and yesterday's action.

I agree with your conclusion, but then again, I'm out and looking for a chance to get back in.
 
FishSqueezer said:
Sensei, may I ask your opinion of the Feb. 2011 piercing of the 20 SMA? To my eye, that also looks similar to Nov. 10, and yesterday's action.

I agree with your conclusion, but then again, I'm out and looking for a chance to get back in.
Click to expand...
I think that's actually late January '11. Egypt or Libya happened, I think. Quick dip down, basically finding support (yeah, it pierced below, but bounced right back) at the 20. Sometimes price finds support/resistance before hitting the moving averages, sometimes it pierces them a little. Imperfect science designed to keep the house winning and us frustrated. :rolleyes:
 
Looks to me like a "W" is brewing in the S&P chart. I don't know if we'll start going down today or tomorrow, but it would be nice if one of the 20 day averages holds. The SMA is probably too close, but the EMA is about 10 points below at 1360. Still quite close. Wish I knew now how it will play out 2 days from now. Oh well.

The nice thing about daylight savings is that the stock market opens at 10:30PM over here, so I will be able to watch a little of the morning session before going to bed. Yippee!
 
Sensei said:
Looks to me like a "W" is brewing in the S&P chart. I don't know if we'll start going down today or tomorrow, but it would be nice if one of the 20 day averages holds. The SMA is probably too close, but the EMA is about 10 points below at 1360. Still quite close. Wish I knew now how it will play out 2 days from now. Oh well.

The nice thing about daylight savings is that the stock market opens at 10:30PM over here, so I will be able to watch a little of the morning session before going to bed. Yippee!
Click to expand...

What part of the world are you in?
 
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